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特朗普政府削减卫星将使美国天气预报倒退十年Trump admin cuts to satellites will set back US weather forecasting by a decade

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美国国家海洋和大气管理局发布的这张卫星图像显示了9月6日逼近夏威夷的飓风“洛厄尔”。This satellite image released by NOAA shows Hurricane Lowell approaching Hawaii, on September 6.

专家表示,特朗普政府对气象卫星的削减将使该国倒退近十年。用于观测、预报和研究极端天气的数据丢失可能会阻碍该国在未来几年在天气预报方面取得重大进展。

The Trump administration’s cuts to weather satellites will set the country back nearly a decade, experts say. The loss of data used to observe, forecast and research extreme weather could prevent the country from making major advances in weather prediction in the coming years.

这一发现来自政府问责局(GAO)周五发布的一份新报告,以及民主党议员周一发送给美国国家海洋和大气管理局(NOAA)的一封信。

This finding comes from a new report released Friday from the Government Accountability Office, and a letter sent to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration on Monday from Democratic lawmakers.

GAO报告详细说明了对开发新一代地球静止轨道气象卫星计划所作预算削减的影响。这些大型卫星以固定距离绕地球运行,位于地球特定点的正上方。它们拍摄人们在晚间新闻或每日天气应用中看到的旋转云层和风暴系统的影像。这些卫星收集的数据对于发布准确的天气预报至关重要。

The GAO report details ramifications from budget cuts made to the program for developing new geostationary weather satellites. These large satellites orbit the Earth at a fixed distance, centered over specific spots on the planet. They take the imagery of swirling clouds and storm systems that people see on the evening news or on their weather app each day. The data gathered by these satellites are crucial to issuing accurate weather forecasts.

预算削减旨在将该计划的生命周期成本从196亿美元降至130亿美元。但GAO发现,这将引入卫星覆盖中断的风险——即当前地球静止轨道卫星(称为GOES-R系列)第一颗卫星寿命结束与第一颗新卫星于2032年投入使用之间可能出现空白期。

The budget reductions are aimed at taking the program from $19.6 billion in lifecycle costs to $13 billion. But they introduce the risk of a gap in satellite coverage between when the first of the current geostationary satellites, known as the GOES-R series, reaches the end of its service life, and when the first new satellite comes online in 2032, the GAO found.

GAO警告称,任何卫星覆盖中断——可能持续数月——将剥夺天气预报员的重要天气观测数据,并可能降低预报准确性。CNN已联系NOAA请求置评。

Any gap in satellite coverage, which the GAO warned could last for several months, would deprive weather forecasters of vital weather observations and could reduce forecast accuracy. CNN has reached out to NOAA for comment.

新卫星计划被称为地球静止扩展观测(GeoXO)计划。去年,特朗普政府指示NOAA和NASA(NASA正与NOAA合作开发航天器)将新星座中的卫星数量从六颗减少到四颗,并取消这些卫星原定搭载的五个仪器中的三个。

The new satellite program is called the Geostationary Extended Observations program, or GeoXO. Last year, the Trump administration directed NOAA and NASA, which is working with NOAA to develop the spacecraft, to reduce the number of satellites that would be part of the new constellation from six to four, and to eliminate three of the five instruments that these satellites are each slated to carry.

正如CNN去年所报道的,仪器的变动部分是出于缩小卫星在天气预报方面适用性的推动,而不是同时进行气候研究。被取消的仪器包括:用于监测空气质量的工具,包括对野火烟雾进行每小时监测;以及用于研究水质和洋流、以及有害藻华的仪器。

As CNN reported last year, the instrument changes were partly motivated by a push to narrow the satellites’ applicability to weather forecasting, rather than conducting climate research as well. Among the instruments that were nixed: a tool to monitor air quality, including hourly monitoring of wildfire smoke; as well as one meant to study water quality and ocean currents, along with harmful algae blooms.

但同样被取消的还有GOES-R卫星搭载的一种仪器的新版本,称为地球静止闪电测绘仪。该传感器首次于2017年部署在GOES卫星上,能够探测全球任何地方的闪电闪现,并已被证明在预测龙卷风以及监测热带风暴和飓风的快速增强方面非常有用。其他应用包括航空天气预报和野火监测。

But so too was a new version of an instrument carried by GOES-R satellites, known as the Geostationary Lightning Mapper. This sensor, first deployed on a GOES satellite in 2017, can detect lightning flashes anywhere on the globe and has proved to be useful for predicting tornadoes as well as monitoring the rapid intensification of tropical storms and hurricanes. Other applications include weather forecasting for aviation and wildfire monitoring.

