美国海军最近因过于专注于中东而忽视了亚太地区，而受到了一些批评。美国海军陆战队则不能同日而语，该部队于2019年公布了一项新战略，依靠分散的海军陆战队小组在群岛作战中运用无人机和反舰导弹，以扰乱中国的海上扩张。随着海军陆战队正在所谓美军的最前沿开发新能力，美国海军陆战队的战略吸引了大量中国防务专家的关注，也就不足为奇了。本文总结了近期几份中文评估报告。
The U.S. Navy has taken some heat recently for focusing too heavily on the Middle East and neglecting the Asia-Pacific. The same cannot be said of the U.S. Marine Corps, which unveiled a new strategy in 2019 relying on dispersed groups of Marines to wield drones and anti-ship missiles in archipelagic warfare in order to unhinge Chinese maritime expansion. As the Marines are developing new capabilities at the pointy end of the American spear, so to speak, it’s not surprising that USMC strategy is attracting lots of attention from Chinese defense experts. This article summarizes several recent Chinese-language assessments.
北京对美国海军陆战队新战略的高度关注，在大约一年前《环球时报》发表的一篇不同寻常的社论中变得明朗，该社论谴责华盛顿部署靠近中国的反舰 missiles（原文如此，此处按原文翻译为：反舰导弹）的新决心。该文章认为，华盛顿的新战略旨在纠正美国海军对“公海控制”而非“狭窄水域近距离交战”的优先顺序，并得出结论称，华盛顿“控制海上战略要道”的努力“旨在限制竞争对手在海上活动的自由……（并且）带来了新的风险……”。
The close attention that Beijing is paying to the new USMC strategy became clear about a year ago when the Global Times [环球时报] published an unusual editorial decrying Washington’s new determination to deploy anti-ship missiles proximate to China. Arguing that the new American strategy aims to correct a U.S. Navy prioritization for “open ocean control” rather than “close-quarters engagement in confined waters,” this article concludes that Washington’s effort to “control maritime chokepoints [aims to] curtail the freedom of rivals to operate at sea … [and] introduces new risks … .”
2025年年初，海军杂志《现代舰船》上刊登了一项对美国海军陆战队新战略更为详细的研究。这篇中国评估报告相当警惕地指出，美国海军陆战队正在试验能够发射隐身LRASM反舰巡航导弹的无人水面艇，并且这些部队还可以充当前方侦察兵，为美军远程火力锁定目标。不过，该分析强调了美国海军陆战队战略的一些弱点，包括相关传感器和无人机的射程限制，甚至将美国海军陆战队的防空能力描述为“脆弱的”。该杂志上的另一项研究早些时候曾提请人们注意新战略带来的后勤困境。
A much more detailed study of the new USMC strategy appeared in early 2025 in the naval magazine Modern Ships [现代舰船]. This Chinese assessment noted with considerable alarm that the USMC was experimenting with unmanned surface vessels capable of firing the stealthy LRASM anti-ship cruise missile and that these units could alternatively serve as forward scouts, fixing targets for long-range U.S. military fires. Still, this analysis underlines some weaknesses of the USMC strategy, including the range limitations of related sensors and drones, and even characterized the air-defense capabilities of the USMC as “precarious.”Another study in this same magazine had earlier drawn attention to the logistics quandaries raised by the new strategy.
一篇2026年发表在另一家中国海军直属杂志《舰载武器》上的中国分析文章，对海军陆战队的新方针提出了更为尖锐的批评，指出海军陆战队滨海作战团（MLR）的建立“实际上代表了美国海军陆战队为军事干预中国统一所进行的战役准备”。该研究一开始便指出，许多美国智库对这一战略提出了质疑，认为在没有海空控制权的情况下，前沿基地可能会被证明是“站不住脚的”。
A 2026 Chinese analysis in another Chinese navy-affiliated magazine, Shipborne Weapons [舰载武器], offers a sharper critique of the Marines’ new approach, noting that the creation of the Marine Littoral Regiments (MLR) “actually represents campaign preparation by the USMC to militarily intervene in China’s unification.”At the outset, this study notes that many American think tanks raised doubts about the strategy, suggesting that forward bases without sea and air control could prove “untenable.”
这篇分析承认，美国海军陆战队目前部署的新型机动导弹发射器体型小、重量轻，因此“不易被……侦察发现”。最后，该研究得出结论认为，美国海军陆战队的战略存在脆弱性，因为“美国无法迅速建立制空权。这可能需要数周或数月时间，并会带来巨大的损失”。在中国专家就美国海军陆战队新方向所撰写的文章中，最引人注目的一篇最近由美国海军战争学院（NWC）中国研究所翻译发表。
There is a recognition in this analysis that the new mobile missile launchers that are being deployed by the USMC are small, light, and thus “not easily discovered by … surveillance.”In the end, this study concludes that the USMC strategy is vulnerable because the “U.S has no way to quickly establish air superiority. This could take weeks or months and would entail massive losses.”Among the most remarkable pieces written by Chinese experts on the new USMC direction is one that was published in translation recently by the China institute at U.S. Naval War College (NWC).
