罗布·吉利斯 埃德蒙顿，阿尔伯塔省 — — 数十年来，阿尔伯塔分离主义一直是一个边缘议题。周一，加拿大石油心脏地带的选民将决定是否迈出举行脱离国家公投的第一步。
ROB GILLIES EDMONTON, Alberta — For decades, Alberta separatism was a fringe cause. On Monday, voters in Canada’s oil heartland will decide whether to take the first step toward a referendum on leaving the country.
阿尔伯塔省拥有世界第四大已证实石油储备，但该省不会在10月19日投票决定脱离加拿大。相反，选民将决定该省应继续留在加拿大，还是启动未来举行分离公投的法律程序。
Alberta, home to the world’s fourth-largest proven oil reserves, is not voting to leave Canada on Oct. 19. Instead, voters will decide whether the province should remain in Canada or begin the legal process toward a future referendum on separation .
阿尔伯塔省省长丹妮尔·史密斯发起了此次投票，但她支持留在加拿大。她表示，支持启动分离程序的比例在最近的一项民调中约为23%，“对我而言仍然太高。”阿尔伯塔省长期以来一直就石油问题和联邦权力与联邦政府发生冲突。自由党总理皮埃尔·特鲁多以及数十年后的其子贾斯汀·特鲁多，因能源政策而在该省变得极不受欢迎。
Alberta Premier Danielle Smith , who called the vote but supports remaining in Canada, has said that support for starting the separation process, which was around 23% in a recent poll, is “still too high for my liking.”Alberta has long feuded with the federal government over oil and federal power. Liberal prime ministers Pierre Trudeau and, decades later, his son Justin became deeply unpopular in the province over energy policy.
贾斯汀·特鲁多的政府实施了全国碳税和其他气候措施，阿尔伯塔省领导人称这些措施损害了其石油产业。然而，前阿尔伯塔省省长杰森·肯尼表示，分离主义政党通常只能获得1%或2%的选票。
Justin Trudeau’s government imposed a national carbon tax and other climate measures that Alberta leaders said hurt its oil industry. Yet separatist parties typically drew only 1% or 2% of the vote, former Alberta Premier Jason Kenney said.
随后爆发了疫情和“自由车队”，后者曾瘫痪加拿大首都渥太华的部分地区，并封锁了主要的加美边境口岸。
Then came the pandemic and the Freedom Convoy , which paralyzed parts of Ottawa, the Canadian capital, and blocked major Canada-U.S. border crossings.
肯尼告诉美联社：“他们需要一个新的议题。”他补充说，“这自然演变成了分离主义。”独立运动领袖杰夫·拉思表示，联邦疫苗规定禁止未接种疫苗的加拿大人乘坐飞机，这成为他的转折点。
“They needed a new cause,” Kenney told The Associated Press. “And it naturally morphed into separatism.”Jeff Rath, a leader of the independence movement, said federal vaccine rules preventing unvaccinated Canadians from flying were his breaking point.
拉思回忆道，他曾对朋友说：“如果特鲁多不让我离开阿尔伯塔，我就只能把整个省份打包带走。”“新冠疫情真的成了压垮骆驼的最后一根稻草。”他还说：“很多人因车队而被激进化。”
“If Trudeau won’t let me leave Alberta, I’m just going to pick up my whole province and go,” Rath recalled telling a friend. “COVID was really the straw that broke the camel’s back.”“A lot of people were radicalized by the convoy,” he said.
2022年的“自由车队”起初是因跨境卡车司机的疫苗要求而爆发，但后来演变成了对疫情限制的更广泛反抗。
The 2022 Freedom Convoy began over vaccine requirements for cross-border truckers but grew into a broader revolt against pandemic restrictions .
肯尼说，人们因对全球化、疫苗和疫情限制的愤怒而动员起来，而社交媒体使得此前孤立的活动人士能够相互找到并组织起来。“他们找到了彼此，也找到了一个事业，”肯尼说。
Kenney said people mobilized over anger at globalization, vaccines and pandemic restrictions, while social media allowed previously isolated activists to find one another and organize. “They found each other and they found a cause,” Kenney said.
肯尼说，该运动也变得更加专业化，建立了组织、筹集了资金，并吸引了具有竞选和筹款经验的政治操盘手。
Kenney said the movement also became more professional, building organizations, raising money and drawing in political operatives with campaign and fundraising experience.
他还认为，分离主义活动人士与支持俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔·普京的人，或相信乌克兰总统弗拉基米尔·泽连斯基阴谋论的人之间存在大量重叠。
He also sees substantial overlap between separatist activists and people who support Russian President Vladimir Putin or believe conspiracy theories about Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
肯尼强调，他所描述的是活动人士，而非典型的分离主义选民，他将后者描述为感到沮丧的阿尔伯塔人，他们正在向渥太华传递一个信息。
Kenney stressed he was describing activists, not typical separation voters, whom he characterized as frustrated Albertans sending Ottawa a message.
肯尼说，MAGA运动对一些分离主义活动人士来说是“有启发性的”。他说，他们“尝试渗透，并且至少取得了一定成功”他所创立的联合保守党。史密斯在2022年取代了肯尼的职位，此前她通过吸引因新冠疫情限制而愤怒的联合保守党成员而上台。
Kenney said the MAGA movement has been “inspirational” for some separatist activists. He said they “tried to infiltrate with at least some success” the United Conservative Party he founded. Smith replaced Kenney in 2022 after appealing to United Conservative Party members angry over COVID-19 restrictions.
