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共和党人还在乎堕胎问题吗?Do Republicans Still Care About Abortion?

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已不再是议程的首要事项。摄影师:斯特凡尼·雷诺兹/法新社/盖蒂图片社No longer at the top of the agenda. Photographer: Stefani Reynolds/AFP/Getty Images

堕胎议题如今已从共和党的议程中消失。取而代之的是一场针对跨性别群体的运动,重点主要集中在儿童体育领域。从政治角度而言,我能够理解这一转变;但从道德层面来看,我并不认同。

Abortion has fallen off the GOP agenda. In its place is a campaign against transgender issues, largely centered on children’s sports. Politically, I understand it. Ethically, I don’t.

以得克萨斯州为例。民主党参选人詹姆斯·塔拉里科公开支持堕胎权,并主张将罗诉韦德案的裁决以联邦法律的形式重新确立。然而,在共和党候选人肯·帕克斯顿的竞选宣传材料中,以及那些针对塔拉里科、大量投放于得州各家庭的广告里,几乎完全看不到任何有关堕胎的内容。共和党的这些广告几乎全部聚焦于塔拉里科在跨性别议题上的立场,以及“男孩参加女子体育比赛”的问题。

Consider Texas. Democratic Senate candidate James Talarico is unabashedly pro-choice and supports restoring Roe v. Wade, this time as a federal law. But there’s been nary a mention of abortion in Republican Ken Paxton’s campaign flyers nor in the anti-Talarico ads bombarding Texas households. The GOP ads are almost singularly focused on Talarico’s stance on trans issues and “boys playing in girls’ sports.” (Talarico has recently somewhat moderated his stance for “safety” and “fairness.”)

(最近,塔拉里科出于“安全”与“公平”的考虑,略微调整了自己的立场。)在俄亥俄州与爱荷华州那些竞争激烈的选区,共和党人也采取了类似的策略。上个月在达拉斯举行的共和党中期选举大会同样将跨性别议题作为宣传重点,却没有任何一场会议专门讨论堕胎问题;我唯一一次听到有人提及堕胎,是在一位牧师的祈祷词中。

Republicans in close races in Ohio and Iowa are making a similar play. The Republican midterm convention in Dallas last month also featured the new drumbeat on trans issues, while there was not a single session devoted to abortion. The only time I even heard it mentioned was in a pastor’s invocation.

作为一名在20世纪80至90年代成长于共和党阵营的人,如今该党对堕胎议题的缄默令我感到震惊。不过,若结合民意调查结果来看,这种转变其实也在情理之中。大约十年前,我认识的那些常去教堂做礼拜的共和党人大多属于“堕胎议题单一关注型”选民;如今,这类群体的人数正在不断减少。

As someone who grew up in the Republican Party in the 1980s and 1990s, the silence on abortion is deafening. But the switch makes sense if you look at polls. Most churchgoing Republicans I knew a decade or so ago were single-issue voters with respect to abortion. Now they represent a shrinking interest group.

共和党的策略师们坚称,现在是时候转向新议题了。盖洛普调查显示,自2022年最高法院作出推翻罗诉韦德案裁决的“多布斯案”判决以来,自称“支持堕胎权”的美国人比例(53%)已高于“反对堕胎”者(42%)。这或许是因为“多布斯案”判决后,反堕胎团体采取了诸多极端手段:比如得克萨斯州立法允许私刑执法,或是试图限制避孕措施的使用。至于那些仍坚持反对堕胎的选民,他们大多聚集在共和党阵营中(不过也有38%的无党派人士以及15%的民主党人同样认同“反对堕胎”的立场)。

It’s time to move on now, GOP strategists insist. Since the 2022 Dobbs Supreme Court case that overturned Roe v. Wade, more Americans identify as “pro-choice” (53%) than “pro-life” (42%), according to Gallup. This is perhaps because of the extremes unleashed by anti-abortion groups after Dobbs, be it vigilante justice codified in Texas law or efforts to claw back contraception. Of the pro-life voters who remain, they are largely congregated within the Republican Party (although 38% of independents also identify as “pro-life,” as well as 15% of Democrats).

与之形成对比的是,绝大多数(73%)的美国人对跨性别运动员参加与其出生时性别不符的运动队感到不适。根据2025年皮尤研究中心的民意调查,这一情况在性别、种族和年龄方面都存在。甚至大多数民主党人(55%)也对其感到不适。更不用说,甚至大多数LGBTQ选民对此至少持有保留意见。大多数人(66%)支持一项法律,要求跨性别运动员参加与其出生时性别相符的运动队,这一比例在共和党人中升至88%。如今,你几乎再也找不到这种程度的共识了。

By contrast, the vast majority (73%) of Americans are uncomfortable with transgender athletes competing on a sports team that doesn’t match their sex at birth. This holds across gender, ethnicity and age, according to a 2025 Pew Research poll. Even most Democrats (55%) are uncomfortable with it. Heck, even most LGBTQ voters have at least some reservations. Most people (66%) favor a law requiring trans athletes to compete on teams that match their sex at birth, rising to 88% of Republicans. You don’t get that type of agreement on anything anymore.