这篇译文值得给予额外关注，因为它是由中国海军现役高级军官撰写的，而且最初也发表在中国一份敏感的内部发行的军事杂志上。
That translation deserves extra attention due to the fact that it was written by senior active-duty Chinese Navy officers and also because it was published originally in a sensitive internal circulation Chinese military journal too.
虽然这篇文章没有直接触及敏感的台湾问题，并且也明确指出美国海军陆战队战略旨在威慑北京，但它同时解释称，美国海军陆战队的新部署等同于“对我近海的持续渗透与蚕食”，并主G张中国必须“建立有效的反制措施”。值得注意的是，这篇高水平的译文详细地将美国海军陆战队战略与中国不断改善的潜艇部队联系起来，并指出前沿部署的海军陆战队力量可以部署“水声阵列和其他资产，以建立屏障区和监控区域来追踪中国潜艇的行动”。
Though this piece does not touch directly on the sensitive Taiwan issue, and it also explicitly notes the USMC strategy aims at deterrence of Beijing, it nevertheless explains that the new USMC deployments amount to “continuous penetration and encroachment into our near seas” and argues that China must “establish effective countermeasures.”Notably, this high-level rendering links the USMC strategy to China’s improving submarine force in significant detail, observing that forward deployed Marine forces could deploy “hydro-acoustic arrays and other assets to establish barrier zones and monitoring areas to track Chinese submarine operations.”
文中还提出了类似观点，即美方部署可能会通过使用无人机蜂群“来压垮我们的雷达追踪能力”，从而削弱中国防空能力。
Similar arguments are made that U.S. deployments could degrade Chinese air defenses by employing drone swarms “to overwhelm our radar tracking capacity.”
中国海军作者警告称，不应投入资源密集型资产来击败此类美国非对称战术。然而，这篇文章的结论却相当令人不安，因为它主张中国必须通过采取中国式的“主动进攻姿态、积极拓展作战纵深、[以及]前沿投送兵力”来对抗这种态势。他们进一步详细建议：“我们必须维持并常态化前沿部署力量，尽可能将水下作战能力向前方延伸。”
The Chinese Navy authors caution against applying resource-intensive assets to defeat such American asymmetric tactics. However, the conclusion of the article is rather disturbing since it argues that China must counter this posture by deploying a Chinese “proactive offensive posture, aggressively expand[ing] our operational reach, [and] project[ing] forces forward.”Elaborating, they counsel: “We must maintain and normalize forward-deployed forces, extend[ing] undersea combat capabilities as far forward as feasible.”
这一结论以及这些中文分析的其他方面，给美国国防规划者带来了一些相当棘手的问题。美国海军战争学院完成的最终翻译强烈暗示，中国海军可能正在采取一种更具攻击性的方法，作为对美国战略前沿倾斜的直接反应。这似乎是所谓“安全困惑”的一个非常清晰的体现，即两个大国的防御措施演变成了一种危险的升级螺旋。
This conclusion and other aspects of these Chinese-language analyses raise some rather uncomfortable questions for U.S. defense planners. The final translation done by NWC strongly hints that the Chinese Navy may be adopting a more aggressive approach as a direct reaction to the forward lean in American strategy. This seems to be a very clear manifestation of the so-called ‘security dilemma,’ wherein two powers’ defensive measures develop into a dangerous escalatory spiral.
此外，中国战略家们也有清晰的认知，即鉴于后勤挑战以及缺乏适当的防空和反导防御，美国海军陆战队的前沿分队可能会很脆弱。
Moreover, there is a clear recognition by Chinese strategists that forward USMC elements could be vulnerable due to logistics challenges and lack of proper air and missile defenses.
这并非美国海军陆战队第一次在东亚仓促部署并付出大量美国人的生命代价。
It would not be the first time that the USMC was deployed haphazardly in East Asia at the cost of many American lives.
理解了这些动态，美国领导人应当重新校准，并选择减少对前沿防卫的依赖。或者，美国海军陆战队应当致力于利用太平洋及其无数群岛（例如菲律宾）的战略纵深，实施一种成本更低、风险更小、更具可持续性且明确具有防御性的战略。
Understanding these dynamics, American leaders should recalibrate and opt to rely less on forward defense. Alternatively, the USMC should aim to embrace the strategic depth of the Pacific and its myriad island archipelagos (e.g. the Philippines) in a less costly, less risky, more sustainable, and clearly defensive strategy.
莱尔·戈德斯坦（Lyle Goldstein）是布朗大学沃森国际和公共事务研究所中国项目主任，同时也是智库“国防优先”亚洲项目主任。
Lyle Goldstein is director of the China Initiative at Brown University’s Watson School and concurrently serves as director of the Asia Program at the think-tank Defense Priorities.