摩根士丹利表示，即使目前与战争相关的干扰缓解，油品市场仍可能在2027年年中前保持紧张，因为“异常大规模的炼厂检修上升”正在限制全球供应。
Oil-product markets are likely to remain tight through mid-2027, even if current war-related disruptions ease, as an “unusually large upswing in refinery maintenance” constrains global supply, according to Morgan Stanley.
分析师Martijn Rats和Charlotte Firkins等人在周二发布的一份报告中称，全球炼厂计划在明年第二季度前的停工检修量将增加340万桶/日。这相当于正常水平的两倍半，且大于目前中东和俄罗斯的炼厂开工率削减量。
Planned outages at the world’s refineries through the second quarter of next year are set to rise by 3.4 million barrels a day, analysts including Martijn Rats and Charlotte Firkins said in a note published Tuesday. That’s two and a half times the norm, and greater than the current refinery-run cuts in the Middle East and Russia, they said.
在中东战争持续近八个月、以及俄罗斯和乌克兰近期互相袭击对方能源基础设施激增的背景下，全球市场正面临燃料短缺。对于柴油等燃料——对运输、供暖和工业至关重要——出口大幅下降导致价格飙升程度比原油更为严重。
Global markets are contending with a fuel crunch following nearly eight months of war in the Middle East, as well as a recent surge in attacks by Russia and Ukraine on each other’s energy infrastructure. For fuels like diesel – vital to transport, heating and industry – a sharp drop in exports has led to more severe price spikes than for crude.
炼厂此前推迟检修以利用强劲的利润率。但分析师写道，检修工作“不能无限期推迟”。他们补充称，2027年第二季度“原本看起来就是一个检修停工较多的季度，但随着时间的推移，这一情况进一步加剧”。此外，到那时炼厂开工率“极不可能有所恢复”。
Refineries have postponed maintenance to take advantage of strong margins. But work “cannot be delayed indefinitely,” the analysts wrote. The second quarter of 2007 “already looked like a quarter with a lot of maintenance outages, but this has grown further over time,” they added. Furthermore, there’s likely to be “little recovery in refinery runs” by then.