多哈——地区安全官员聚集在卡塔尔首都，为美国与伊朗之间可能出现的新一轮升级做准备之际，收到了一个令人清醒的美国信息：他们需要照顾好自己。
DOHA—Regional security officials received a sobering American message as they gathered in the Qatari capital and braced for a potential new round of escalation between the U.S. and Iran: They need to look out for themselves.
美国驻土耳其大使、特朗普总统叙利亚和伊拉克问题特使汤姆·巴拉克表示，数十年来支撑全球安全的宏大交易正在经历重大转型，中东及其他地区的国家应当专注于通过地区伙伴关系来保障自身安全。
Tom Barrack, the U.S. ambassador to Turkey and President Trump’s special envoy for Syria and Iraq, said the grand bargains that have underpinned global security for decades are undergoing major transformation, and countries in the Middle East and elsewhere should focus on securing themselves via regional partnerships.
“过去80年来，美国作为世界的担保者，不复存在了，”巴拉克在多哈全球安全论坛上表示。该论坛是一年一度的峰会，汇聚来自世界各地的顶级安全官员和专家。“这届政府正在发生的事情不是抛弃。这是一个重新调整的信号。”“而这个信号就像抚养一个青少年。这并不容易，”他说。
“America as the guarantor to the world, for the last 80 years, it is no longer there,” Barrack said at the Global Security Forum in Doha, an annual summit that brings together top security officials and experts from around the world. “What’s happening in this administration is not an abandonment. It’s a message for realignment.”“And that message is like raising a teenager. It’s not easy,” he said.
巴拉克表示，二战后缔结的安排——本质上是一种等价交换，即美国提供安全以换取石油——不再符合华盛顿的当务之急。美国人不愿为中东牺牲生命，海湾国家也知道美国无法确保它们的安全。
Arrangements forged in the wake of World War II—essentially a quid pro quo whereby the U.S. provided security in exchange for oil—no longer fit Washington’s imperatives, Barrack said. Americans don’t want to sacrifice their lives for the Middle East, and Gulf states know the U.S. can’t assure their security, he said.
他说，该地区转向更小、更多元的联盟是正确的，比如沙特阿拉伯、巴基斯坦和土耳其之间新的防御协定。但他承认，这一过渡将充满不确定性。
He said the region is right to pivot toward smaller and more diversified alliances like the new defense pact between Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Turkey. But he acknowledged the transition would be uncertain.
“我们没有现成的剧本，”他说。“我们都在临场发挥。我们只能一招一招地走。”特朗普政府官员曾在欧洲和亚洲的安全聚会上发出过类似的自力更生呼吁。
“We don’t have a playbook,” he said. “We’re all on audibles. We can go one play at a time.”Trump administration officials have delivered similar calls for self reliance at security gatherings in Europe and Asia.
海湾国家曾试图劝阻特朗普对伊朗发动战争，但未能成功。巴拉克的言论传递出一种担忧：美国可能会从冲突中抽身，留下海湾国家独自面对一个愤怒且变得更具侵略性的对手。许多人正在质疑能否依赖美国作为合作伙伴，尽管他们也认识到，在军事技术和支持方面，没有比美国更好的替代选择。
Gulf states tried and failed to talk Trump out of going to war with Iran. Barrack’s message lands as they worry the U.S. will retreat from the conflict, leaving them to deal with an angered and newly aggressive foe. Many are questioning whether they can rely on the U.S. as a partner even as they recognize there are no good alternatives to its military technology and backing.
巴拉克表示，美国和以色列于2月下旬发动的战争带来了意想不到的后果，他将中东局势比作魔方，一个举动就能改变整个局面。他说，这里有吸取的教训，也有美国力量的界限。
Barrack said the war launched by the U.S. and Israel in late February brought unexpected consequences, likening the Middle East to a Rubik’s Cube whereby a single move can change the whole picture. He said there are lessons to be learned and limits to U.S. power.
“每当我们试图干预、更换领导人或政权时，似乎都是一个错误，”他指着伊拉克、利比亚和阿富汗说道。
“Every time we try and intervene and change the person or the regime, it seems to have been a mistake,” he said, pointing to Iraq, Libya and Afghanistan.
