
在过去十年左右的时间里,关注商业新闻的一大乐趣,但也同样是痛苦,在于乘坐埃隆·马斯克经历的这趟充满陷阱的过山车。他从被人们视为现实生活中的托尼·斯塔克,变成了某种更像现代亨利·福特的东西——而且是以最糟糕的方式,期间经历了无数令人心碎的转折。
One of the great joys, but also miseries, of following business news over the past decade or so has been riding the dodgy roller coaster of the Elon Musk experience. He has gone from a guy people considered a real-life Tony Stark to something more like a modern-day Henry Ford, in the worst possible way, with countless gut-wrenching twists in between.
然而,直到今天,似乎从未有人想过:“嘿,你知道谁错过了这个吗?孩子们。”
At no point, however, did anybody think: “Hey, you know who’s missing out on this? Children.”Until today.
周一,SpaceX 首席执行官埃隆·马斯克承诺,将向美国的每一名儿童捐赠他公司的一股股份,即共计 7200 万股,并表示这将是“许多此类礼物中的第一个”。如果你刚从另一颗星球来到这里,那么你可能会认为这是一位接近万亿富翁的相当慷慨的举动。诚然,该股票自今年6月首次公开募股以来一直有些停滞不前,但该公司拥有数十亿美元的美国政府合同,而马斯克曾承诺,其收入将从去年的不足190亿美元飙升至2030年的1万亿美元。
SpaceX Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk pledged on Monday to donate one share of his company to each of America’s 72 million children, vowing it would be the first such gift “of many.”If you had just this morning traveled here from another planet, then you might consider this a reasonably generous gesture from a near-trillionaire. The stock has been a bit stagnant since its June IPO, sure, but the company has billions of dollars in US government contracts, and Musk has promised its revenue will soar from less than $19 billion last year to $1 trillion by 2030.
如此规模的礼物对马斯克庞大的财富和权力而言几乎不值一提。它将花费约105亿美元,使马斯克的净资产从8995亿美元降至8895亿美元。此外,正如我的彭博社观点同事利亚姆·丹宁所指出的,这将使他在SpaceX的投票权从目前的82%(因股票采用双重类别结构)降低仅0.1个百分点。
Such a gift would barely trouble Musk’s vast wealth and power. It would cost about $10.5 billion, shaving Musk’s net worth to $889.5 billion. And as my Bloomberg Opinion colleague Liam Denning points out, it would cut his SpaceX voting power, currently at 82% because of the stock’s dual-class nature, by just 0.1 percentage points.
但即便只是对马斯克整体风格略有了解,也应立即引发对这个“承诺”的诸多担忧。首先,他是在自己的社交媒体应用X(前身为Twitter)上作出这一承诺的,而在该平台上,马斯克曾许下许多诺言,其中大比例从未兑现。最著名的是他在2018年宣称自己已“筹集到资金”,以每股420美元的价格将特斯拉公司私有化。结果证明这并不真实,因而他陷入了严重的法律麻烦。
But even a passing familiarity with Musk’s whole vibe should raise many immediate concerns about this “promise.”For one thing, it was made on his social media app, X, formerly known as Twitter, on which Musk has promised many things, a large percentage of which have never happened. Most famous was his 2018 declaration that he had “funding secured” to take Tesla Inc. private at $420 a share. It got him in serious legal trouble when it turned out not to be true.
如果你有几个小时可以打发,你可以浏览这个网站,查看一长串其他未兑现的马斯克承诺,包括一项“全国召唤”功能,该功能可以让你的特斯拉自行穿越大陆,带着风格来找你;从纽约到伦敦的半小时火箭旅行;100万辆机器人出租车;还有能够航行的特斯拉,仅举几例。购买马斯克的股票更像是订阅一部日益荒诞的科幻流媒体服务,而不是一项投资。
If you have several hours to kill, you can peruse this website for a long list of other unfulfilled Musk promises, including a “cross country summon” feature that would let your Tesla travel the continent by itself, style, to find you; half-hour rocket trips from New York to London; 1 million robotaxis; and seafaring Teslas, to name a few. Buying stock in Musk is less an investment than it is subscribing to a streaming service for increasingly ridiculous science fiction.
