根据 Redseer Strategy Consultants 的报告，印度在线零售市场预计将在 2026 年突破 900 亿美元大关，年增长率将达到 22% 至 24%，这是该市场五年来最快的增长速度。报告指出，推动这一增长的主要因素是日常消费品（如食品杂货），而非手机等电子产品。
India’s online retail market is projected to cross $90 billion in 2026, registering an annual growth of 22-24%, its fastest expansion in five years, driven by everyday consumption categories like grocery rather than mobile phones, Redseer Strategy Consultants said in a report.
分析显示，2026 年上半年电子商务的总额（GMV）同比增长了约 25%，达到约 380 亿美元，创下了四年来最好的上半年业绩。虽然在线零售市场发展迅速，但手机产品的销售额在整个上半年保持停滞（增长率为 0%）；预计全年手机产品的销售额仅增长 2% 至 3%，主要是因为价格大幅上涨抑制了销售量。因此，食品杂货领域有望超越手机产品，成为印度电子商务市场中第二大消费类别，仅次于服装行业。
According to the analysis, e-commerce gross merchandise value expanded roughly 25% year-on-year to about $38 billion in the first half of 2026, marking its strongest H1 performance in four years. While online retail accelerated, mobile sales remained flat at 0% growth during the first half and are projected to grow by just 2-3% across the full year due to sharp price increases curbing sales volumes. Consequently, the grocery segment is poised to overtake mobile phones as the second-largest category in Indian e-commerce, behind fashion.“This year, India’s online retail is growing fastest where demand is steadiest,” said Kushal Bhatnagar, Partner at Redseer.
Redseer 的合伙人 Kushal Bhatnagar 表示：“今年，印度在线零售市场的增长速度最快，尤其是在需求最为稳定的领域。”报告还指出，食品杂货、美容和个人护理产品以及家居用品将在 2026 年占据在线零售总额的约 40%，并贡献当年新增销售额的五分之三。其中，食品杂货领域的销售额预计将增长 50% 至 53%，市场份额将从 2025 年的 16% 上升到 2026 年的 19%；而去年占总销售额约 19% 的手机产品市场份额预计将下降至约 16%。
The report noted that grocery, beauty and personal care , and home and furniture will account for about 40% of overall online retail GMV in 2026 and roughly three-fifths of the incremental GMV added during the year. Grocery alone is projected to account for nearly a third of the added GMV, expanding 50-53% for the full year and lifting its market share from 16% in 2025 to 19% in 2026.
此外，美容和个人护理产品的销售额预计将增长 36% 至 39%，家居用品的销售额则预计增长 31% 至 34%。相比之下，电子产品在 2026 年上半年的销售额实现了 22% 的反弹，而 2025 年同期则出现了 5% 的下滑。
Mobiles, which accounted for around 19% of total sales last year, are expected to see their market share drop to roughly 16%.BPC is projected to rise 36-39%, while home and furniture is estimated to expand 31-34% in 2026. In contrast, electronics experienced a 22% rebound in H1 2026 after contracting 5% in the corresponding period of 2025.
Redseer将这一激增归因于“预加载”需求，这受到2025年9月大型家电商品及服务税从28%降至18%、因能效局星级标准变更导致空调大幅打折、液化石油气短缺推动电磁炉销量激增200%-300%，以及预期零部件涨价提前购买笔记本电脑等因素推动。预计电子产品板块增速将在下半年回归常态，达到12%-15%。
Redseer attributed this spike to “pre-loaded” demand, spurred by the reduction of goods and services tax on large appliances from 28% to 18% in September 2025, heavy discounting on air conditioners due to changes in Bureau of Energy Efficiency star ratings, an LPG shortage driving a 200–300% surge in induction cooktops, and early laptop purchases ahead of expected component price increases.
在通往排灯节前30-35天的窗口期内，在线销售预计将同比增长约25%，达到150亿-160亿美元，代表五年来最强劲的节日增长。
“Redseer预计，食品杂货、美妆个护、家居家具和一般商品的节前势头将延续至节日期间。食品杂货预计增长48%-50%，美妆个护35%-40%，家居家具32%-35%，而手机仅为5%-7%。”
报告补充道：“Redseer预测，手机和电子产品合计将跌破节日期间GMV（商品交易总额）的一半，按我们的测算从51%降至46%，原因是大幅涨价将抑制销量。”
Growth in the electronics segment is expected to normalise to 12-15% in the second half .For the 30-35-day window leading up to Diwali, online sales are forecast to expand about 25% year-on-year to reach $15-16 billion, representing the strongest festive growth in five years.“Redseer expects the pre-festive momentum in grocery, BPC, home and furniture, and general merchandise to carry over into it. Grocery is projected to grow 48-50%, BPC 35-40%, and home and furniture 32-35%, against 5-7% for mobiles.“Redseer projects that mobiles and electronics together will fall below half of festive GMV this year, from 51% to 46% by our calculation, owing to sharp price hikes that will keep volumes subdued,” the report added.