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特朗普再也无法掩盖他的真实议程Trump Can No Longer Mask His Real Agenda

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特朗普已无法掩饰其真实意图特朗普2017年1月20日首次就职演说中最令人难忘的一句话是:“我们国家被遗忘的男男女女将不再被遗忘。”

Trump Can No Longer Mask His Real Agenda One of the most memorable lines in President Trump’s first Inaugural Address on Jan. 20, 2017, was: “The forgotten men and women of our country will be forgotten no longer.’

这句话效果太好,以至于他在2024年7月18日第三次接受共和党总统提名的演说中又重复使用:“致所有被忽视、被抛弃、被落下的被遗忘的男男女女,你们将不再被遗忘。”政客们惯于过度承诺,候选人和选民私下都心知肚明,选举的另一端不会有奶与蜜之地。

It was so good, in fact, that he recycled it in his speech accepting the Republican presidential nomination for the third time, on July 18, 2024: “To all of the forgotten men and women who have been neglected, abandoned and left behind, you will be forgotten no longer.”Politicians routinely overpromise, with the candidate and the voters privately recognizing that there will be no land of milk and honey on the other side of the election.

然而,特朗普绝非寻常政客。在他的三次总统竞选中,他一再声称要做美国工人阶级的救世主。然而,这些说法掩盖了他的真实议程:保护并增加超级富豪——最重要的是他自己——的财富和收入,只给挣扎中的工人阶级留下微不足道的残羹冷炙。

Trump, however, is anything but a routine politician. Throughout his three presidential campaigns, he claimed again and again to be the savior of working-class America. Those claims, however, mask his real agenda: to protect and enhance the wealth and income of the superrich — most importantly himself — while leaving driblets behind for the struggling working class.

特朗普获得机会兑现“不忘被遗忘者”承诺后实际推行的政策表明,除非“被遗忘”指的是他自己,否则他对美国被遗忘的男男女女几乎毫不在意,甚至完全不在意。

The actual policies Trump has enacted, given the chance to make good on his promise to remember the forgotten, show that he has little or no regard for America’s forgotten men and women unless by forgotten he means himself.

如果特朗普对真相有任何责任感——哈,哈,哈——他会把自己归入法国国王路易十四的传统,而非安德鲁·杰克逊和伯尼·桑德斯的行列。

If Trump felt any obligation to truth — ha, ha, ha — he would place himself in the same tradition as King Louis XIV of France, not in the line of Andrew Jackson and Bernie Sanders.

针对我的询问,加州大学伯克利分校经济学家、斯通财富与收入不平等研究中心主任埃马纽埃尔·萨埃兹写道:我们的实时不平等数据显示,自2025年初特朗普重返白宫以来,扣除物价通胀后,美国收入最低的90%人群收入停滞不前。收入最高的10%人群收入增长了6%,而收入最高的1%等高收入群体增幅更高。从实际美元变化的角度分析,收入的逆向再分配更为显著。处于收入分配底部 50% 的成年人平均损失了 31 美元。处于中间阶层的人平均获得了 570 美元。

In reply to my inquiry about Trump’s regressive policies, Emmanuel Saez, an economist and director of the Stone Center on Wealth and Income Inequality at the University of California, Berkeley, wrote by Our real-time inequality data show that since the beginning of 2025, when Trump returned to the White House, incomes of the bottom 90 percent of Americans have stagnated after taking into account price inflation. Incomes of the top 10 percent have grown 6 percent with even higher growth for upper-income groups such as the top 1 percent. The regressive redistribution of income is more striking when analyzed in terms of actual dollar changes. Adults in the bottom half of the income distribution experienced a modest loss of $31 dollars. Those in the middle gained $570 on average.

对于处于顶层的人来说,情况截然不同。收入前 10% 的人平均获得 1.7 万美元;前 1% 的人平均获得 11 万美元;前 0.1% 的人平均获得 52 万美元;前 0.01% 的人平均获得 280 万美元;前 0.001% 的人平均每人获得 2000 万美元。

It’s a very different story for those in the top rungs. For the top 10 percent, a gain of $17,000; the top 1 percent, $110,000; top 0.1 percent, $520,000; top 0.01 percent, $2.8 million; top 0.001, $20 million each.

萨伊兹写道,更为引人注目的是,“亿万富翁阶层(前 0.001%,即最富有的 2600 个美国家庭)的财富激增,自 2025 年 1 月以来财富增长了约 18%。”美联储拥有按收入群体划分的净资产变化对比数据。

Even more striking, Saez wrote, “has been the surge in the wealth of the billionaire class (top .001 percent, or top 2,600 richest American families) with wealth increases of about 18 percent since January 2025.”The Federal Reserve has data comparing changes in net worth by income group.

