In Kazakhstan’s futuristic capital Astana, car dealer Auyez Kabdygali is planning a big change to his business as he switches from importing European cars to Chinese electric vehicles.

Kabdygali says there is increasing demand for Chinese EVs both from locals and Russian customers due to their competitive price and quality. His grandfather is among the converts – he has an order in for a BYD Han, the carmaker’s flagship model, and plans to collect it from a terminal on the border with China and drive it hundreds of kilometres home.

The 33-year-old car dealer is among a growing number of Kazakhs who hold positive views of China. It is a sentiment driven not just by its EVs, but the economic pay-offs from China’s expanding footprint in Kazakhstan and its posture as a cooperative, non-interfering partner.

Strolling through Astana – a city of more than 1.3 million people – feels much like walking through the most developed major cities in northern China. Its modern architectural landmarks loom over Soviet-era blocks, while a newly opened Chinese-built light rail train runs along the city’s central axis.

China’s footprint can be seen across the city, from the high-rise Beijing Tower to the Chinese consumer goods and cosmetics lining the shelves in stores.

This shift is taking place as the broader Central Asian region has become a more crowded arena for diplomacy, with Beijing and Washington – along with Tokyo and Seoul – all competing for strategic influence.

But observers note that while Beijing has made economic inroads, there is still scepticism towards China in the region and unease over its rivalry with the United States, and Astana is among the capitals trying to balance relations with the two powers. ‘Friendly market’Astana car dealer Kabdygali welcomes investment from China, a country he views as a friendly neighbour with more cultural similarities to Kazakhstan than the US. China for him represents economic support – and enormous market potential.

“[Nearly] all the products we’re buying are Chinese products … so you can say that they are really helping everyday life here,” he said. “China is helping us to maintain the economy.”Kabdygali’s positive views have also been shaped by visits to the country and Chinese friends he made while studying English in Malaysia.

His brother went to Shanghai for a university course in 2007, and Kabdygali regularly visited him during the two years he was there. The whole family later travelled to China’s southern tropical island Hainan for a holiday, and in 2012 they went to Beijing to consult a traditional Chinese medicine practitioner about some health issues.

Today, the young businessman drives a BYD, pays with Alipay at his local coffee shop, and regularly tunes in to a Chinese gaming streamer on YouTube.

Kabdygali is not worried about the country becoming overreliant on China. He said trade with China was “necessary” and the whole world was buying from the country. But he added that he hoped Kazakhstan could export more food and manufactured goods to China to balance the trade deficit. He also shrugged off concerns over the intensifying US-China competition in Kazakhstan and the region.

“China is more of a friendly market. They focus on their own economy and just want to make good products, whereas the US manipulates things. They invade countries and make things worse,” he said.

“If there are no competitors, if there was no US, China would become the US.”Central Asian view After Beijing launched its global infrastructure scheme – the Belt and Road Initiative – in Kazakhstan in 2013 there was a dip in favourable attitudes towards China in both Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan, according to a study in the journal Post-Soviet Affairs in August.

But public sentiment in the two countries has turned more positive since 2021, driven largely by the tangible economic benefits of Chinese investment.

More than 49,000 people were surveyed for the study across Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan between 2017 and 2023.

Jessica Neafie, the paper’s co-author and assistant professor at Kazakhstan’s Nazarbayev University, said that in the early years of the belt and road strategy, the unprecedented exposure to China and a large influx of visible investments in Central Asia triggered a backlash.

She said it fuelled a “mix of concern for foreign investment and its effect on local identity and nationalism”.

The study pointed to the heightened anti-Beijing sentiment that led to a Chinese firm in 2020 scrapping a US$280 million logistics centre project in Kyrgyzstan after hundreds of residents took to the streets in protest.

Neafie said public sentiment had improved since then as tangible economic results were seen and China’s regional image improved.

“A lot of people saw their concerns not come to fruition, but rather see again more jobs, infrastructure and benefits,” she said. “So the ways that they’re exposed to China don’t end up in all cases harming them.”Neafie said respondents to the survey cited Beijing’s policy of non-interference as the top reason they viewed China favourably.

But while there was some improvement, the study found that concerns over Chinese debt and land acquisition had persisted and that continued to have an impact on perceptions of China.

Geopolitical anxieties – particularly fears that closer economic ties with China might jeopardise relations with Russia – remain one of the main drivers of negative sentiment.

“Confidence in the economic benefits of Chinese engagement can coexist with – and in many cases outweigh – anxieties about debt, land and geopolitical realignment, but it does not erase them,” according to the paper.

