中国煤炭产量上月下降，随着冬季供暖季临近，对供应的担忧日益加剧。冬季供暖季通常是需求高峰期。
Chinese coal production fell last month, as concerns build over supply ahead of the winter heating season when demand typically peaks.
据国家统计局周一公布的数据，矿工们在9月份开采了3.85亿吨煤炭，较上月有所改善，但同比仍下降6.8%。火电输出成为供需平衡的亮点，当月下降1.4%，表明公用事业部门发电所需的煤炭减少。
Miners dug up 385 million tons in September, an improvement on the previous month but still a drop of 6.8% year-on-year, according to the statistics bureau on Monday. Thermal power output was a bright spot for the supply-demand balance, falling 1.4% over the month and indicating that utilities needed less coal for electricity generation.
自4月起，煤炭产量年化基础上持续下降，这一趋势在5月发生一起致命矿难后加速，引发了广泛的安全检查。行业复苏缓慢，特别是在事故发生地山西——这一顶级产煤中心——复苏尤为迟缓，导致动力煤价格升至三年高位，这一水平可能令人不适，当局已敦促山西省的矿工提高供应。
Coal output has been falling on an annualized basis since April, a trend that accelerated after a deadly mine blast in May provoked widespread safety checks. The industry’s slow recovery, particularly in the top producing hub of Shanxi where the accident occurred, has lifted thermal coal prices to three-year highs, a potentially uncomfortable level, and the authorities have urged miners in the province to ramp up supply.
中国煤炭运销协会表示，季节性备煤可能继续推动价格在11月之前上涨，尽管目前看来全国性短缺的风险甚微。不过，价格上涨可能导致全国一些煤炭储备不足地区的供应趋紧。
Seasonal stockpiling may continue to push prices up through November, according to the China Coal Transportation and Distribution Association, although it sees little risk so far of a nationwide shortage. Still, higher prices could tighten supply in some of parts of the country that don’t have abundant reserves.
近年来，中国为避免十年初曾出现的因停电而受创的经济局面，付出了巨大努力，以确保开采足够的主力燃料。经济放缓和相对强劲的进口也在一定程度上缓解了压力，此外，即将到来的冬季气温预计将比往常更为温和。
China has made enormous efforts in recent years to mine enough of its mainstay fuel to guard against the blackouts that blighted the economy at the beginning of the decade. A slowing economy and relatively strong imports have also taken some of the pressure off, as have forecasts of milder-than-usual temperatures over the coming winter.
煤炭运销协会表示，如果价格进一步大幅上涨，可能促使政府采取更有力的干预措施以提升产出。相反，如果月产量反弹至4.2亿吨——这一水平 zuletzt出现在3月——可能会触发价格下跌，协会补充道。
Further sharp increases in price could prompt the government to make more forceful interventions to boost output, the coal association said. Conversely, a rebound in monthly output to 420 million tons — a level last hit in March — may trigger a decline in prices, it added.
其他观察人士则更为担忧。油化分析师尼科尔·李表示，该国今年可能出现7100万吨的缺口，如果中东战争持续导致更多煤炭被用于化工制造以替代石油，这一缺口可能在2027年扩大至1亿吨。
Other observers are more concerned. OilChem analyst Nicole Li said the country could end up with a shortfall of 71 million tons this year, widening to 100 million tons in 2027 if the war in the Middle East continues to divert more coal to chemicals manufacturing as a substitute for oil.
摩根士丹利分析师在最近一次访问山西后表示，即使矿山恢复生产，由于生产商因政府安全规定而变得更加谨慎，山西省今年的煤炭产量仍可能下降10%。
After a recent trip to Shanxi, Morgan Stanley analysts said coal output in the province could still drop 10% this year, even after mine resumptions, as producers grow more cautious because of the government’s safety rules.