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华盛顿邮报

民调亚裔美国人面临统计学上的挑战。以下是我们的做法Polling Arab Americans is statistically challenging. Here’s what we did.

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布朗克斯被称为“小也门”的一个地区。(John Marshall Mantel/Zuma Press/Reuters Connect)An area in the Bronx known as Little Yemen. (John Marshall Mantel/Zuma Press/Reuters Connect)

我们采用了双管齐下的方法来识别并调查具有代表性的阿拉伯裔美国人样本,他们约占美国人口的1%。

We used a two-pronged approach to identify and survey a representative sample of Arab Americans, who make up about 1 percent of the U.S. population.

当《华盛顿邮报》与乔治·梅森大学的沙尔政策与政府学院首次探讨对阿拉伯裔美国人进行全国代表性调查时,尚不清楚这是否可行。

When The Washington Post and George Mason University’s Schar School of Policy and Government first explored conducting a nationally representative survey of Arab Americans, it wasn’t clear whether it was possible.

过去关于阿拉伯裔美国人的高质量调查非常少,近几十年来仅限于阿拉伯美国人研究所开展的一系列调查。

There have been very few high-quality surveys of Arab Americans, limited to a series of surveys by the Arab American Institute in recent decades.

大多数全国性民调能够对美国男性和女性、或民主党人和共和党人等广泛且庞大的群体进行结果比较。准确捕捉较小群体的观点一直是一个持续的挑战。人口普查局报告称,仅有1%的美国人拥有主要阿拉伯国家的血统。这意味着,一个包含1000名成人的传统随机调查预计只能接触到10名阿拉伯裔美国人。

Most national polls are able to compare results across broad and very large groups such as men and women in the United States, or Democrats and Republicans. Accurately capturing the views of smaller groups is a persistent challenge. The Census Bureau reports that just 1 percent of Americans have ancestry in predominantly Arab countries. That means that a traditional randomized survey of 1,000 adults could expect to reach only 10 Arab Americans.

《华盛顿邮报》、沙尔学院以及民调研究公司SSRS合作采用了两种方法来解决该问题,并获取了全美阿拉伯裔美国人的代表性样本。

The Post, the Schar School and the survey research firm SSRS collaborated to use two approaches to solve that problem and reach a representative sample of Arab Americans in the U.S.

第一个样本来源是SSRS的概率小组,其中包含约5万名成年人。该调查小组是通过多年来向全美美国家庭随机邮寄信件、邀请他们通过网络或电话参与定期调查而组建的,并为参与者提供少量奖励。SSRS询问所有小组成员是否有阿拉伯血统,其中478人(约1%)回答是,该群体中有245人完成了民调。

The first sample source was SSRS’s Probability Panel, which includes about 50,000 adults. This survey panel was recruited over many years by mailing random samples of U.S. households an invitation to take regular surveys online or by phone, offering small incentives for participating. SSRS asked all panel members whether they had Arab ancestry, with 478 (about 1 percent) saying yes, and 245 of that group completing the poll.

民调采样受访者的第二种方法是,根据全美消费者数据库中根据名或姓以及人口普查局的当地族裔数据,向可能具有阿拉伯血统的家庭发送明信片邀请函。

The second way the poll sampled respondents was by sending postcard invitations to households identified on a national consumer database as likely to be of Arab descent based on their first or last names, as well as local ethnicity data from the Census Bureau.

*这两种方法互为补充。SSRS小组确保了样本在美国地理上的代表性,而名册样本则有助于接触到不太可能参与典型调查的阿拉伯裔美国成年人。例如,通过名册样本接触到的受访者中有三分之二在家说英语以外的其他语言,而在概率小组中接触到的受访者这一比例不到一半。

The two methods complemented each other. The SSRS panel ensured the sample was geographically representative of the U.S., while the listed sample helped reach Arab American adults who are less likely to take a typical survey. For instance, two-thirds of respondents reached via the listed sample spoke another language than English at home, compared with less than half of those reached from the probability panel.

该调查面临的另一个挑战是界定谁属于阿拉伯裔美国人。虽然阿拉伯血统的名单已确立,但来自这些国家的许多移民并不认为自己是阿拉伯人,例如北非的柏柏尔人。

Another challenge for the survey was defining who counts as an Arab American. While the list of Arab ancestries is well established, many immigrants from those countries do not identify as Arab, such as Berbers in North Africa.

《华盛顿邮报》和沙尔学院决定依靠血统和个人认同的结合。除了拥有阿拉伯国家血统外,受访者还必须在个人认同上认为是阿拉伯人,才能被描述为阿拉伯裔美国人并被纳 入调查。

The Post and the Schar School decided to rely on a combination of ancestry and personal identity. In addition to having ancestry in an Arab country, respondents needed to personally identify as Arab to be described as Arab American and included in the survey.

人口普查局为该民调提供了另一个有价值的支柱:具有阿拉伯血统成年人人口统计数据的全国基准。该民调中具有阿拉伯国家血统的成年人样本经过了校准,以与人口普查数据相匹配,从而确保调查准确反映了阿拉伯人群的年龄、性别、教育程度、出生地、地区以及在家使用的语言。

The Census Bureau provided another valuable backbone for the poll: national benchmarks for the demographics of adults with Arab ancestry. The poll’s sample of adults with Arab national ancestry was calibrated to match census data, to ensure that the survey accurately reflected Arab population by age, gender, education, nativity, region and languages spoken at home.

《华盛顿邮报》与多位阿拉伯裔美国人生活和公众舆论专家分享了该民调的问卷草案,收到了来自马里兰大学国际事务教授希布利·泰尔哈米、本特利大学教授加里·戴维以及乔治·梅森大学教授彼得·曼达维尔的反馈。随后,《华盛顿邮报》和沙尔学院对调查的方法论和问题措辞做出了最终决定,力求确保以清晰公正的方式提出问题,并与针对普通公众和其他族裔群体的调查进行可靠的比较。

The Post shared draft questionnaires for the poll with several experts on Arab American life and public opinion, receiving feedback from Shibley Telhami, a professor of international affairs at the University of Maryland; Bentley University professor Gary David; and George Mason University professor Peter Mandaville. The Post and the Schar School then made final decisions on methodology and question wording for the survey, seeking to ensure questions were asked in a clear and fair manner, with reliable comparisons to surveys of the general public and other ethnic groups.

阅读阿拉伯裔美国人民调的完整结果,包括问题措辞和详细方法论。

Read full results from the Arab Americans poll, including question wording and detailed methodology.

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