But Neafie noted that younger people – with more access to social media and more exchanges with Chinese – tended to view China more objectively. She said anxiety over geopolitics was largely found among the older generations who lived through the Sino-Soviet tensions of the 1970s, when Central Asia was part of the Soviet Union.

China in Astana In Astana, the light rail is now the fastest route from the airport to downtown. At the brand new airport station there are turnstiles that support facial recognition technology.

The train runs along an elevated track every five minutes, as it whizzes past the city’s gleaming skyscrapers, monuments and landmark buildings.

Corruption allegations had stalled the project but it eventually began operations in May, more than a decade after it was first proposed.

Built with Chinese technology, standards and equipment it is Central Asia’s first urban light rail and the region’s first fully driverless train system. A second phase of the project to expand the network is now under way, with Chinese-run construction sites visible across Astana.

Back in 2013, Astana was the first to sign up to Beijing’s belt and road programme. China has since then ramped up investment across Kazakhstan and wider Central Asia, targeting small and medium-sized projects as a strategy to expand its influence in the region.

Infrastructure is not the only sign of the growing Chinese presence in Astana. In the city’s shopping malls, Chinese powerhouses draw steady crowds – from drinks chain Mixue to variety chain store Miniso, consumer tech giant Xiaomi and sportswear brand Li-Ning – while Chinese beauty brands such as Shanghai Song have been embraced by local cosmetics stores.

Yichang beer is a bestseller in liquor stores but it is actually brewed in Kazakhstan with rice to mimic the crisp Chinese-style beers. Its producer started exporting the beer to China in 2024, creating a buzz on social media.

On the roads of the capital there are more Chinese EVs, alongside established brands such as Kia and Hyundai from South Korea and Toyota from Japan.

In the first four months of 2026, car dealers in Kazakhstan sold some 2,122 electric and hybrid vehicles, according to official data. Of those, more than 2,000 – or over 97 per cent – came from Chinese carmakers, including BYD, Li Auto, Geely Galaxy, Zeekr and Rox.

A taxi driver in Astana who gave only his first name, Abylai, was driving a BYD and planned to upgrade to the new Han sedan. “It’s a good car for the price,” he said. “Almost all my friends drive Chinese cars such as BYD and Changan.”Kabdygali, the car dealer, said his customers were drawn to the cost-efficiency of Chinese EVs and modern features such as infotainment systems, while concerns about quality had eased over time – mainly due to word of mouth.

Geopolitical ambitions Several major powers – including Japan, South Korea and Turkey – have been vying for more influence in Central Asia in recent years, competing for critical mineral resources, trade routes and infrastructure contracts.

Beijing has opted for a different path as it seeks smaller projects to quickly establish ties and build enduring influence, according to Neafie from Nazarbayev University.

She said China had the capacity and risk tolerance to finance smaller, high-risk projects, which competitors like Japan or South Korea could not easily afford if they failed or underdelivered.

“It’s not just altruism. These things lead to better economic outcomes … [and] have a long-term effect on relationships and public diplomacy,” she said, adding that in the long run these middle-level projects could “make a huge amount of difference”.

Accelerated by the fallout from the war in Ukraine, cooperation between China and Central Asian countries has evolved into an institutionalised partnership, expanding beyond energy to include public health and digital technology.

Zhu Yongbiao, director of the Centre for Afghanistan Studies at Lanzhou University, said that compared to the US approach, China’s investment in the region was more practical and comprehensive.

“Whether it’s cutting-edge tech and flagship products – like electric vehicles, solar power, the digital economy, AI and TikTok – or everyday goods like socks and screws, China has it all,” he said.

“Crucially, it can deliver tailored products and solutions suited to the diverse needs of different Central Asian countries, an advantage the US simply lacks.”Central Asia has shifted from being a security partner to a cornerstone of US regional strategy as Western economies seek to de-risk supply chains from China and Russia, with the Donald Trump administration focusing its attention on Kazakhstan – drawn by its critical mineral reserves.

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio began a five-day trip to India and Uzbekistan on Saturday. In Samarkand, the top US diplomat will lead a delegation of more than 200 business leaders and take part in a series of bilateral engagements with senior officials from all five Central Asian nations – Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Kyrgyzstan.

But intensifying US-China rivalry in the region may not be a bad thing, according to observers.

Zhu said Beijing and Washington actually had opportunities to cooperate in Central Asia on environmental protection, energy market access and regional security surrounding Afghanistan.

And in Kazakhstan the geopolitical pressure is minimal, according to Neafie. She said China and the US were both focused on economic engagement rather than military or security influence, and in a country that is developing fast that economic competition might even be welcomed.