此外,看来马斯克并没有花很长时间与律师和会计师商议这次礼物的安排。相反,时间点和马斯克的过往记录表明,他看到SpaceX的AI竞争对手Anthropic PBC在周日做出了自己的慈善承诺,并产生了要超越它的冲动。克劳德的制造商承诺捐赠其5%的股份,潜在价值可能达到750亿美元(如果公司估值达到1.5万亿美元),用于一个将惠及“公共善”的基金,其中包括AI导致孩子们想要的工作岗位被取代。
Also, it doesn’t seem as if Musk spent long hours conferring with lawyers and accountants planning for this gift. Rather, the timing and Musk’s track record suggest he saw SpaceX’s AI rival, Anthropic PBC, making its own charitable pledge on Sunday and felt the urge to one-up it. The maker of Claude vowed to donate 5% of its shares, potentially worth $75 billion (if the company is worth $1.5 trillion), to a fund that will benefit the “public good,” including AI’s destruction of jobs that kids want.
马斯克在Anthropic的X帖子下回复了这一宣布,简短地写道:“我建议直接将股份捐给公众,”暗示他只是在做慈善方面更胜一筹。他后来几小时后做出了没细节的承诺:每个孩子一股股份。孩子们将如何收到这些股份?没人知道,而且很大可能永远也不会有人需要去弄清楚。
Musk replied to Anthropic’s X post making this announcement with a curt “I recommend giving the shares directly to the public,” suggesting he’s just better at doing charity. His detail-free promise of one share per child followed hours later. How will children receive these shares? Nobody knows, and the odds are very good that nobody will ever have to find out.
Anthropic的这一举动看来是向AI领域中日益壮大的反对者和怀疑者群体伸出的橄榄枝,其中包括大多数美国公众,此举发生在其IPO之前。也许这也能减轻一些施加实际政府对该技术监管的压力。
Anthropic’s offer seems to be an olive branch to AI’s large and growing contingent of haters and skeptics, including most of the American public, ahead of its IPO. Maybe it will also deflect some of the pressure to impose actual government regulation of the technology.
马斯克也需要一些好的宣传,而不仅仅是因为SpaceX正在成为一家不断壮大的人工智能巨头。他拥抱了白人民族主义,并让SpaceX的星链服务破坏乌克兰抵御俄罗斯入侵的努力。他主持了政府效率部,该部门在不顾后果的情况下削减了政府职位和办公室,其中包括已经有70万人因DOGE对美国国际开发署的攻击而死亡的人。
Musk could use some good publicity, too, and not just because SpaceX is a growing AI giant. He has embraced White nationalism and let SpaceX’s Starlink service undermine Ukraine’s effort to defend itself from Russia’s invasion. He manned the Department of Government Efficiency that slashed government jobs and offices without care for the repercussions, including the 700,000 people who have already died because of DOGE’s assault on USAID.
他的行为无论好坏都影响着所有投资于他公司的人,包括那些理论上的7200万儿童。长期以来,“更糟”一直未曾出现;他的粉丝们多年来帮助特斯拉的股价违背传统市场逻辑。这种魔法还能持续多久?如今孩子们的处境已经很艰难,气候混乱,欧洲和中东战争不断,人工智能威胁要夺走所有工作,他们真的需要去发现这一点带来的麻烦吗?
His behavior affects everyone invested in his companies, for better or worse, including those theoretical 72 million children. For a long time, “worse” has been a no-show; his fans have helped Tesla’s stock price defy traditional market logic for years. How long can the magic last? As tough as children have it these days, with the climate in chaos, war in Europe and the Middle East and AI threatening to take all of the jobs, do they really need the headache of finding out?