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印度斯坦时报

政权更迭前后的经济参数:IMF数据揭示南亚经济状况Economic parameters before and after regime changes: What IMF data shows about South Asia

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南亚国家的经济指标在经历重大政治变革后显示出逐步改善的迹象,但经济尚未完全复苏,国内生产总值(GDP)增长、通胀和贸易数据反映出持续存在的挑战。根据国际货币基金组织(IMF)《2026年世界经济展望》和世界贸易组织(WTO)贸易统计编制的数据,追踪了巴基斯坦、孟加拉国、尼泊尔、斯里兰卡和马尔代夫在领导层更迭前后的经济表现。

Economic indicators in South Asian countries have shown signs of a gradual improvement following major political changes, but the economies have yet to fully recover, with GDP growth, inflation and trade figures reflecting persistent challenges. Data compiled from the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) World Economic Outlook 2026 and World Trade Organization (WTO) trade statistics tracks economic performance around leadership changes in Pakistan, Bangladesh, Nepal, Sri Lanka and the Maldives.

这些变革包括2022年4月伊姆兰·汗被罢免巴基斯坦总理职务、2024年8月谢赫·哈西娜在孟加拉国被推翻,以及尼泊尔、斯里兰卡和马尔代夫的政治过渡。

These include Imran Khan’s removal as Pakistan’s prime minister in April 2022, Sheikh Hasina’s ouster in Bangladesh in August 2024 and political transitions in Nepal, Sri Lanka and the Maldives.

虽然部分指标有所改善,但数据显示,该地区的经济复苏并不均衡。这些数字涵盖各国不同的时间段,本身并不能确立政治变革导致了观察到的经济趋势。巴基斯坦:GDP增长在2023年收缩后恢复数据显示,前总理伊姆兰·汗于2022年4月通过不信任投票被罢免后,巴基斯坦经济指标出现大幅放缓。GDP增长率从2022年的6.2%收缩至2023年的-0.2%,随后恢复至2024年的2.6%和2025年的3.2%。

While some indicators have improved, the data shows that economic recovery has been uneven across the region. The figures cover different periods for each country and do not, by themselves, establish that political changes caused the observed economic trends. Pakistan: GDP growth recovered after contracting in 2023Pakistan's economic indicators showed a sharp slowdown after former prime minister Imran Khan was removed through a no-confidence vote in April 2022. GDP growth, which stood at 6.2% in 2022, contracted to -0.2% in 2023 before recovering to 2.6% in 2024 and 3.2% in 2025, according to the data.

通胀率从2021年的8.9%升至2023年的29.2%,随后在2024年回落至23.4%。贸易数据同样显示收缩,2023年出口下降7.9%,进口下降29.2%。孟加拉国:谢赫·哈西娜被推翻后增长放缓数据显示,前总理谢赫·哈西娜于2024年8月被推翻后,孟加拉国2024年GDP增长率为4.2%,2025年为3.5%。通胀率从2024年的9.7%升至2025年的10%。

Inflation rose from 8.9% in 2021 to 29.2% in 2023, before easing to 23.4% in 2024. Trade figures also showed a contraction, with exports declining 7.9% in 2023 and imports falling 29.2%. Bangladesh: Growth slowed after Sheikh Hasina’s removalBangladesh recorded GDP growth of 4.2% in 2024 and 3.5% in 2025 following the removal of former prime minister Sheikh Hasina in August 2024. Inflation increased from 9.7% in 2024 to 10% in 2025.

然而,商品出口在2025年增长1.9%,从472.5亿美元增至481.7亿美元。尼泊尔:2025年商品出口增长尼泊尔于2025年9月经历了一次政治过渡,当时KP Sharma Oli辞职,随后Balendra Shah于2026年3月成为总理。可用数据记录显示,2025年GDP增长4.4%,通胀率为4.1%。当年商品出口增长75.6%,从13.2亿美元增至23.1亿美元。

Merchandise exports, however, registered a 1.9% increase in 2025, rising from $47.25 billion to $48.17 billion, according to the figures. Nepal: Merchandise exports rose in 2025Nepal saw a political transition in September 2025, when KP Sharma Oli resigned, followed by Balendra Shah becoming prime minister in March 2026. The available data records GDP growth of 4.4% and inflation of 4.1% in 2025. Merchandise exports increased 75.6% during the year, from $1.32 billion to $2.31 billion.

所提供的数据不包含更长序列的经济指标,无法对政府更迭前后的表现进行比较。斯里兰卡:深度经济收缩后重返增长斯里兰卡在2022年经历了严重的经济收缩,当年7月前总统Gotabaya Rajapaksa因经济危机辞职。2022年GDP收缩7.3%,2023年收缩2%,随后2024年和2025年均增长5%。通胀率从2022年的45.2%降至2023年的17.4%和2024年的1.2%。

The figures provided do not include a longer series of economic indicators to compare performance before and after the change in government. Sri Lanka: Growth returned after a deep economic contractionSri Lanka experienced a severe economic contraction in 2022, the year former president Gotabaya Rajapaksa resigned in July amid an economic crisis. GDP contracted 7.3% in 2022 and 2% in 2023 before growing 5% in each of 2024 and 2025. Inflation, which stood at 45.2% in 2022, fell to 17.4% in 2023 and 1.2% in 2024.

数据记录2025年通胀率为-0.5%。商品出口从2022年的131.1亿美元降至2023年的119.1亿美元。Anura Kumara Dissanayake于2024年9月成为总统。马尔代夫:GDP增长波动,经常账户赤字持续Mohamed Muizzu于2023年11月成为马尔代夫总统。数据显示,2023年GDP增长5.1%,2024年放缓至3.3%,2025年回升至6.3%。该国经常账户赤字2022年为16.9%,2023年扩大至21.2%,2024年收窄至17.8%,2025年进一步收窄至6.1%。2024年商品出口下降约9%,而服务出口增长12%。数据还指出马尔代夫严重依赖服务出口。

The data records inflation at -0.5% in 2025. Merchandise exports declined from $13.11 billion in 2022 to $11.91 billion in 2023. Anura Kumara Dissanayake became president in September 2024. Maldives: GDP growth fluctuated as current account deficit persistedMohamed Muizzu became president of the Maldives in November 2023. The data shows GDP growth at 5.1% in 2023, slowing to 3.3% in 2024 before rising to 6.3% in 2025. The country’s current account deficit stood at 16.9% in 2022, widened to 21.2% in 2023, and narrowed to 17.8% in 2024 and 6.1% in 2025. Merchandise exports declined by about 9% in 2024, while services exports increased by 12%. The figures also note the Maldives’ heavy dependence on services exports.

马尔代夫还于9月偿还了印度1.5亿美元贷款,通过清偿印度国家银行(SBI)认购的最后一期国库券完成还款。尽管这座印度洋群岛国家面临严峻的经济挑战,但仍完成了这笔还款。

The Maldives also repaid a $150 million loan from India in September by clearing the final tranche of treasury bills subscribed to by the State Bank of India (SBI). The repayment came even as the Indian Ocean archipelago faces pressing economic challenges.

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