
。MAGA运动如今正冲刺着迎接中期选民,其起源可以在许多地方找到。
Corruption charges once propelled MAGA. Now they may doom it You can find the origins of the MAGA movement, now hurtling toward its rendezvous with the midterm electorate, in many places.
最明显、最直接的前身,当然是2009年和2010年的茶党运动。对华尔街和底特律救助的两党反弹,与保守派对奥巴马医保的愤怒融合,成为共和党“荒野时代”的主导声音。
The most obvious, straight-line antecedent is, of course, the Tea Party revolt of 2009 and 2010. The bipartisan backlash against the bailouts of Wall Street and Detroit fused with the conservative outrage at ObamaCare became the dominant voice in Republicans’ wilderness era.
正是在那里,唐纳德·特朗普加入了战斗,从突然变得非常活跃的右翼沼泽中,抓住了这样一个观点:时任总统奥巴马是一个隐秘的肯尼亚人——是伊斯兰主义版的“满洲候选人”。大家都知道那个故事:当特朗普成功迫使奥巴马公布出生证明时,时任《名人学徒》主持人特朗普出席了2011年白宫记者协会晚宴。奥巴马和压轴喜剧演员塞思·梅耶斯反复嘲讽特朗普,引得观众哄堂大笑。传说特朗普就在那晚决定自己竞选总统。
That was where Donald Trump joined the fray, latching on to the idea from the swamps of the suddenly very-online right, that then-President Obama was a stealth Kenyan — the Manchurian candidate, but for Islamism. You all know the story about how, at the moment when Trump succeeded in forcing Obama to release his birth certificate, the then-host of “The Celebrity Apprentice” attended the 2011 White House Correspondents’ Association dinner. Obama and headliner Seth Meyers roasted Trump repeatedly to the howling delight of the audience. Legend has it that Trump decided to run for president himself that night.
要看一个完美的圆满时刻,可以看看奥巴马演讲的开场蒙太奇,它使用霍克·霍根的主题曲《真正的美国人》来嘲讽低俗的爱国主义,以及这首歌在2024年共和党全国代表大会上用来介绍“霍格先生”本人支持特朗普的情景。奥巴马的支持者无疑认为自己是在嘲讽特朗普自身粗俗的爱国主义和排外主义表达,但就像很多晚期奥巴马主义一样,这看起来相当自以为是。
For a nice full-circle moment, watch the opening montage for Obama’s speech, which uses Hulk Hogan’s theme song “Real American” to mock lowbrow patriotism, and the use of the song to introduce the Hulkster himself endorsing Trump at the 2024 Republican National Convention. The Obamanauts no doubt believed they were actually mocking Trump’s own vulgar expressions of patriotism and xenophobia, but like a lot of late Obamism, it seemed pretty smug.
即使许多特朗普支持者在暗自嘲笑那些不带讽刺意味地热爱职业摔跤、如同热爱特朗普和李·格林伍德品牌的《圣圣经》(仍只售59.99美元)的乡巴佬,他们也不会让这些“冤大头”看出来。
And even if many of the Trumpsters were quietly LOL-ing at the yokels who unironically love pro wrestling like they love a Trump and Lee Greenwood-branded Holy Bible (still just $59.99) they weren’t letting it on to the marks.
从奥巴马胜选到特朗普2024年政治登顶,中间隔了整整13年(奥巴马公布出生证明的晚宴与他宣布击毙本·拉登同在一周);特朗普在幸遇刺杀未遂仅数天后,登上了他那场“霍克曼尼亚”式提名大会的舞台。推动这一切的,与茶党兴起时的那种愤怒如出一辙:许多“真正的美国人”认为游戏规则对他们不利,而戴夫·查佩尔曾著名地称特朗普为“诚实的骗子”,他将帮助推翻这一切。
It was 13 long years from the triumph of Obama (the birth certificate dinner was the same week he announced the killing of Osama bin Laden) to the political apotheosis of Trump in which he, having survived an assassination attempt just days earlier, took the stage at his Hulkamaniac nominating convention in 2024. And propelling it all was the same kind of rage that had given the Tea Party its start: the belief among many “real Americans” that the game was rigged against them and that Trump, whom Dave Chappelle famously called “an honest liar,” would help tear it all down.
另一位鲜为人知的MAGA先驱是罗斯·佩罗1992年的总统竞选及其催生的改革党。那实际上是特朗普初次涉足总统政治,曾短暂竞逐该党2000年的提名。如果你从未读过马特·拉巴什关于那场夭折的特朗普竞选的报道,不妨一读。其观点是,特朗普是商人佩罗的合乎逻辑的继承人:一位富得无人能收买、又名气太大无人能压制的候选人。
Another, less remembered forerunner of MAGA was Ross Perot’s 1992 presidential candidacy and the Reform Party it birthed. That was actually where Trump first dipped his toes into presidential politics, with a short-lived campaign for the party’s 2000 nomination. If you’ve never read Matt Labash’s dispatch from the abortive Trump effort, do yourself a favor. The idea is that Trump was a logical heir to fellow businessman Perot: a candidate too rich to buy and too famous to be silenced.