大约 13.68 万户处于前 0.1% 的家庭,其净资产从 2025 年第一季度的 22.27 万亿美元增至 2026 年第二季度的 27.87 万亿美元,增加了 5.6 万亿美元。

The net worth of roughly 136,800 households in the top 0.1 percent grew to $27.87 trillion in the second quarter of 2026 from $22.27 trillion in the first quarter of 2025, a gain of $5.6 trillion.

特朗普及其家族正引领这一趋势。《纽约时报》报道,自他重返白宫以来,其财富至少增加了 22 亿美元。

Trump and his family are leading this charge. He increased his wealth by at least $2.2 billion since returning to office, The Times reported.

他当然拥有一大优势:白宫,以及大批寻求特赦、监管宽松、接触高层官员、争取合同等的男男女女。对特朗普而言,总统职位就是一台自动取款机,源源不断地向他吐出钞票,无需手续费 —— 事实上,根本没有偿还义务。

He had, of course, one big advantage: the White House and the legions of men and women seeking pardons, regulatory relief, access to top officials, contracts and so on. For Trump, the presidency is an A.T.M. handing him steady withdrawals, with no fees — in fact, no obligation to pay back at all.

现实中被称为 “被遗忘者” 的选民群体,即处于收入分配底部 50% 的约 6760 万户家庭,在同一时期表现如何?

How well did the constituency realistically described as forgotten do during the same period, the roughly 67,600,000 households in the bottom 50 percent of the income distribution?

他们的净资产总共增长了 4030 亿美元,从 3.875 万亿美元增至 4.278 万亿美元,平均每户增加 6000 美元。

Their net worth grew by a total $403 billion, to $4.278 trillion from $3.875 trillion, or a gain of $6,000 each.

结论是:在特朗普 “罗宾汉政权” 的第二任期内,前 0.1% 家庭的平均净资产增长速度,是底部 50% 家庭的 6800 倍。

Bottom line: During the second term of Trump’s Robin Hood regime, the net worth of the top 0.1 percent has grown 6,800 times faster on average per household than for those in the bottom half.

对于特朗普本人而言,这种对比是天文数字般的:他的财富增长速度比处于底层一半的家庭快出36.7万倍以上。

The comparison for Trump himself is astronomical: His riches grew at a rate more than 367,000 times faster than for a household in the bottom half.

问题在于:特朗普的“一个宏伟美丽法案”在累退性方面,是否超过了乔治·W·布什和罗纳德·里根政府时期通过的减税法案?这两位在推行“涓滴经济学”立法方面都毫不手软。

The question: Is Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act more regressive than the tax bills enacted during the administrations of George W. Bush and Ronald Reagan, both no slouches when it comes to pushing through trickle-down legislation?

我向杰森·弗曼提出了这个问题。他是奥巴马政府时期的白宫经济顾问委员会主席,现为哈佛大学肯尼迪学院经济政策教授。他的回答如下:单就税收政策而言,乔治·W·布什总统的政策比唐纳德·特朗普总统的更具累退性,其中包括将最高税率降至35%,而特朗普总统仅将其降至37%。

I posed this question to Jason Furman, a chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers during the Obama administration and now a professor of economic policy at Harvard’s Kennedy School. His response: President George W. Bush’s tax policies alone were more regressive than President Donald Trump’s, including cutting the top rate to 35 percent whereas President Trump only cut it to 37 percent.

但如果将税收和支出政策结合来看——这才是更重要的衡量方式——特朗普总统的政策组合比布什总统的累退得多,主要原因在于特朗普削减了医疗补助、“平价医疗法案”及其他低收入项目。相比之下,布什总统实际上略微扩大了所有这些项目。

But President Trump’s tax and spending policies combined — which is the more important way to look at it — are much more regressive than President Bush’s largely because of President Trump’s cuts to Medicaid, the Affordable Care Act and other low-income programs. In contrast President Bush actually slightly expanded all of those programs.

里根总统最初的税收和支出政策甚至比特朗普总统的更具累退性,但他八年执政的累积影响累退性要小得多,主要是因为他从1982年起签署了多项增税法案,部分抵消了1981年大规模减税的效果,更重要的是,他签署了一系列扩大医疗补助的法案,始于1984年,这是由亨利·瓦克斯曼等民主党人推动的。

President Reagan’s initial tax and spending policies were even more regressive than President Trump’s but the cumulative impact of his eight years was much less regressive largely because he signed multiple tax increases starting in 1982 that partly undid his huge 1981 tax cut and, even more important, he signed a series of Medicaid expansions starting in 1984 that were pushed by Henry Waxman and other Democrats.