如果把跨性别运动员作为焦点,共和党人就可以宣称自己在倡导“常识”。也许这甚至可以掩盖关于油价、关税和ICE突袭的噪音。也许它能够触及一种深层的感受——即在疫情期间巩固下来的父母恐惧:学校、医生和治疗师对自己孩子的决定权越来越大,而父母的决定权却在减少。它把看似相对孤立的现象转化为对每个传统家庭及其子女的威胁。

Make trans athletes the focus, and Republicans can claim the mantra of “common sense.”Maybe it can even crowd out the noise about gas prices, tariffs and ICE raids. Maybe it taps into the deeply felt, Covid-cemented parental fears of schools, doctors and therapists having more say over your own children than you do. It turns what seems to be a relatively isolated phenomenon into a threat against every traditional household and its children.

这似乎正是共和党目前所奉行的建议。而且不仅仅是在今年的中期选举期间。共和党已经有一段时间在与反堕胎议题保持距离,并在2024年将堕胎问题从其政策纲领中删除。今年早些时候,特朗普总统甚至曾暗示要废除海德修正案——这是一条已有50年历史的规定,禁止联邦资金用于堕胎。

This is the advice the GOP seemingly is running on. And not just during these midterms. The Republican Party has been distancing itself from pro-life causes for some time now, taking abortion out of its policy platform in 2024. Earlier this year, President Donald Trump even flirted with getting rid of the Hyde Amendment, a 50-year-old rule barring federal funds from being used for abortion.

但尽管该党已经转向其他议题,美国的堕胎形势却变得更糟而非更好。在多布斯裁决之后,堕胎率在经历了数十年的下降后又开始上升。在自由州,堕胎仍然可以无孕周限制地进行,这远超公众对什么是可以接受的看法。孕产妇死亡率仍然偏高,而根据约翰霍普金斯大学布隆伯格公共卫生学院最近的研究,在实施堕胎禁令的州,婴儿死亡率反而上升了。

But while the party has moved on, the abortion landscape in America has gotten worse, not better. Following the Dobbs decision, the abortion rate has risen after decades of previous decline. In liberal states, abortion remains available without gestational limits, far outside public opinion for what’s acceptable. Maternal mortality rates are still too high, and in states with abortion bans, infant mortality rates have risen, according to recent research from the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health.

在共和党领导的、实施堕胎限制的州,其实可以做更多来支持健康的母亲和婴儿。虽然一些保守州在堕胎获取权被削弱后提高了对新妈妈的医疗补助覆盖,但这些州最有可能缺乏带薪育儿假、完善的托儿支持或针对家庭的额外税收抵免。这里存在一种令人不安的讽刺。如果保护子宫内的生命很重要,那么子宫外的条件也同样重要,尤其是对脆弱的母亲和儿童而言。否则,堕胎限制就会显得更像是关于控制而非支持。

In Republican-led states with abortion restrictions, much more could be done to support healthy moms and babies. While some conservative states increased their Medicaid coverage for new mothers following the rollback of abortion access, these states are the most likely to lack paid parental leave or robust child-care support or additional tax credits for families. There’s an uncomfortable irony here. If preserving life in the womb matters, so too do the conditions on the outside of the womb, especially for vulnerable mothers and children. Otherwise, it feels like abortion restrictions are more about control than support.

在全国层面,共和党可以主张实行孕早期限制(这一点有相当大的公众共识),重新设计儿童税收抵免以在生命早期前置支持,并使美国的分娩对母亲和儿童更安全。共和党还可以主张联邦层面的带薪育儿假计划,这将带来诸多好处,其中之一就是降低新生儿死亡率。

At the national level, the GOP could advocate for a first trimester limit (where there is significant public agreement), reworking the child tax credit to frontload support early in life, and making birth in America safer for mothers and children. Republicans could also argue for a federal paid parental leave program, which would have many benefits, among them fewer neonatal fatalities.

共和党正在利用跨性别议题来塑造自己为儿童保护者的形象。但这需要超越谁在足球队踢球的讨论。这需要一套更深入、更全面的政策来促进家庭繁荣——一项投资于母亲福祉、婴儿存活和经济机会的政策。

Republicans are using trans issues to portray themselves as protectors of children. But that requires a focus beyond who plays on the soccer team. It requires a deeper and more holistic set of policies to improve family flourishing — one that invests in maternal well-being, infant survival and economic opportunity.

令人遗憾的是,共和党曾经认识到(其中一些)这一点。如今他们已经转向其他方向。

The sad thing is that Republicans used to recognize (some of) this. Now they’ve moved on.

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