当时正是这种时代精神:伊朗门事件的余韵犹在,竞选资金改革是热门议题,而比尔·克林顿的丑闻——从略带龌龊到彻头彻尾的卑劣不等——从他宣布参选之日起,一直主导着政治新闻,直至他卸任的最后一天。佩罗有许多离奇的想法,但他竞选的核心论点是,华盛顿已被游说者和特殊利益集团淹没,而他将纠正这一切。
It was in the zeitgeist back then, when the whiff of Iran-Contra was still in the air, campaign finance reform was a hot issue and the scandals of Bill Clinton, ranging from the slightly sordid to the outright sleazy, had dominated political news from the time he launched his candidacy to his final day in office. Perot had a lot of way-out ideas, but the central argument of his candidacies was that Washington had been overrun by lobbyists and special interests and that he would set things right.
“如果像我这样受上天眷顾的人都不愿意去清理牛棚,谁来干?”佩罗常爱这么说。这与特朗普的“我是你们的复仇”相去甚远,但两者也有重叠之处:大人物、局外人、强硬作风、意想不到的救世主。佩罗演的是威尔·凯恩警长那一套,而特朗普更像是在演托尼·索普拉诺,但那个愿意且能够做艰难且必要之事的硬汉形象,向来对担忧遥远精英积聚权力的美国人极具吸引力。
“If someone as blessed as I am is not willing to clean out the barn, who will?”Perot liked to say. It’s a far cry from Trump’s “I am your retribution,” but there’s some overlap there: the big man, the outsider, the hard edge, the unlikely savior. Perot was playing it like Marshal Will Kane, while Trump was doing more of a Tony Soprano take, but the idea of the tough guy, willing and able to do hard and necessary things, has always been very appealing to Americans concerned about the accumulation of power by remote elites.
首任期内,特朗普深耕这一人设。他大张旗鼓地宣布总统薪水将捐给哪个政府机构——退伍军人事务、学校、健康项目、基础设施、国家公园管理局等。而在第二任期,我只找到过一次此类宣布:去年8月声称薪水将用于白宫翻修。
In his first term, Trump leaned into that persona. He made a show of announcing which government agency would be getting the proceeds of his presidential paycheck — veterans, schools, health programs, infrastructure, the National Park Service etc. In the second term, I could find only one such announcement: a claim in August of last year that his paycheck was going to White House renovations.
同样,首任期内他不遗余力地至少对自己及家族在总统任内的商业活动遵守道德限制做做样子。并非说他或家族完全遵守了那些规则,但正如谚语所言,“虚伪是恶行向美德致敬的方式。”批评者或许会嘲笑特朗普声称放弃更多财富和舒适来服务国家,但对于一开始就倾向于相信他的人来说,这可是个相当漂亮的说辞。当民主党人因特朗普从寻求政府照顾的外国人住酒店获利这种小恩小惠之事攻击他时,并未奏效。
Similarly, he went to great lengths in the first term to at least pay lip service to ethical restrictions on his and his family’s business activities during the presidency. It’s not that he or they followed those rules to the letter, but, as the saying goes, “hypocrisy is the tribute that vice pays to virtue.”Critics may have scoffed at Trump’s claims that he was giving up greater wealth and comfort to serve, but for those inclined to believe him in the first place, it was a pretty good pitch. When Democrats came after Trump for penny-ante stuff like profiting from the hotel stays of foreigners seeking favor with the administration, it didn’t land.
但在特朗普2.0时代,虚伪退场,厚颜无耻登场。特朗普敛聚的数十亿美元财富、对白宫豪华舞厅的痴迷、来自海外的奢华礼物以及给自家人的政府合同,这些已够糟糕了,但从政治角度看,损害最大的恐怕是:在美国民众对人工智能即将带来的冲击极度焦虑之际,特朗普却热烈地站在了其他亿万富翁的一边。正如在杰弗里·爱泼斯坦调查中未兑现的承诺那样,特朗普不再似乎是在领导愤怒的暴民,而是在转移他们的愤怒。
But in Trump 2.0, hypocrisy was out and brazenness was in. The billions Trump has raked in, the obsession with an opulent ballroom for the White House, lavish gifts from abroad and the government contracts for his family were bad enough, but probably the most damaging politically has been that at a moment when Americans are extremely anxious about the coming disruptions from artificial intelligence, Trump is enthusiastically on the same team as the other billionaires. As with the unfulfilled promises in the Jeffrey Epstein probe, Trump no longer seems to be leading the angry mob, but instead deflecting its rage.
许多人惊讶地发现,在最近一次福克斯新闻民调中,90%的选民将腐败列为首要关切,甚至超过了高物价。他们本不该震惊。美国民粹主义主要有两种口味:经济民粹主义和文化民粹主义。将它们联系在一起的是一种信念,即体制是针对他们的利益而被操纵的。如果特朗普让他的党站在了他曾领导的那群暴民的对立面,那么下个月就将付出惨重代价。
Many were surprised to see that in the most recent Fox News poll, corruption was a top concern for 90 percent of voters, ahead of even high prices. They shouldn’t have been shocked. There are two main flavors of American populism: economic and cultural. What unites them is the belief that the system is rigged against their interests. If Trump has put his party on the wrong side of the mob he once led, there will be hell to pay next month.
斯蒂尔沃尔特是《国会山报》政治编辑、资深竞选与选举记者,也是关于美国政治历史畅销书的作者。
Stirewalt is the politics editor for The Hill, veteran campaign and elections journalist and best-selling author of books about American political history.