GAO报告指出,首颗GeoXO卫星在2032年发射时将不搭载这些仪器。相反,它将搭载之前卫星型号上已有的工具,例如可见光和红外成像仪,用于昼夜追踪风暴;以及红外探测仪,该仪器通过获取大气的垂直剖面,可在向天气模型输入数据方面特别有用。探测仪数据包括风速和风向以及湿度水平等条件。

The first GeoXO satellite will have none of those instruments on board when it launches in 2032, the GAO report stated. Instead, it will carry tools already available on previous satellite models, such as a visible and infrared imager to track storms day and night and an infrared sounder that can be especially useful in feeding data into weather models by taking a vertical snapshot of the atmosphere. The sounder data includes conditions like wind speed and direction as well as humidity levels.

最初,NOAA计划同时运行三颗地球静止卫星,一颗位于美国东部上空,一颗位于美国中部上空,另一颗位于美国西部上空。此外,NOAA还要求有一颗备用卫星,以便在运行卫星出现仪器故障或其他意外时能够接替其任务。

Originally, NOAA was planning to have three geostationary satellites operating simultaneously, one over the Eastern US, one above the Central US and another above the West. In addition, NOAA requires a spare satellite to be capable of taking over for one of the operational satellites in case of an instrument failure or other mishap.

然而,鉴于新的预算削减和仪器变动,如今只会有一颗GeoXO卫星位于东部上空,一颗位于西部上空,再加上一颗备用卫星。

However, given the new budget cuts and instrument changes, there will now only be a GeoXO satellite over the East and one over the West, along with a backup satellite.

GAO质疑这些新卫星是否比目前在轨卫星更先进。报告称:“目前尚不清楚GeoXO是否会改善,甚至是否能够继续提供当前一代卫星所具备的功能。”

The GAO questioned whether these new satellites are more advanced than what is in orbit. “It is unclear whether GeoXO will improve, or even continue, the functionality available in the current generation of satellites,” the report said.

闪电测绘仪的缺失意味着当前一代GOES-R卫星的能力出现损失。

The lightning mapper’s absence represents a loss of capabilities from the current generation of GOES-R satellites.

曾领导NOAA卫星部门、现任HyperionEO LLC(一家专注于地球观测的咨询公司)首席执行官的史蒂夫·沃尔茨表示:“我们现在对天气信息的需求比十年前大得多。”他表示,被取消的其他仪器原本将专门用于满足“国会提出的具体要求”。他警告称,GeoXO卫星上仪器的削减可能使美国在提升预报精度方面落后于欧洲、日本和中国。

“Our need for weather information is much greater now than it was ten years ago,” said Steve Volz, who used to lead NOAA’s satellites division and is now CEO at HyperionEO LLC, a consulting firm focused on Earth observations. He said the other nixed instruments would have specifically addressed “stated requirements from Congress.”He warned the cuts made to instruments on the GeoXO satellites could put the US behind Europe, Japan and China in advancing forecast accuracy.

众议院科学委员会首席民主党议员佐伊·洛夫格伦和民主党众议员加布·阿莫在周一致NOAA局长的信中写道,政府正准备让美国的天气预报能力倒退数年,而非提升其能力。

The top Democrat on the House science committee, Zoe Lofgren, and Democratic member Gabe Amo wrote in a Monday letter to the NOAA administrator that the administration is poised to set the US back years on weather forecasting rather than advancing its capabilities.

信中(该信首次共享给CNN)写道:“得益于特朗普政府,美国下一代气象卫星很可能比目前的卫星更差。”

“Thanks to the Trump Administration, the next generation of America’s weather satellites could very well be worse than the current ones,” the letter, shared first with CNN, states.

信中还说:“两颗更少的卫星和三项更少的科学仪器并非预算中的简单条目。它们代表了美国理解天气、气候及周围世界能力的具体、可感知的削弱。”

“Two fewer satellites and three fewer scientific instruments are not line items in a budget. They represent a concrete, tangible weakening of America’s ability to understand the weather, the climate, and the world around us,” the letter says.

该信函要求NOAA领导层提供有关GeoXO项目中某些仪器损失的成本效益分析等文件的信息。

The letter seeks information from NOAA leadership regarding any cost-benefit analyses completed regarding the loss of certain instruments from GeoXO, among other documents.

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