“字面意思就是，你可以看看这些参与者，”肯尼谈到车队和分离主义运动时说。“他们是同一批人。”总理马克·卡尼一直将将阿尔伯塔石油输送至新市场作为国家优先事项，并支持一条通往西海岸的输油管道提议。他更亲商和亲能源的政策，以及他对美国总统唐纳德·特朗普发动的贸易战和“第51个州”言论的反对，使得联邦自由党领袖在保守派占多数的阿尔伯塔省异常受欢迎。
“Literally, you can look at the players,” Kenney said of the convoy and separatist movements. “It’s the same people.”Prime Minister Mark Carney has made getting Alberta oil to new markets a national priority and backs a proposed pipeline to the West Coast. His more business- and energy-friendly policies, along with his opposition to U.S. President Donald Trump’s trade war and 51st-state rhetoric, have made the federal Liberal leader unusually popular in conservative Alberta.
肯尼是特鲁多对阿尔伯塔政策最突出的保守派批评者之一，他说卡尼“讲的是阿尔伯塔人的语言”，理解该省的不满和诉求，并且在能源问题上正朝着正确的方向前进。
Kenney, one of the most prominent conservative critics of Trudeau’s approach to Alberta, said Carney “speaks as an Albertan,” understands the province’s grievances and aspirations, and is moving in the right direction on energy.
拉思称卡尼是“强大的对手”，并表示“阿尔伯塔省和加拿大的每一位主要政客”都反对分离主义者，并承认这是一场艰难的战斗。他说，如果能获得超过30%的选票，他将“兴奋不已”——这远远低于多数票。
Rath called Carney a “formidable opponent,” saying “every major politician” in Alberta and Canada is against the separatists and acknowledged an uphill battle. He said he would be “thrilled” with more than 30% of the vote — well short of a majority.
“加拿大正面临着对我们经济、安全和生活方式的真实威胁，”卡尼说。“我们必须变得强大，而我们团结起来就会更强大。”阿尔伯塔省大约90%的原油出口流向美国，而分离主义者已将他们的运动直接带到了华盛顿。
“Canada is facing real threats to our economy, to our security, to our way of life,” Carney said. “We have to be strong and we are stronger together.”Alberta sends roughly 90% of its crude oil exports to the United States, and separatists have taken their campaign directly to Washington.
拉思证实，他和其他独立倡导者曾三次与美国国务院官员会面，并提交了一份文件，阐述一个独立的阿尔伯塔能为美国提供什么。
Rath confirmed he and other independence advocates met with U.S. State Department officials three times and presented a document outlining what an independent Alberta could offer the United States.
拉思声称参与会议的人员正直接前往白宫，并且通过美国通往太平洋的可能输油管道“是我们与美国国务院上次会面的一个字面意思的话题”。国务院表示：“该部门定期与各种代表会面。这次投票是阿尔伯塔人民的决定。”
Rath claimed people involved in the meetings were going directly to the White House and that a possible oil pipeline through the U.S. to the Pacific was “literally a topic of our last meeting with the U.S. State Department.”The State Department said that “The Department regularly meets with a wide range of representatives. The vote is a decision for the people of Alberta.”
肯尼称这种外联“行为疯狂”，称那些“没有任何民主授权”的人正在与外国政府讨论“一个不存在的独立州的地位”。
Kenney called the outreach “bonkers,” saying people with “zero democratic mandate” were discussing with a foreign government “the status of a separate state that does not exist.”
美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特曾称阿尔伯塔“是一个天然的合作伙伴”。另一位阿尔伯塔独立运动领袖、2022年车队组织者的首席法律顾问基思·威尔逊表示，分离主义者认为此次投票是赋予阿尔伯塔在与渥太华谈判中更多筹码的一种方式，即使尚未实现独立。
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has called Alberta “a natural partner.”Keith Wilson, another Alberta independence leader who was lead counsel for the 2022 convoy organizers, said separatists see the vote as a way to give Alberta more leverage in dealing with Ottawa, even short of independence.
“的确如此，因为这就是杠杆。这就是谈判，”威尔逊说。他表示，即使不实现独立，他也愿意接受阿尔伯塔与渥太华关系的重大结构性变革。
“That’s right, because it’s called leverage. It’s called negotiation,” Wilson said. He said he would accept substantial structural changes to Alberta’s relationship with Ottawa short of independence.
“我不认为它会退去，”肯尼谈到阿尔伯塔省的分离主义运动时说。即使只有10%到20%的支持率，他指出，这也远远超过了分离主义者历史上的得票率。如果投票率低导致支持率达到30%，“他们将变得更加嚣张。”
“I don’t think it will recede,” Kenney said of the separatist movement in Alberta. Even 10% to 20% support, he noted, would far exceed separatists’ historic vote share. If low turnout pushed them toward 30%, “they’re going to be even more emboldened.”
“这对加拿大来说不是威胁，”肯尼说。“但这对保守运动构成威胁。”阿尔伯塔省不是加拿大面临的唯一国家统一挑战。魁北克选民于10月5日将分离主义的魁北克党重新送上执政地位，尽管支持独立的比例仍约为30%，其领导人表示，在他担任美国总统期间不会举行公投。
“That’s not a threat to Canada,” Kenney said. “But it is a threat to the conservative movement.”Alberta is not Canada’s only national-unity challenge. Quebec voters returned the separatist Parti Quebecois to power Oct. 5, although support for independence remains around 30% and its leader has said he will not hold a referendum while Trump is U.S. president.
魁北克选民曾两次否决独立，最近一次是在1995年公投中以微弱优势否决。
Quebec voters have twice rejected independence, most recently by a razor-thin margin in a 1995 referendum.