在6月发表的论文《逆风翻盘?为何共和党的极度不平等税收与预算法案得以通过》中,耶鲁大学博士后研究员帕特里克·沙利文和政治学教授雅各布·S·哈克毫不犹豫地为特朗普加冕“倒退之王”:“2025年7月,国会共和党人和特朗普总统颁布了‘一项宏伟美丽法案’,这是现代美国历史上最倒退的税收与预算立法。”特朗普是如何做到的?

In their June paper, “Bucking Backlash? Why Republicans’ Hyper-Inegalitarian Tax and Budget Bill Passed,” Patrick Sullivan, a postdoctoral research associate, and Jacob S. Hacker, a professor of political science, both at Yale, show no doubt in crowning Trump the king of regression: “In July 2025, congressional Republicans and President Trump enacted the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, the most regressive tax and budget legislation in modern American history.”How did Trump pull it off?

首先,根据沙利文和哈克的说法,法案纳入了“民粹但财政影响微乎其微的税收条款”——小费免税——“主导了媒体报道和公众认知,而福利国家的削减则被重新包装为打击欺诈和促进就业。”

First, according to Sullivan and Hacker, was the inclusion of “populist but fiscally trivial tax provisions” — no taxes on tips — which “dominated media coverage and public awareness, while welfare state cuts were recast as fraud elimination and work promotion.”

“其次,特朗普对其在国会的盟友施加了更强的胁迫性控制,加剧了他们遭到基本盘选民报复的恐惧——这种恐惧不仅植根于精英极化,还源于初选挑战甚至人身伤害的可信威胁。”

“Second, Trump exercised greater coercive hold over his allies in Congress, increasing their fear of base-voter retribution — fear rooted not just in elite polarization but also credible threats of primary challenges and even personal harm.”

沙利文和哈克警告称,用于推动“一项宏伟美丽法案”通过的成功策略,似乎已为共和党提供了一套在尽量减少反对声中推行倒退性税收与支出立法的新策略,他们称之为“OBBBA行动手册”。“随着2026年中期选举临近,”他们指出,共和党的选举脆弱性显而易见。然而,这些脆弱性似乎反映的是对特朗普总统任期的更广泛负面反应,特别是他的关税政策和海外军事行动,而非针对共和党不平等立法成果的反弹。

Sullivan and Hacker warn that the successful strategy used to enact the One Big Beautiful Bill Act appears to have given Republicans new strategies to minimize opposition while enacting regressive tax and spending legislation, what they call an “OBBBA playbook.”“As the 2026 midterm approaches,” they note, Republicans’ electoral vulnerabilities are manifest. Yet they appear to reflect broader negative reactions to the Trump presidency, especially his tariffs and foreign military actions, not backlash against Republicans’ inegalitarian legislative achievements.

事实上,OBBBA中可能构成最大风险的部分——大幅增加移民与海关执法局(ICE)的支出——在2025年引发的争议相对较少。

In fact, the part of the O.B.B.B.A. that may pose the greatest risk elicited comparatively little controversy in 2025 — massively increased spending for Immigration and Customs Enforcement.

如果共和党人巧妙地转移了公众对其“一项宏伟美丽法案”历史性倒退性质的关注,却因自己引以为豪宣扬的法案条款而变得脆弱,那将是一种讽刺。

It would be ironic if Republicans who skillfully deflected attention away from the historic regressivity of their One Big Beautiful Bill found themselves vulnerable for elements of that bill they had proudly touted.

退一步看,涵盖广泛的政治和政策因素,税收与经济政策研究所联邦政策主任史蒂夫·沃姆霍夫本月发布了一份扩展报告——《特朗普关键政策对税收和成本的影响:全国和各州估算》。

Stepping back to encompass a wide range of political and policy factors, Steve Wamhoff, the federal policy director at the Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy, published an expanded report, “Impact of Key Trump Policies on Taxes and Costs: National and State Estimates,” this month.

沃姆霍夫论证称,除了极富裕阶层外,特朗普的政策对所有人都是一场全方位的灾难:“特朗普总统在其第二任期内的主要政策产生的净效应是,除最富有的 1% 人群外,2026 年每个收入群体的典型美国人的税收和成本都在上升。”沃姆霍夫写道,导致这种分配不公的原因包括特朗普第二任期的核心法案《一个宏伟美好的法案》、特朗普的关税、伊朗战争对燃油价格的影响、特朗普的移民政策,以及扩大医疗保健税收抵免的终止。

Wamhoff makes the case that Trump’s policies have been an across-the-board disaster for everyone except the very well-to-do: “The main policies of President Trump during his second term in office have had the net effect of raising taxes and costs in 2026 for the typical American in every income group except for the richest 1 percent.”Wamhoff writes that the causes of this maldistribution included the centerpiece of Trump’s second term, the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, Trump’s tariffs, the effect of the Iran war on fuel prices, Trump’s immigration policies and the end of an expanded tax credit for health care.

