喀麦隆在信用评级下调后遭债券投资者抛售。这位没有公开继任计划的九旬领导人让局势雪上加霜。
Cameroon is getting hammered by bond investors after a credit downgrade. Having a nonagenarian leader with no public succession plan doesn’t help.
这座西非产油国2033年到期的欧元债收益率已连续五个交易日攀升至11%以上，创下今年1月发行以来新高。喀麦隆借贷成本首次超过评级更低的邻国刚果共和国同期限债券。
Yields on the oil-producing West African nation’s 2033 eurobonds have been climbing for five days to more than 11%, the highest since the securities were issued in January. For the first time ever, Cameroon now pays more to borrow than lower-rated neighbor the Republic of Congo for similar-maturity debt.
惠誉评级周五下调喀麦隆信用评级，警告称93岁总统保罗·比亚（Paul Biya）系全球最年长统治者，缺乏明确继任人增加了其职位出现空缺时发生“无序过渡”的风险。比亚上一次公开露面是在8月22日。
Fitch Ratings downgraded Cameroon’s credit rating on Friday, warning that the lack of a clear successor to 93-year-old President Paul Biya, the world’s oldest ruler, increases the risk of a “disorderly transition” should his position become vacant. Biya has last appeared in public on August 22.
比亚领导执政党喀麦隆人民民主运动（CPDM），上周任命亲信雷米·纳马（Remy Nama）出任宪法委员会主席，该机构有权宣布总统职位空缺。按法律规定，副总统届时将接任，但比亚迄今尚未任命副总统。
Biya, who leads the ruling Cameroon People’s Democratic Party, last week named close confidant Remy Nama as head of the Constitutional Council, which has the authority to declare when the office of president is vacant. By law, the vice-president would then step into the position, but Biya has not yet appointed a vice-president.
牛津经济研究院非洲首席政治经济学家弗朗索瓦·康拉迪（Francois Conradie）表示：“关于比亚之后的权力过渡将如何进行的不确定性，使政治风险居高不下。我们的基准政治情景依然是：比亚执政近44年后一旦离世，CPDM内部人士将无法控制局势。”瑞士Aquila Asset Management AG投资组合经理曼努埃尔·蒙迪亚（Manuel Mondia）表示，虽然抛售让喀麦隆债券对投资者更具吸引力，但由此推高的借贷成本正给喀麦隆增添痛苦。
“Uncertainty about how the post-Biya transition will proceed keeps political risk elevated,” said Francois Conradie, lead political economist at Oxford Economics Africa. “Our baseline political scenario remains that it will be impossible for CPDM insiders to keep control of the situation once Biya has passed after almost 44 years in office.”While the selloff has made Cameroon’s bonds cheaper for investors, it’s adding pain for Cameroon due to the higher borrowing costs it implies, said Manuel Mondia, a portfolio manager at Aquila Asset Management AG in Switzerland.
他说，喀麦隆过去的交易价格比刚果低出2个百分点以上。“政治风险在非洲确实是一个变数。”惠誉表示，由于喀麦隆没有国际货币基金组织（IMF）项目，融资压力正在增加，迫使其更加依赖外部借贷来为预算赤字融资。该国在两只分别于2031年和2033年到期的美元计价债券上约有17亿美元未偿还债务。在降级之前，其债务表现已是本月新兴市场中最差的之一。
Cameroon used to trade more than 2 percentage points lower than the Congo, he said. “Political risk is really a wild card in Africa.”Fitch said financing pressures are growing as Cameroon has no International Monetary Fund program, forcing it to become more reliant on external borrowing to fund its budget deficit. The country has about $1.7 billion outstanding across its two dollar-denominated bonds maturing in 2031 and 2033. Its debt was already among the worst performers in emerging markets this month before the downgrade.
根据彭博汇编的数据，投资者在喀麦隆的美元债务上10月份迄今已亏损约5%，是非洲表现最差的。一项新兴市场美元债券指数上涨了0.6%。
Investors have lost about 5% on Cameroon’s dollar debt so far in October, the worst performance in Africa, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. A gauge of emerging-market dollar bonds has gained 0.6%.
比亚在该国2025年10月的大选中赢得第八个任命。他的高龄、极少公开露面以及多次前往瑞士就医，引发了对其健康状况的担忧，以及如果他在任内去世由谁接掌大权的不确定性。
Biya won an eighth term in the country’s October 2025 elections. His advanced age, infrequent public appearances and repeated trips to Switzerland for medical care have fueled concerns about his health and uncertainty over who would take power if he dies in office.
作为中非地区最大经济体，喀麦隆2025年增长了3.5%，但根据国际货币基金组织的说法，2026年前景正在走弱，该组织指出对碳氢化合物产量下降感到担忧。
Cameroon, which is the biggest economy in the central African region, grew 3.5% in 2025, but prospects are weakening for 2026, according to the IMF, which flags concern around declining hydrocarbons production.