兵变在俄罗斯飞地加里宁格勒爆发，令克里姆林宫陷入尴尬的考验。
Mutiny erupts in the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad in an uncomfortable test for the Kremlin.
一群叛军劫持了该地区的州长，并策划派遣坦克和部队越过边境进入邻国立陶宛——该国是北约联盟的一部分。
A group of rebels takes the territory's governor hostage and plots to send tanks and troops over its border into neighbouring Lithuania, which is part of the NATO alliance.
叛军的目标——他们希望莫斯科对盟友采取比目前更为强硬的立场——似乎是挑起与北约的冲突，从而迫使俄罗斯其他地区跟随他们行动，进而引发莫斯科与西方之间的更广泛战争。
The goal of the mutineers - who want Moscow to take an even harder line with the allies than it already does - appears to be to start a fight with NATO that then forces the rest of Russia to roll in behind them and triggers a wider war between Moscow and the West.
这是上周在立陶宛一所大学举行的三场“危机模拟”之一，来自英国和欧洲各地的学者、前外交官及其他专家扮演了俄罗斯一方、叛军以及各北约成员国的角色。
It is one of three "crisis simulations" that took place at a university in Lithuania last week, with academics, former diplomats and other experts from the UK and across Europe playing the part of the Russian side, the mutineers and various NATO member states.
天空新闻的《防务内幕》获得了独家访问权，得以观察此次演练兵变的全过程。您可以通过访问该应用观看发生的一切。
Sky News' Defence Insider was given exclusive access to watch what unfolded during the staged mutiny. You can watch what happened by visiting the app.
此次演习由一个名为“波罗的海国际安全中心”的新智库以及立陶宛ISM管理与经济大学共同策划。
The exercise was created by a new think tank, called the Baltic International Security Centre, and Lithuania's ISM University of Management and Economics.
英国记者、俄罗斯问题专家爱德华·卢卡斯创立了该智库，并协助组织了这些模拟演练。
Edward Lucas, a British journalist and Russia expert, founded the think tank and helped to organise the simulations.
他说，这些演练是有意与其他设想俄罗斯军队通过针对北约东翼制造困境的情景形成对比。这一次，承受最大压力的是莫斯科。
He said they were a deliberate contrast to other scenarios that imagine Russian forces creating the dilemma for NATO by targeting the alliance's eastern flank. This time around, it is Moscow that is under the most pressure.
卢卡斯先生表示：“那些设想北约什么都不做、袖手旁观，[而俄罗斯部队] 就此卷入波罗的海诸国的战争游戏，纯属胡说。”
Wargames "that involve scenarios where NATO does nothing, stands by, [as Russian forces] go rolling into the Baltic states, it's all nonsense", Mr Lucas said.
“实际上，这些国家[立陶宛、拉脱维亚和爱沙尼亚]看到的是我们看不到的东西。“他们听到的是我们听不到的声音。“他们理解的是我们无法理解的事情。“他们做的是我们不做的事情。
"Actually, these countries [Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia] see things we don't see. "They hear things that we don't hear. They understand things we do not understand.
“而且他们高度警惕、随时待命，并且会拼死奋战。他们在这里有盟友，随时准备从第一分钟就开战，[弗拉基米尔] 普京实际上也知道这一点。”
They do things that we don't do. "And they are super vigilant and super ready, and they would fight like crazy. They've got allies here who are ready to fight from the first minute and [Vladimir] Putin actually knows that.
“因此我认为从另一个角度来看待它很重要，我们应该谈论的不是俄罗斯的军事威胁有多大，而是真正的关键点，即加里宁格勒的脆弱性。”更多来自天空新闻：该地区居住着近一百万俄罗斯人，与俄罗斯本土分离，并与北约成员国立陶宛和波兰接壤。
"So I think it was important to look at it the other way round and talk not about so much the military threat from Russia, but the real point, which is Kaliningrad's vulnerability." The territory, home to almost one million Russians, is separate from the Russian mainland and shares borders with the NATO states of Lithuania and Poland.
卢卡斯先生表示，该地区曾经高度军事化，但许多武器和部队已被调往乌克兰参与俄乌战争，导致该地区防御力大幅削弱。
Mr Lucas said it was once highly militarised but many of the weapons and troops have been diverted to fight Russia's war in Ukraine, leaving the land much less well defended.
克里姆林宫在最近几周警告称，若北约部队对该地区构成任何挑战，它愿意发动核打击作为回应，这也反映出现实世界中人们对加里宁格勒的潜在担忧。
In a sign of potential nervousness in the real world about Kaliningrad, the Kremlin in recent weeks has warned that it would be willing to launch a nuclear attack in response to any challenge to the territory by NATO forces.
立陶宛和波兰正密切关注该地区的动态，担心居住在那里的俄罗斯人可能试图越境进入这两个北约国家，以躲避克里姆林宫可能动员更多平民参与乌克兰战争的任何尝试。
Lithuania and Poland are watching what happens on the territory closely amid concerns that Russians living there could seek to cross into the two NATO countries to avoid any attempt by the Kremlin to round up more civilians to fight in Ukraine.
立陶宛政府甚至正在向其与加里宁格勒的边境增派部队，以防这种情况发生。
The Lithuanian government is even sending additional troops to defend its border with Kaliningrad in case that happens.
前北约首席发言人奥阿娜·伦格斯库协助裁决了加里宁格勒战争游戏。她还在演练过程中扮演了多种角色，包括北约最高军事指挥官。
Oana Lungescu, a former chief NATO spokesperson, helped to adjudicate the Kaliningrad wargames. She also played various roles as the scenarios unfolded, including the alliance's top military commander.
“我得到的最大启示是时间的重要性，以及快速且协调一致地行动的重要性，”她在接受采访时表示。
"My biggest takeaway is the importance of time, the importance of doing things very fast and in a coordinated fashion," she said in an interview. "Things will come at you in the blink of an eye.
“事情可能在眨眼间就到来。它们可能来自不同方向。信息不足，且需要做出复杂决策，这就是为什么通过北约，所有盟友能够达成结论……然后迅速行动、快速就位、提升部队准备状态，以预防、威慑任何侵略行为，并防止任何危机恶化。”
They come from different directions. There's insufficient information, and there's complex decisions to be made, which is why it's important that, through NATO, all allies can reach a conclusion… and then act quickly and move fast into position and raise the readiness of their forces to pre-empt, to deter any aggression and to prevent any crisis from becoming worse."