肯尼亚的汇款流入可能今年首次自2009年以来出现下降，原因是美国对汇款征收新税以及伊朗战争带来的不利因素削弱了该国最大的外汇来源。
Remittance flows to Kenya could decline this year for the first time since 2009, as a new US tax on money transfers and headwinds from the Iran war stunts the nation’s largest source of foreign exchange.
肯尼亚境外人士汇回的款项在2025年达到创纪录的50.4亿美元。根据肯尼亚央行数据，今年前九个月汇款放缓0.2%，至37.7亿美元。
Money sent home by Kenyans abroad hit a record $5.04 billion in 2025. In the first nine months of this year, remittances slowed 0.2% to $3.77 billion, according to Central Bank of Kenya data.
如果第四季度的汇入额与目前的月均水平持平，2026年的总额将略低于去年。
If final quarter inflows match the monthly average so far, the 2026 total will fall slightly short of last year’s total.
“1月至8月汇入额的减少反映出北美转账减弱，这种减弱超过了欧洲及世界其他地区的增加，”伦敦EBC金融集团高级市场分析师David Precious表示。
“The reduction in inflows over January to August reflects weaker transfers from North America, which outweighed higher inflows from Europe and the rest of the world,” said David Precious, senior market analyst at London-based EBC Financial Group.
他指出，影响因素包括自1月起美国对国际汇款征收的1%联邦税、沙特新增的交易税，以及由于冲突导致中东地区汇款减少。
Factors at play include a 1% US federal tax since January on international money transfers, new Saudi transaction taxes and weaker inflows from the Middle East due to the conflict, he said.
肯尼亚央行承认中东冲突对汇款的影响，但仍将其预测为略高于去年水平。
The Central Bank of Kenya acknowledged the impact of the Middle East conflict on remittances, the still projected them to be a bit higher than last year.
“过去两个月我们看到汇款出现一些回升，”央行行长Kamau Thugge在本月早些时候的新闻发布会上表示。
“In the last two months we have seen some recovery in remittances,” Governor Kamau Thugge told a press conference earlier this month.
“我们对汇款的预测一直非常谨慎，仅预计今年增长0.7%，明年增长3%。”他补充道。
“We have been very cautious about our projections for remittances and only projecting an increase of 0.7% for this year, followed by 3% next year,” he said.
KCB集团财库总监Anthony Mulisa表示，肯尼亚高度依赖美国汇款，美国占其入账汇款的55%，而美国更高的油价正在削弱家庭预算。“当生活成本上升时，这些人汇回家的金额肯定会减少，”他说。
Kenya depends heavily on the US, which accounts for 55% of inward remittances, said Anthony Mulisa, group treasurer at KCB Group Plc, and where higher gas prices are denting household budgets. “When the cost of living goes up, definitely the amounts that these guys are sending back home is supposed to reduce,” he said.