

本月,共和党操盘手在传统的红州中西部州进行焦点小组讨论时,对他们所听到的本党选民的言论感到震惊。
GOP operatives conducting a focus group in a traditionally red Midwestern state this month were taken aback by what they heard from their own party’s voters.
当被问及他们将油价上涨归因于何时,这些选民指向了“腐败的政客”和“亿万富翁”——一位参与讨论的人士表示,这一回应令一些资深策略师感到惊讶,因为他们此前从未见过政府腐败成为如此多共和党选民在国会选举中的首要议题。
Asked what they blamed for rising gas prices, those voters pointed to “corrupt politicians” and “billionaires” — a response that surprised some longtime strategists who’ve never seen government corruption emerge as a top issue for so many Republican voters in congressional races, according to a person involved in the discussions.
这些在可靠红州农业地带的观察只是共和党面临的一个明显模式的一个例子,随着他们在众议院的战场扩展到肯塔基州、威斯康星州和阿肯色州等地。甚至一些共和党议员承认,他们的党需要做得更好,以确保他们回应选民对他们认为的政府体制破裂的愤怒——否则可能彻底失去这些选民。
Those observations in the reliably red farm belt are just one instance of a glaring pattern for Republicans, as their House battlefield expands into places like Kentucky, Wisconsin and Arkansas. Even some GOP lawmakers acknowledge their party needs to do a better job of making sure they’re responding to voters’ anger at what they see as a broken system of government — or risk losing them altogether.
“这些确实是艰难时刻……在他们之间的房贷、电费以及其他一切开支的压力下,他们正艰难度日。这是事实。这比我们通常要处理的那些内部勾当重要得多,”新泽西州共和党众议员杰夫·范德鲁说道,他在国会中塑造了一个特朗普爱好者、民粹派的形象,愿意指出自己党在诸如医疗费用上涨等问题上的失败。
“These are really tough times … Between their mortgage and their electric bill and the cost of everything else, they’re having a hard time making it. That’s real. That’s a lot more important than the other insider crap we deal with,” said GOP Rep. Jeff Van Drew of New Jersey, who’s built a brand in Congress as a Trump-loving populist who’s willing to point out his own party’s failures on issues like rising healthcare costs.
而虽然许多选民将责任归咎于两党的政客,一些共和党人担心他们可能很快会将这种不满发泄到执政者身上。
And while many voters blame politicians on both sides of the aisle, some Republicans fear they could soon take out those frustrations on the ones in charge.
参与德克萨斯州、纽约州到佛罗里达州众议院选举的共和党人士私下向CNN承认,他们对来自工薪阶层选民——尤其是有孩子的家庭——的愤怒感到担忧,因为这些家庭的油价和杂货价格正在飙升。一位参与国会选举的共和党顾问将腐败主题描述为“被低估的事实”在此次中期选举中,称其在民意调查中即使是在传统红州选区也是一个“两到三个议题”。
Republicans involved in House races from Texas to New York to Florida have privately acknowledged to CNN they’re troubled by flashes of anger particularly from working-class voters with kids, whose gas and grocery prices are skyrocketing. One GOP consultant working on congressional races described the theme of corruption as an “underappreciated fact” of this midterm, calling it a “two or three issue” in polling even in reliably red seats this cycle.
人们担心,共和党可能在燃料和杂货价格高企、受影响最严重的地区出现惨败 — — 在那里,他们担心许多蓝领工人感到被总统忽视,而这位总统曾承诺要“清除沼泽”,但如今却计划在其中建造一个耗资数百万美元的舞厅。
There are fears that Republicans could see a washout in parts of the country that are suffering the most from high fuel and grocery prices — where they worry many blue-collar workers are feeling ignored by the president who once pledged to drain the swamp and, instead, has made plans to build a ballroom in it with a price tag in the millions.
共和党普遍对能否守住众议院持悲观态度,尽管他们认为参议院仍有希望,因为民主党很可能需要赢得爱荷华州、阿拉斯加州或俄亥俄州等红州。
Republicans are mostly downbeat about holding onto the House, though they believe the Senate is still in reach, given that Democrats would likely need to win red states like Iowa, Alaska or Ohio.
即便如此,在共和党内部,多名众议院共和党操作人员表示,他们看到一些乐观的微光,因为一些选区的内部民调相比几周前被许多人视为“末日场景”的情况有所改善。几位人士认为,他们看到一些选民正在“回归”的迹象,尤其是在有强势候选人的选区,而数亿美元正被投入这些竞选,可能开始起到作用。
Even so, inside the GOP, multiple House Republican operatives say they are seeing some slight glimmers of optimism as internal polling in some races has improved from what many saw as a doomsday scenario a few weeks ago. Several believe they’re seeing evidence that some voters are coming “home,” especially in races with strong candidates, and that the hundreds of millions of dollars being poured into those contests may be starting to help.

