
随着民主党对人工智能和能源行业表现出日益增长的敌意,共和党有机会为美国的技术霸权而战,同时也能惠及许多选民。下一代计算将依赖于自然有利于红州农村地区的地理条件,并可能振兴以保守派居民为主的地方经济。
As Democrats show increasing hostility to the artificial intelligence and energy industries, Republicans have an opportunity to fight for American technological supremacy while also benefiting many of their constituents. The next type of computing will be dependent on geography that naturally advantages rural areas in red America and could revive local economies with mostly conservative residents.
土地价格、电网容量以及散热的简单物理特性的结合,为发展红州提供了巨大的自然优势。谷歌本月签署了一项价值43亿美元的巨额协议,计划在爱荷华州重启一座核电站,并在其他几个州升级反应堆,科技巨头将签订为期20年的电力采购协议。首批升级后的电厂预计将在2028年供电。
A combination of land prices, grid capacity and the simple physics of heat dissipation provide a huge natural advantage to developing red states. Google signed a massive $4.3 billion deal this month to reopen a nuclear power plant in Iowa and upgrade reactors in several other states, with the tech giant entering into a 20-year power purchasing agreement. Electricity from the first of the upgraded plants is expected to be delivered in 2028.
与此同时,计划在2028年前建成的新数据中心平均距离主要城市175公里,而上一代数据中心仅为46公里。换句话说,它们正变得越来越农村化。这自然有利于共和党主导的州,因为人工智能革命基础设施的中心日益依赖于其有利的地理条件,而非软件工程师的物理位置。
At the same time, new data centers planned to be built by 2028 sit on average 175 kilometers from major cities, versus 46 kilometers for the last generation. In other words, they’re becoming more rural. This naturally favors Republican dominated states, because the center of the AI revolution’s infrastructure increasingly relies on their favorable geography, instead of the physical location of software engineers.
此外,公司希望在红州建设,因为那里土地便宜,电力传输基础设施可在无需多年诉讼的情况下增添,且工业电价仍具竞争力。监管环境友好且土地可用的地区将在吸引新投资方面获得巨大优势。这相当于将钢厂靠近其支撑的煤矿以减少运输成本的数字等价。
Moreover, companies want to build in red America, where acreage is cheap, electrical transmission infrastructure can be added without multi-year litigation and industrial power prices remain competitive. Locations with a friendly regulatory environment and available land will have a huge advantage to get new investment. It’s the digital equivalent of moving a steel mill closer to its supporting coal mine to reduce transportation costs.
商业房地产公司JLL的分析发现,正在建设中的绝大多数新数据中心将位于2024年投票支持特朗普总统的州。美国提出的三分之二的设施将建在农村县,主要位于南部,作为新一轮商业大迁徙的一部分。这将带来巨大的农村经济繁荣,未来许多共和党选民将受益。
Analyses by the commercial real estate firm JLL found that the vast majority of new data centers under construction will be in states that voted for President Trump in 2024. Two-thirds of proposed U.S. facilities are headed for rural counties, largely in the South, as part of a new great migration of business. The rural economic boom from this will be enormous, and going forward many Republican voters will reap the dividend.
弗吉尼亚州的洛登县目前是世界上数据中心最集中的地区,根据《纽约时报》的报道,明年将从数据中心及相关产业获得13亿美元的税收。这大约占该县收入的40%。这笔意外之财资助了新学校、休闲中心和道路建设。它还使住宅物业税降低了30%。地方官员声称,数据中心在更广泛的经济中支持着1.5万个岗位。毕竟,在模型运行之前,总得有人去开采、精炼和制造材料!
Loudoun County, Virginia, which is currently the largest concentration of data centers in the world, will get $1.3 billion in taxes from data centers and related industries next year. That is roughly 40 percent of the county’s revenue, according to The New York Times. That windfall has funded new schools, recreation centers and road work. It also cut residential property taxes by 30 percent. Local officials claim data centers support 15,000 jobs in the broader economy. After all, before the model can run somebody has to mine, refine and manufacture the materials!
当然,地理因素不是唯一因素。红州的公用事业委员会和立法机构通过加快许可和其他法律事项的进程,进一步放大了这些自然优势。但有利的自然和监管环境集中在过去几个选举周期投票支持共和党的地区,而非蓝色美国。
Geography isn’t the only factor of course. Red-state utility commissions and legislatures have compounded these natural advantages by moving faster on permitting and other legal concerns. But favorable natural and regulatory environments cluster in places that voted Republican in the last several election cycles, not in blue America.
