三项全国民调显示，随着选举临近，特朗普总统的批准率创下新低，民主党在中期选举中领先共和党8至10个百分点。
Three national polls show President Trump's approval rating hitting new lows as Democrats lead Republicans by 8 to 10 points ahead of the midterms."
为何重要：共和党需要特朗普的拥护者投票，但接受一位不受欢迎的总统风险会疏远他们需要赢得竞争性选举的独立选民。
Why it matters: Republicans need Trump's loyalists to turn out, but embracing an unpopular president risks alienating independents they need to win competitive races
推动新闻：《华盛顿邮报》-《ABC新闻》-Ipsos、《NBC新闻》和《福克斯新闻》最新民调显示，特朗普的批准率分别为33%、34%和36%，在每项调查中均为历史低点或第二任期低点。
Driving the news: New polls from the Washington Post-ABC News-Ipsos NBC News Fox News put Trump's approval at 33%, 34% and 36%, respectively — record or second-term lows in each survey.
《华盛顿邮报》民调显示，民主党在登记选民中领先共和党8个百分点；而《福克斯新闻》和《NBC新闻》分别领先9个和10个百分点。
• Democrats lead Republicans by eight points in the Post poll, nine points in Fox's and 10 points in NBC's among registered voters.
过去曾是优势的经济已成为特朗普的主要弱项。仅21%的人在《华盛顿邮报》民调中批准他处理生活成本，27%在《NBC新闻》民调中，22%在《福克斯新闻》民调中批准他处理通胀问题。
• Once a strength, the economy is now Trump's main vulnerability. Just 21% approve of his handling of the cost of living in the Post poll, 27% in NBC's and 22% approve of his handling of inflation in Fox's.
即便是共和党人也在转变：据《福克斯新闻》和《NBC新闻》民调，特朗普在共和党人中的批准率分别为76%和76%，而《华盛顿邮报》民调则显示为79%。
• Even Republicans are souring: Fox and NBC both find Trump's approval among Republicans at 76%, while the Post puts it at 79%. Zoom in:
深入观察：共和党内部出现日益明显的分歧。
Republicans face a growing divide within their party.
《福克斯新闻》报告称，在自称“MAGA”共和党人中，特朗普的批准率高达95%，而在非MAGA共和党人中则为47%。
• Fox reports 95% approval of Trump among self-described MAGA Republicans, versus 47% among non-MAGA Republicans.
《华盛顿邮报》民调显示，75%的MAGA共和党人表示他们有把握会投票或已经投票，而非MAGA共和党人则为57%。
• The Post finds 75% of MAGA Republicans say they're certain to vote or have already voted, compared with 57% of non-MAGA Republicans.
《华盛顿邮报》民调还指出，37%的共和党人和倾向共和党的独立人士希望党领导人将党向与特朗普不同的方向发展，这是有史以来的最高水平。
• The Post poll also says 37% of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents want GOP leaders to take the party in a different direction from Trump, an all-time high.
大局观：此前本月发表的评论发现，在62个具有竞争性的众议院选区中，有41个的共和党候选人要么在政策上与特朗普划清界限，要么淡化与他的关系。
The big picture: review published earlier this month found that Republican candidates in 41 of 62 competitive congressional races either broke with Trump on policy or downplayed their ties to him.
至少有十几名候选人已从竞选网站上移除特朗普的姓名、形象或支持声明，据路透社报道。
• At least a dozen of those candidates removed Trump's name, image or endorsement from their campaign websites, according to Reuters.
即便是部分特朗普选民也看到了问题：据《政治新闻》民调，2024年投票给特朗普的人中，有26%认为共和党候选人将更好地摆脱他。
• Even some Trump voters see the problem: A Politico poll found 26% of people who voted for Trump in 2024 believe Republican candidates would be better off breaking with him. What they're saying: "
他们说：“总体上保持距离，这并不是什么新鲜事，Principles First 执行董事兼共和党政治策划人布里塔尼·马丁内斯对Axios说。
Distancing yourself in general, that isn't anything new," Principles First executive director and Republican political strategist Brittany Martinez told Axios.
“但共和党人，许多共和党人，遍布全国……有意、有策划地”远离他“说明了一切。”
- 她指出，一些共和党人批评他的政策，却没有直接指责他，她引用了众议员玛丽亚·萨拉扎尔（R-佛州）的一则广告，该广告警告特朗普要小心他的顾问们告诉他的移民政策。
"But Republicans, many Republicans, all over the country … intentionally, strategically" moving away from him "speaks volumes." • She noted some Republicans have criticized his policies without directly blaming him, pointing to an ad from Rep. Maria Salazar (R-Fla.) that warned Trump he should be careful about what his advisers were telling him about immigration policy.
- 肯塔基州参议员候选人安迪·巴尔、佛罗里达州州长候选人拜伦·唐纳兹和佐治亚州州长候选人里克·杰克逊是那些从其网站上删除特朗普提及的候选人之一。
• Kentucky Senate nominee Andy Barr, Florida gubernatorial nominee Byron Donalds and Georgia gubernatorial nominee Rick Jackson are are among the candidates who removed references to Trump from their websites.
白宫发言人戴维斯·英格尔在一份声明中表示：“特朗普总统是共和党无可置疑的领袖、最佳信使和无与伦比的激励者，他致力于维持共和党在国会中的多数。”
White House spokesperson Davis Ingle said in a statement that "President Trump is the unequivocal leader, best messenger, and unmatched motivator for the Republican Party, and he is committed to maintaining Republican majorities in Congress."
- 唐纳兹的竞选传播主管盖茨·麦加维克表示，该众议员“很荣幸能获得特朗普总统的背书。”
• Donalds' campaign comms director Gates McGavick said the congressman is "proud to have President Trump's endorsement."
- 一位白宫官员告诉Axios，特朗普与候选人之间没有距离。几位候选人仍然将他们与特朗普的关系置于显著位置。
• A White House official told Axios there's no distance between Trump and candidates. Several candidates still sport their Trump ties front and center.
言之间：共和党人仍然与他同台亮相，即使他们并不总是认同他的政策。
Between the lines: Republicans still appear with him, even if they don't always agree with his policies.
- 德克萨斯州参议员候选人肯·帕克斯顿私下抱怨伊朗战争和油价对其竞选的影响。但他也曾在特朗普的竞选集会上与其同台亮相。
• Texas Senate candidate Ken Paxton has privately lamented the impact of the Iran war and gas prices on his campaign. But he also appeared onstage with Trump at a campaign rally.
- 众议员阿什利·希森（R-爱荷华州），她同样陷入激烈的参议院竞争，呼吁结束伊朗战争，理由是油价高企对爱荷华州居民造成负担。几天之后，她在椭圆办公室与特朗普及其他议员同台亮相。
• Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-Iowa), who is also locked in a tight Senate race, called for an end to the war in Iran, citing high fuel prices for Iowans. Days later, she appeared in the Oval Office alongside Trump and fellow lawmakers.
底线：共和党候选人试图在不让特朗普日益增长的不受欢迎程度定义其竞选的前提下，抓住特朗普忠诚的基本盘。
The bottom line: Republican candidates are trying to hold onto Trump's devoted base without letting his growing unpopularity define their campaigns.