“在一些地区,民调正朝着我们有利的方向转变,”一位参与众议院竞选的共和党操作人员对CNN表示,但因竞争激烈的性质,他拒绝提供具体细节。
“In some places the polls are moving in our direction,” one GOP operative involved in House races told CNN, declining to offer specifics because of the competitive nature of the campaigns.
但众议院的选举格局对该党来说仍然不容乐观,其总统在两年前以双位数优势赢得的州如今民意低迷。顶级共和党超级政治行动委员会目前已叫停对两名现任议员的资助,这是CNN首次报道的正在考虑中的举措,此外,他们还叫停了对若干他们曾试图夺取的席位的资助。
But the House map is still not a rosy picture for the party, whose president is underwater in states he won by double digits two years ago. Top GOP super PACs have cut off funding for two incumbents so far, which CNN first reported was under consideration, as well as several seats they were attempting to flip.
民主党方面,他们仍然对赢得多数席位充满信心,而且不是以微弱优势获胜。他们尤其有信心击败现任共和党众议员:得克萨斯州的莫妮卡·德拉克鲁兹、亚利桑那州的胡安·西斯科马尼、科罗拉多州的加布·埃文斯,以及宾夕法尼亚州的瑞安·麦肯齐和斯科特·佩里。根据多位熟悉内部民调的人士透露,这还不包括已经被共和党团体放弃的两名现任议员。
Top Democrats, for their part, remain confident they will win the majority – and not by a small margin. They feel particularly good about defeating incumbent GOP Reps. Monica De La Cruz of Texas, Juan Ciscomani in Arizona, Gabe Evans in Colorado plus Ryan Mackenzie and Scott Perry in Pennsylvania.
他们也有信心在北卡罗来纳州第11选区的空缺席位上获胜——共和党领导人曾施压现任众议员查克·爱德华兹不寻求连任——以及内布拉斯加州第2选区,共和党也在那里撤回了资源。
That’s on top of the two incumbents already abandoned by GOP groups, according to multiple people familiar with internal polling.
共和党仍在大多数这些选区进行支出,并表示他们自己的内部民调显示出获胜之路,特别是对西斯科马尼和埃文斯,以及可能的德拉克鲁兹。他们还希望在北卡罗来纳州第11选区等席位上出现最后时刻的热情提振——副总统JD·万斯计划在本周早些时候访问该地区。
They’re also confident they’ll win in the open seat in North Carolina’s 11th , where GOP leaders pressured Rep. Chuck Edwards not to seek reelection, and Nebraska’s 2nd, where Republicans also pulled resources. Republicans are still spending in most of these races and say their own internal polling shows a path to victory, particularly for Ciscomani and Evans and possibly De La Cruz.
一位参与众议院竞选的共和党操作人员将这些民主党目标选区描述为“纯粹的摇摆选区”。在共和党党团内部,对现任议员如阿肯色州的弗伦奇·希尔和明尼苏达州的布拉德·芬斯塔德存在一些紧张情绪,尽管他们深处红色选区,但很少有人真的相信他们会失利。他们预计这些选区的竞争将比党内人士所希望的更为激烈和昂贵——但大多数人并不认为会出现最坏的情况。
There’s also hope of last-minute enthusiasm boost in seats like North Carolina’s 11th, where Vice President JD Vance is scheduled to visit early this week. One GOP operative involved in House races described each of those Democratic targets as “pure tossups.”There is some nervousness within the GOP conference about incumbents like Rep. French Hill in Arkansas and Brad Finstad in Minnesota who are in deep red seats, though few actually believe they will flip.
一名共和党策略人士,同样要求匿名,强调他不认为像希尔这样的现任议员有落选风险:“如果弗伦奇·希尔输了,那才是血腥屠杀。我看不到这种情况。”
They anticipate seats like those will be closer, and more expensive, than people in the party want — but most do not expect the worst.
