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中国投资者蜂拥买入分红股,回报率达国债两倍China’s investors flock to dividend stocks as returns double those of state bonds

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中国投资者正蜂拥而至的分红股票,以躲避因科技公司抛售和亚洲国家K形经济增长引发的市场动荡。

Chinese investors have been flocking to dividend stocks, taking shelter from market turmoil spurred by sell-offs in technology companies and K-shaped economic growth in the Asian nation.

进入10月时,在美联储可能收紧金融政策以及中国国内需求疲软令投资者风险胃口受挫的背景下,两项衡量中国内地上市公司股息收益率最高的指标跑赢了基准指数。

Two key gauges of the mainland-listed companies with the highest dividend yield ratios outpaced the benchmark heading into October, when fears of financial tightening in the US and China’s flagging domestic demand weighed on investors’ risk appetite.

上证50只精选股息股指数本月上涨2%,而沪深300指数下跌4.3%,以芯片为核心的科创板50指数则暴跌11%。与此同时,覆盖上海和深圳两地交易所100只此类股票的中证股息指数上涨1.6%。

The Shanghai Stock Exchange Dividend Index of the 50 selected stocks has risen 2 per cent this month, while the CSI Dividend Index, which tracks a broader pool of 100 such stocks on the Shanghai and Shenzhen bourses, has gained 1.6 per cent. In comparison, the CSI 300 Index has fallen 4.3 per cent and the chip-centric Star Market 50 gauge has tumbled 11 per cent.

这两只股息指数的股息收益率至少达到4%,远高于中国10年期国债1.65%的收益率。

The two dividend indexes offer at least a 4 per cent dividend yield, trouncing the 1.65 per cent yield on China’s 10-year government bond.

这种格局凸显了投资者情绪的重大转变——在人工智能交易狂热主导市场大半年之后,情况最近发生了变化。美国通胀数据高于预期,引发了人们对本月或12月加息的猜测;而中国最新的经济数据则强化了这样一种评估:不均衡的增长可能会持续。

The set-up has highlighted a major shift in investor sentiment, with the frantic artificial intelligence trade dominating the market for most of the year until recently. A hotter-than-estimated US inflation print has fanned speculation about interest rate increases either this month or in December, while the latest readings on China’s economic data reinforced the assessment that uneven growth may persist.

“在未来一两年,价值可能会超越增长,”东吴证券分析师陈刚表示。“流动性和行业趋势可能都已到达转折点。全球央行的宽松周期基本结束,AI硬件的韧性可能正在减弱。虽然我们认为AI革命尚未结束,但接下来的投资阶段将更加艰难。”在股息股票范围内,陈刚表示,他更倾向于资源类公司——这些公司受益于能源和大宗商品价格上涨——而非那些正面临劳动力市场疲软的消费类公司。

“Value may outrun growth in the following one or two years,” said Chen Gang, an analyst at Soochow Securities. “Liquidity and the industry trend may have both reached the turning points. Global central banks’ easing cycles are basically over and the resilience of AI hardware is probably waning. While we reckon that the AI revolution isn’t over yet, the next leg of investments will be more difficult.”Within the universe of dividend stocks, Chen said that he preferred resource companies, which have benefited from rising energy and commodity prices, to consumer names that were grappling with a weakened labour market.

人们走过上海金融区的一座桥。图片:法新社People walk across a bridge in the financial district of Shanghai. Photo: AFP

根据一份事实表,截至9月底,上海证券交易所红利指数的成分股以能源和金融行业为主,分别占比34%和31%。权重最大的成分股是中远海运控股,占比5.3%,其次是广汇能源,占比3.9%,以及上海中谷物流,占比3.6%。

Shanghai’s SSE Dividend Index was dominated by the energy and financial industries, which had a 34 per cent and 31 per cent weighting, respectively, at the end of September, according to a fact sheet. The most heavily weighted constituent was Cosco Shipping Holdings with a 5.3 per cent representation, followed by Guanghui Energy with 3.9 per cent and Shanghai Zhonggu Logistics with 3.6 per cent.

中证红利指数的最大行业成分是金融股,占比26%,能源和工业公司位列第二和第三。其前三大成分股与上证红利指数相同。

The CSI dividend gauge had financial stocks as its biggest industry component, carrying a 26 per cent weighting, while energy and industrial companies ranked second and third. Its top three constituents were the same as the SSE Dividend Index.

事实表显示,上海证券交易所的50只红利股平均股息收益率为4%,而中证红利指数成分股的平均股息收益率为4.2%。

The 50 dividend stocks on the Shanghai bourse had an average dividend yield of 4 per cent, and those on the CSI gauge returned an average yield of 4.2 per cent, the fact sheets showed.

中国国债收益率的近期下降也使红利股更具吸引力,投资者在预期经济增长疲软的情况下,正在追逐固定收益产品。10年期国债收益率正在逼近其历史低点1.6%。

The recent decline in Chinese government bond yields has also made dividend stocks more appealing, with investors chasing fixed-income products in anticipation of weak economic growth. The yield on the 10-year bond is approaching its record low of 1.6 per cent.

由于中国经济增长不均衡,投资者在股市中的广泛机会减少,红利股可能继续脱颖而出。

Dividend stocks may continue to stand out, as China’s patchy economic growth leaves investors with fewer broad opportunities in the stock market.

“我们对中国股票保持更为谨慎的立场,”摩根士丹利在上周的一份报告中表示。“出口增长加强和有针对性的政策微调应有助于守住增长底线,但国内需求疲弱和家庭杠杆持续去杠杆化仍是全面盈利复苏的制约因素。”

“We maintain our more cautious stance on China equities,” Morgan Stanley said in a report last week. “Stronger exports and targeted policy fine-tuning should help defend the growth floor, but subdued domestic demand and ongoing household deleveraging remain constraints on a broader earnings recovery.”