乌克兰战争、波斯湾战争、美国同盟体系承受更大压力、美国对手更加团结、人们对人工智能的社会不安：2026年不会被载入史册为平静的一年。
War in Ukraine, war in the Persian Gulf, growing stress in the American alliance system, greater cohesion among America’s opponents, social unease about artificial intelligence: 2026 won’t go down in history as a calm year.
现在，我们可以将代际冲突加入其中。2024年，年轻抗议者迫使孟加拉国总理谢赫·哈西娜下台，并挑战塞尔维亚的政治建制派。次年，代际骚动动摇并有时推翻了从尼泊尔和马达加斯加到摩洛哥和秘鲁的政府。上周震惊法国的骚乱以及印度各地的“蟑螂”运动，表明代际政治正从边缘走向世界政治的中心，挑战一些最强大、最有影响力国家的既有秩序。
Now, we can add generational conflict to the mix. In 2024 youthful protesters drove Bangladeshi Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina from power and challenged Serbia’s political establishment. The following year, generational unrest shook and sometimes toppled governments from Nepal and Madagascar to Morocco and Peru. The riots that shocked France last week and the “Cockroach” movement across India show generational politics moving from the margins to the center of world politics, challenging established orders in some of the most powerful and influential nations.