尽管共和党人对民主党一些最雄心勃勃的目标嗤之以鼻,但该党越来越多地投入真金白银,扩大竞选版图。伊利诺伊州州长JB·普利兹克,一名潜在的2028年总统候选人,正在牵头一项2000万美元的计划,进军红州地区,包括试图夺取弗伦奇的席位。在一次采访中,普利兹克说,他试图将共和党资金从更传统的摇摆州选举中转移出去,“支持那些可能是特朗普+10(选区)的候选人,但老实说,我们的候选人正在持平甚至领先。”
One Republican operative, who also spoke on the condition of anonymity, stressed that he does not believe an incumbent like Hill is at risk of losing: “If French Hill’s losing, it’s a f**king bloodbath. I don’t see it.”While Republicans have rolled their eyes at some of Democrats’ most ambitious targets, the party has increasingly put real money behind expanding the map. Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker, a potential 2028 presidential candidate, is leading a $20 million effort to push into red territory, including by trying to flip French’s seat.
特朗普并未排除保住众议院的可能性,他在上周一次电话中对范·德鲁说:“我们仍有机会,”这位议员回忆道。议长迈克·约翰逊表示,当前的环境“感觉像2024年”——当时特朗普获胜,共和党保住了众议院并夺回了参议院。约翰逊还说,他相信民调可能低估了共和党选民的热情。
In an interview, Pritzker said he was trying to divert GOP money from more traditional battleground races and “support candidates where it might be a Trump +10 (district), but honestly, our candidate is running even or even ahead.”Trump hasn’t ruled out keeping the House, telling Van Drew in a phone call last week: “We still have a shot,” the lawmaker recalled. And Speaker Mike Johnson has said that the environment “feels like 2024” - when Trump won and Republicans kept the House and flipped the Senate.

“我身处那些将决定多数党归属的摇摆选区,我跟你说,现在正在发生某些事情,”约翰逊在从缅因州到得克萨斯州的多州紧张竞选行程中说道。“我跟你说,民调没有反映这一点。”并非每位共和党人都持有这种乐观程度。
Johnson also said he believed polling may be underestimating GOP voter enthusiasm. “I am there on the ground in the swing districts that are going to decide the majority, and I am telling you something is happening right now,” Johnson said as part of a frenzied multi-state swing from Maine to Texas. “I’m telling you, the polling is not reflecting this.”
“现在真是糟糕透顶……有多糟糕,我们还不知道,”范·德鲁补充道,不过他预测共和党仍可能避免出现“蓝色浪潮”。
Not every Republican shares that level of optimism.
共和党人士补充说,民主党的品牌在选民中同样不受欢迎,多位现任议员在电视上遭到腐败攻击广告的猛烈抨击。(共和党人尤其针对俄亥俄州众议员马西·卡普特、德克萨斯州众议员文森特·冈萨雷斯和加利福尼亚州众议员亚当·格雷。)全国各地的数十名民主党候选人也发现,这一议题对付共和党同样有效。
“This is a really bad time right now … Just how bad, we don’t know yet,” Van Drew added, though he predicted that Republicans could still avoid a blue wave. GOP operatives add that the Democratic Party’s brand, too, remains unpopular with voters and several of their incumbents have been swamped by corruption attack ads on TV. (Republicans have gone after Reps. Marcy Kaptur of Ohio, Vicente Gonzalez of Texas and Adam Gray of California in particular.) Scores of Democratic candidates across the country have also found the issue effective against Republicans.
初次参选的劳工领袖萨姆·福斯塔格,在蒙大拿州第一选区发起了一场民粹主义的反建制竞选,迫使共和党投入时间和资金来守住这个空缺席位。
Sam Forstag, a first-time candidate and labor leader, has run an insurgent populist campaign in Montana’s 1st district that’s forced Republicans to spend time and money defending the open seat.
“腐败,就像过去几年许多其他事情一样,过去是用委婉的言辞和低声细语来谈论的,而现在已摆在明面上,”福斯塔格对CNN表示。他主张,特朗普两次赢得总统大选,正是靠谈论同一个问题——但随后却未能兑现承诺。
“Corruption, like a lot of other things in last couple years, is something that used to be spoken about in polite terms and hushed terms and now it’s all out in the open,” Forstag told CNN. He argued that Trump won the presidency twice by talking about this same issue – but then failed to deliver.
“特朗普向所有人讲了一个单一的真相。他说系统已经坏了……他说这些话的时候,白宫有一位民主党人告诉我们,经济比我们想象的要好,”福斯塔格说,指的是时任总统乔·拜登。“这两条信息中,有一条比另一条可信得多,不幸的是,结果证明特朗普在撒谎,关于他们将如何解决所有这些问题的承诺都是谎言。”
“Trump told everybody one singular truth. He said the system is broken … While he was saying that, well, we had a Democrat in the White House telling us the economy is better than we think it is,” Forstag said, referring to then-President Joe Biden. “One of those two messages was a lot, had a lot more veracity to it than the other, and unfortunately, it turned out that [Trump] was lying about all the ways they were going to fix these things.”