太平洋研究院的一项最近研究发现,软件工程师密集且由民主党主导的加利福尼亚州以鲜明的方式凸显了这一问题。金州一直在推行激进的命令和规定,旨在到2045年实现100%绿色电力,同时关闭了迪亚布洛峡谷核电站。这导致了结构性电力供应短缺,限制了数据中心的增长,因为这些设施无法仅依靠不可靠的太阳能和风能运行。
A recent study by the Pacific Research Institute found that software engineer-heavy and Democrat-led California illustrated the issue in stark terms. The Golden State has pursued aggressive mandates and regulations aiming for 100 percent green electricity by 2045, while shuttering the Diablo Canyon nuclear power plant. This has created structural power supply shortfalls that cap the growth of data centers, as these facilities cannot function on unreliable solar and wind alone.
民主主导的能源政策导致成本上升和法律风险增加,最终失去了经济机遇。尽管加利福尼亚州历来是科技中心,但这些愚蠢的政策实际上对未来经济增长的关键来源构成了事实上的否决权,这种否决权可能比 outright 禁止更持久、更广泛。
Democratic-led energy policies resulted in higher costs and greater legal risks, and ultimately lost economic opportunities. Despite California’s historic status as a tech hub, these foolish policies function as a de facto veto on a key source of future economic growth, a veto potentially more durable and widespread than an outright prohibition.
对能源的意识形态限制可能将战略优势拱手让给中国等外国竞争对手,而这些国家在扩大能源供应或计算能力方面毫无顾忌。
Ideological constraints on energy threaten to hand a strategic advantage to foreign competitors such as China who have no qualms about expanding their energy supply or computational power.
而且许多民主党人不仅通过监管障碍阻碍进步,还在推动 outright 禁令。纽约州民主党众议员亚历山德拉·奥卡西奥-科尔特斯(D-N.Y.)和佛蒙特州独立参议员伯尼·桑德斯(I-Vt.)在七月提出了另一项《人工智能(AI)数据中心暂停法案》,该法案将对新建人工智能数据中心的建设和现有数据中心的扩张实施“临时”联邦暂停。这实际上将把全球经济的可能未来让给他们在中国更为亲技术的意识形态同路人。
And many Democrats aren’t just thwarting progress with regulatory hurdles but are pushing outright bans. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) and Sen. (I-Vt.) Bernie Sanders proposed another Artificial Intelligence (AI) Data Center Moratorium Act in July, which would impose a “temporary” federal pause on the construction of new AI data centers and the expansion of existing ones. This would effectively cede the likely future of the global economy to their far more pro-technology ideological fellow travelers in China.
美国在人工智能软件、算法和前沿模型开发方面领先世界,在与中国的知识软件竞赛中占据决定性优势。然而,即使是像布鲁金斯学会这样的左翼团体也承认,这一优势正日益面临被蓝州能源基础设施故障中和的风险,而这些故障是由优先考虑间歇性可再生能源而非可靠电力的限制性能源政策驱动的。
America leads the world in AI software, algorithms and frontier model development, giving it a decisive edge in the intellectual software race against China. Yet even left-wing groups like the Brookings Institution admit this advantage is increasingly at risk of being neutralized by blue State energy infrastructure failures driven by restrictive energy policies that prioritize intermittent renewables over reliable power.
一个数据中心有时可以在短短两年内建成,但主要的电力输送线路和变电站往往需要长达15年才能建成。这意味着主要瓶颈在于政策。
A data center can sometimes be built in as little as two years, but the major electrical transmission lines and substations often take up to 15 to construct. This means that a major bottleneck is policy.
如果没有丰富、负担得起且始终可用的电力,即使是最优秀的AI模型也无法扩展到所需的大规模计算集群。民主党人把政治胜利银盘奉上给了共和党人,如果共和党人足够明智,能够以强烈的亲增长立场予以反击,这种立场将不成比例地使红州经济受益,同时也能确保美国的技术主导地位。共和党人应该抓住这个机会。安德鲁·福莱特在华盛顿地区的一家非营利组织进行研究分析。
Without abundant, affordable and always-available electricity, even the best AI models cannot scale to the massive compute clusters required. Democrats have handed Republicans a political win on a silver platter, if the Republicans are wise enough to push back with a strong pro-growth stance that disproportionately enriches red state economies, while also ensuring U.S. technological dominance. Republicans should pounce on this one. Andrew Follett conducts research analysis for a nonprofit in the Washington area.