沃姆霍夫的结论是:除最富有的 1% 外,每个收入群体都因税收增加、福利减少和成本上升而失去立足点。最底层 20% 人群将在税收和消费成本上损失 750 美元,而其他收入群体的损失则在 1120 美元至 1730 美元之间。相比之下,最富有的 1% 人群则净获益 12560 美元。

Wamhoff’s conclusion: With the exception of the top 1 percent, every income group ends up losing ground through higher taxes, lost benefits and higher costs. The bottom 20 percent will lose $750 in taxes and consumer costs, while the losses for the other income groups range from $1,120 to $1,730. In contrast, those in the top 1 percent come out ahead by $12,560.

总统优先事项的最佳证据,可以在国会预算办公室对立法分析中的分配表中找到。

The best evidence of presidential priorities can be found in the distributional tables in the analyses of legislation by the Congressional Budget Office.

就特朗普而言,2017 年城市-布鲁金斯税收政策中心的报告《<减税与就业法案>会议协议的分配分析》,以及国会预算办公室 2025 年 6 月的报告《H.R. 1 <一个宏伟美好的法案> 的分配效应》,为其优先事项提供了关键洞见。

In Trump’s case, data from a 2017 Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center report, “Distributional Analysis of the Conference Agreement for the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act,” and the Congressional Budget Office’s June 2025 report “Distributional Effects of H.R. 1, the One Big Beautiful Bill Act” provide crucial insight into his priorities.

税收政策中心发现,特朗普 2017 年的税收立法具有明确的累退性。

The Tax Policy Center found that Trump’s 2017 tax legislation was decisively regressive.

研究预测,收入分配中处于后 60% 的人群在 2018 年获得的减税红利将不足 1000 美元,其中最底层的 20% 仅为 60 美元,第二 20% 为 380 美元,中间 20% 为 930 美元 —— 这远不够一家四口在迪士尼乐园玩上三天。

Those in the bottom 60 percent of the income distribution were projected in the study to receive benefits of less than $1,000 in 2018, $60 for the bottom quintile, $380 for the second quintile and $930 for the middle quintile — nowhere near enough for three days at Disneyland for a family of four.

而对于处于金字塔顶端的人来说,那一年预计将迎来丰厚的红利。最顶层的 1% 获得的减税额为 51140 美元,顶层 0.1% 更高达 193380 美元 —— 足以在迪士尼乐园待上几个月。

For those at the top of the ladder, there was projected to be an abundance of joy that year. The top 1 percent got a tax break of $51,140 and those in the top 0.1 percent got $193,380 — enough to spend months at Disneyland.

在执政的六年里,特朗普展现出了日益娴熟的“倒退”驾驭术。然而现在,民调显示选民正以越来越强烈的反击态势看穿了他。本月发布的福克斯新闻民调显示,特朗普的支持率跌至 36%,为“福克斯新闻民调有史以来的最低值”。令人担忧的是,如果在 11 月 3 日大选日遭遇严厉谴责,任期还剩两年的这个极其恶劣的人会作何反应。毕竟,他成年后的大半生都在向轻视他的人寻求报复,而在 11 月 4 日,他报复的目标很可能就是美国选民。马修·托宾为本文提供了研究协助。

Trump has demonstrated his increasingly sophisticated mastery of regression during his six years in office. Now, however, the polls suggest that voters are catching onto him with increasing vengeance. The Fox News poll released this month showed Trump’s approval rating falling to 36 percent, “his lowest ever in a Fox News survey.”What remains worrisome is how this godawful man will react to a severe rebuke on Election Day, Nov. 3., with two years still to go on his presidency. He has, after all, devoted much of his adult life to seeking revenge against those who dissed him, and on Nov. 4 the target of his lust for vengeance may well be the American voter. Matthew Tobin contributed research to this article.

托马斯·B·埃德索尔自 2011 年起担任《纽约时报》观点版撰稿人。他关于美国政治战略和人口趋势的文章每周二刊登。他此前曾在《华盛顿邮报》报道政治新闻。

Thomas B. Edsall has been a contributor to the Times Opinion section since 2011. His essays on strategic and demographic trends in American politics appear every Tuesday. He previously covered politics for The Washington Post.

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