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韩国出口热潮在央行利率决议前保持强劲South Korea’s Export Boom Stays Strong Ahead of BOK Rate Decision

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韩国出口在10月初保持强劲增长,全球对人工智能的旺盛需求推动半导体出货,凸显了韩国经济在央行利率决议前夕的韧性。

Korea’s exports maintained strong growth in early October as booming global demand for artificial intelligence fueled semiconductor shipments, underscoring the economy’s resilience on the eve of the central bank’s interest-rate decision.

海关周三发布的数据显示,按工作日调整后,10月前20天出口同比增长65.9%。9月同期增幅为89.8%。

Exports adjusted for working-day differences rose 65.9% from a year earlier in the first 20 days of October, according to customs office data released Wednesday. That compared with an 89.8% increase during the same period in September.

未经调整的基础上,出口增长105.4%,进口增长42.8%,贸易顺差达145亿美元。本月前20天出口总额为616亿美元,延续了势头;9月同期出口达714亿美元。

On an unadjusted basis, shipments gained 105.4%, while imports rose 42.8%, resulting in a trade surplus of $14.5 billion. Exports totaled $61.6 billion in the first 20 days of this month, extending momentum after shipments reached $71.4 billion during the same period in September.

由于中秋节假期今年在9月、去年在10月,年同比数据受到扭曲,因此工作日调整后的数字能更好地反映潜在趋势。

Year-on-year comparisons have been distorted by the timing of the Chuseok holidays, which fell in September this year and October last year, making the working-day-adjusted figures a better gauge of the underlying trend.

半导体仍是增长的主要引擎,芯片出口同比激增222.5%至275亿美元。石油产品出口增长68.3%,汽车出口增长近41%。

Semiconductors remained the main engine of growth, with chip exports surging 222.5% from a year earlier to $27.5 billion. Shipments of petroleum products increased 68.3%, while automobile exports gained almost 41%.

这些数据强化了这样一幅图景:繁荣的半导体部门支撑经济,同时也使通胀维持高位。这些数据将为韩国央行周四的利率决议提供关键经济参考,市场普遍预期央行将维持政策不变,以评估近期加息的影响。

The figures reinforce a picture of an economy powered by a booming semiconductor sector that is also keeping inflation elevated. The data will also provide the Bank of Korea a key economic input ahead of Thursday’s rate decision, where it is widely expected to keep policy unchanged as it weighs the impact of its recent rate hikes.

韩国央行8月将基准利率上调25个基点至3%,这是连续第二次加息,因增长强于预期且通胀粘性较大,促使决策者预防性地采取行动。韩国央行行长申贤松(Shin Hyun Song)表示,央行将维持限制性立场,直到确信通胀将收敛至2%目标。韩国央行或暂停加息以评估连续加息影响9月份总体通胀率从上个月的3.1%降至2.9%,但仍远高于央行的目标水平。申和烈表示,中东战争和人工智能热潮都在增加通胀压力。扣除波动较大的食品和能源价格后的核心通胀率上月为2.8%。

The BOK raised its benchmark rate by a quarter percentage point to 3% in August, its second straight hike, as stronger-than-expected growth and sticky inflation prompted policymakers to act preemptively. Governor Shin Hyun Song said the bank will keep a restrictive stance until it’s confident inflation will converge to its 2% target. Read Also: BOK Seen Taking Breather to Assess Impact of Back-to-Back Hikes Headline inflation eased to 2.9% in September from 3.1% a month earlier but remains well above the central bank’s target. Shin has said the Middle East war and the AI boom are both adding to inflationary pressure. Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, was 2.8% last month.

芯片周期的强劲表现提振了企业盈利和投资,不过政策制定者仍在评估这些收益在多大程度上惠及了家庭消费和更广泛的国内经济。

The strength of the chip cycle has boosted corporate earnings and investment, though policymakers are still assessing how widely those gains are spreading to household consumption and the broader domestic economy.

按目的地分,对华出口增长154.4%,对美出口增长154.9%。对马来西亚和新加坡的出口分别增长363.2%和121.1%。

By destination, exports to China climbed 154.4%, while shipments to the US gained 154.9%. Exports to Malaysia and Singapore rose 363.2% and 121.1%, respectively.

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