历届美国政府长期以来一直希望从中东事务中抽身，但均未成功。即便在现在，特朗普政府传递出的信息也是好坏参半。
American administrations have long hoped to disentangle the country from the Middle East without success. Even now, the Trump administration is delivering a mixed message.
去年，美国将沙特阿拉伯列为主要非北约盟友，该名单还包括海湾邻国卡塔尔、巴林和科威特。特朗普也在继续在伊朗周边集结兵力。军方正在调入第三艘航空母舰和一个额外的海军陆战队远征部队，并正在补给部队，以备在必要时重启战斗。“我们不会离开，”巴拉克说。
Last year, the U.S. added Saudi Arabia as a major non-NATO ally, a list that includes Gulf neighbors Qatar, Bahrain and Kuwait. Trump also continues to build up forces around Iran. The military is bringing in a third aircraft carrier and an additional Marine expeditionary unit, and is resupplying forces in case needed for a renewed fight. “We’re not leaving,” Barrack said.
特朗普和伊朗官员均已发出信号，表明他们正在为外交僵持数月后可能恢复大规模敌对行动做准备。美国已加大对伊朗政权的经济施压，但迄今未能取得突破，地区盟友正在为可能到来的又一轮战斗做准备，这可能会波及敏感的能源基础设施。
Both Trump and Iranian officials have signaled they’re preparing for a possible resumption of large-scale hostilities after a monthslong impasse in diplomacy. The U.S. has ramped up economic pressure on the regime, but that has so far failed to bring about a breakthrough, and regional allies are bracing for the possibility of another round of fighting that could potentially hit sensitive energy infrastructure.
海湾国家正紧张地关注着沙特阿拉伯，那里的能源设施和首都利雅得的国际机场已遭到伊朗支持的胡塞武装发射的导弹和无人机袭击而受损。
Gulf countries are looking nervously at Saudi Arabia, where missile and drone attacks by Iran-backed Houthi militants have damaged energy facilities and the international airport in the capital, Riyadh.
沙特阿拉伯曾呼吁美国进行军事干预，但特朗普将美国的角色限制在提供情报和指导方面。胡塞武装的袭击所造成的破坏加剧了人们对该地区抵御进一步导弹和无人机攻击能力的担忧——因为该地区的防空系统在战争初期就已经遭到严重破坏。
Saudi Arabia appealed to the U.S. to intervene militarily, but Trump has limited the country’s role to providing intelligence and guidance. The damage done by the Houthis’ attacks has heightened concerns about the region’s ability to fend off further missile and drone incursions after burning through air defenses earlier in the war.
前总统乔·拜登时期负责中东事务的高级外交官芭芭拉·利夫表示，该地区的盟友已经在逐步减少对美国保护的依赖，但美国的撤退也有一定的限度。
Barbara Leaf, a top Middle East envoy under former President Joe Biden, said regional allies are already moving away from dependence on U.S. protection but there are limits to an American retreat.
“我认为，这些盟友已经在采取许多合理的措施，比如多元化他们的安全合作伙伴关系以及安全防御装备的来源，”她在多哈表示，“不过我们目前还无法预见到事情最终会如何发展，也不知道这些地区盟友最适合采取什么样的防御策略；但他们确实需要像美国这样的强大盟友。”国际危机组织（International Crisis Group）的伊朗问题分析师阿里·瓦埃兹（Ali Vaez）指出，该地区从不同的美国官员那里听到了相互矛盾的信息，这损害了美国的信誉，导致各国不得不采取更为谨慎的应对策略。
“They’re already doing, I think, a lot of logical things—diversification of security partnerships and security defense equipment resources,” she said, also speaking in Doha. “I think we simply haven’t seen where things will ultimately go yet, and therefore how these regional partners are best suited to defend themselves, but they do need big partners like the U.S.” Ali Vaez, an Iran analyst at International Crisis Group, said the region hears different messages from different U.S. officials, which hurts America’s credibility and leads countries to hedge their bets.
“归根结底，美国仍将在该地区的防务事务中发挥重要作用，但事实证明，单靠美国的力量显然是不够的，”他说。
“At the end of the day, the United States will remain highly influential and involved in the region’s defense, but it has proven to be clearly insufficient,” he said.