
德意志银行押注尼日利亚奈拉将对美元走强,因而将西非国家纳入其前沿外汇监控工具,该工具用于监测规模较小、流动性较低市场的货币。
Bank AG is betting the Nigerian naira will strengthen against the US dollar as it adds the West African nation to its frontier foreign exchange monitor, a tool it uses to watch currencies in smaller, less liquid markets.
该银行总部位于法兰克福的策略师和经济学家认为奈拉“被低估”,并提供有吸引力的搬迁收益,同时伴随有利的实际利率,他们在周一的客户报告中如此表示。“展望的主要风险来自财政方面,”报告指出,指向债务管理办公室本季度的债券发行日历,显示“发行水平升高”。奈拉是今年全球表现最佳的货币之一,其对美元近8%的升值使其在彭博追踪的144种货币中排名前10。该货币的涨幅也提升了尼日利亚资产的投资者回报,从股票到当地货币债券,这些回报在全球范围内名列前茅。
Strategists and economists at the Frankfurt-based lender see the naira “undervalued” and offering attractive carry alongside favorable real rates, it said in a client note on Monday. “The principal risk to the outlook is from the fiscal side,” it said, pointing to the debt management office’s bond issuance calendar for this quarter which signals “elevated issuance levels.”The naira is among the world’s best-performing currencies this year, with its nearly 8% appreciation against the dollar ranking it in the top 10 of 144 currencies tracked by Bloomberg. The currency’s gains also anchor investor returns across Nigerian assets, from stocks to local-currency bonds, which rank among the highest in the world.
尽管德意志银行预计财政支出将在尼日利亚1月份的选举前上升,但它认为“选举本身的风险较小。”德意志银行外汇监控还跟踪其他非洲货币,包括安哥拉的宽扎和加纳的塞迪。根据该银行的说法,尽管中东冲突的余波仍在,这些国家的经济全年表现均十分稳健。尼日利亚和安哥拉的原油价格上涨以及加纳的黄金价格坚挺,有助于改善它们的经常账户状况。
While the German lender expects fiscal spending to rise ahead of Nigeria’s January polls, it expects “less risk from the elections themselves.”The Deutsche Bank FX monitor also track other African currencies including Angola’s kwanza and Ghana’s cedi. The nations’ economies have all had a solid year despite the fallout from the conflict in the Middle East, according to the lender. Elevated crude prices for Nigeria and Angola and firmer gold prices for Ghana helped strengthen their current-account positions, it said.

这些国家也受益于强劲的经济状况——具体来说是高实际利率和充足的外汇储备——这支持了高水平的“投资者流入”,该银行的策略师和经济学家在客户报告中如此写道。周一,奈拉对美元的汇率为1,332。
The countries are also benefiting from strong economic conditions — specifically high real interest rates and ample foreign exchange reserves — which have supported high “investor inflows,” the strategists and economists at the lender wrote in the client note. The naira was trading at 1,332 per dollar on Monday.