“我从没想过要挑起一场战争……我只是闭上眼睛，挥舞铁锤，”麦莉·赛勒斯在2013年几乎统治了美国各大电台的分手情歌《Wrecking Ball》中唱道。尽管这首流行歌曲在旋律上有些单调，但作为一本指导总统唐纳德·特朗普第二任期治国方略的指南，它确实值得重新流行。
“INEVER MEANT to start a war…I just closed my eyes and swung,” sings Miley Cyrus in “Wrecking Ball”, a break-up ballad that seemed to play on every American radio in 2013. Though melodically a bit relentless, the pop song deserves a revival as a guide to the second-term statecraft of President Donald Trump.
很显然，传统的外交政策理论对特朗普先生而言是个糟糕的指导。这对任何竞选下一任美国总统的人来说，既是风险，也是机遇。
It is clear that traditional foreign-policy theories are a poor guide to Mr Trump. That offers both risks and opportunities to anyone running to be America’s next president.
本报此前曾指出特朗普先生的拆迁锤倾向，但在下一届总统大选前的两年里，他这种热衷拆解的做法产生了特定的影响。它打破了“钟摆理论”——这一曾被用来预测美国外交政策的可靠工具。追溯到理查德·尼克松及其继任者吉米·卡特，大多数总统都曾（过度）纠正前任的最大缺陷。为了回应狡猾的迪克的诡谲现实政治，卡特政府带来了苦行僧式的道德说教。
This newspaper has noted Mr Trump’s wrecking-ball tendencies before, but in the two years before the next presidential election his yen for demolition has a specific impact. It has broken the “pendulum theory”, a once-reliable tool for predicting American foreign policy. Going back to Richard Nixon and his successor Jimmy Carter, most presidents have (over-)corrected for the biggest flaws of the guy who came before. In reaction to Tricky Dick’s devious realpolitik, the Carter presidency offered hairshirt moralising.
不久之后，选民们觉得美国不受尊重，于是选择了能干的里根式乐观主义。当美国人对乔治·H·W·布什这位明智但古板的政治家感到厌倦时，他们选出了感同身受的比尔·克林顿。在经历了随心所欲的乔治·W·布什之后，美国人迷上了冷静、理性的巴拉克·奥巴马，随后又对高傲的智者感到厌烦，并将国家押注在特朗普先生身上。
Before long, voters felt that America was disrespected and chose can-do Reaganite optimism. When Americans wearied of George H.W. Bush, a wise but stiff statesman, they elected feel-your-pain Bill Clinton. After shoot-from-the-hip George W. Bush, Americans fell for cool, cerebral Barack Obama, before souring on haughty brainiacs and betting the country on Mr Trump.
如今，这一理论的作用不大了，因为特朗普先生左右开击、不按常理出牌。当他霸凌乌克兰以迫使其与俄罗斯达成妥协时，他是一个强权即真理的现实主义者。在委内瑞拉，他的代理人统治会让19世纪的帝国主义者叹为观止。在中东，他一直对政权更迭不屑一顾，直到他为迫使伊朗屈服而发动了一场拙劣的战争。他宣称共产主义威胁美国，却称中国党最高领导人习近平为朋友。
Today the theory is less use, because Mr Trump swings every which way. When bullying Ukraine to settle with Russia, he is a might-makes-right realist. In Venezuela his rule-by-proxy would impress a 19th-century imperialist. In the Middle East he scorned regime change right up until his bungled war to bend Iran to his will. He declares that communism menaces America, but calls China’s party boss, Xi Jinping, his friend.
唯一的恒量是砸碎现状的冲动。这让人脑海中浮现出特朗普先生骑在拆迁锤上的画面（但愿这位80岁的老人不像赛勒斯女士的音乐录影带那样，身上除了马丁靴外别无长物）。
The one constant is an impulse to smash the status quo. Cue mental images of Mr Trump atop a demolition ball (hopefully, unlike Ms Cyrus’s music video, the 80-year-old is wearing more than Dr Martens boots).It is quite plausible that this president will be hooted from office after wrecking America’s good name (though AI dominance could create riches and clout).
这位总统在毁掉美国的好名声后被嘘下台，是完全有可能的（尽管人工智能的主导地位可能会创造财富和影响力）。渴望反其道而行之的继任者将面临丰富的选择。为了让外交政策的钟摆划过一个完整的弧线，第48任总统可以将国家利益置于个人利益之上。或者，他的继任者可以避免轻率的战争，并回避政权更迭。下一届政府可以致力于重建同盟，承诺帮助欧洲对抗俄罗斯，并协助亚洲的朋友遏制中国。所有这些选项都将与某种形式的特朗普主义决裂。
Successors wishing to do the opposite will be spoiled for choice. For the foreign-policy pendulum to swing through a full arc, the 48th president could put the national interest ahead of personal profit. Alternatively his successor could avoid reckless wars and shun regime change. The next administration could work to rebuild alliances, pledging to help Europe confront Russia and friends in Asia deter China. All these options would break with some version of Trumpism.
对于民主党人来说，选择的范围尤其广泛。无论特朗普先生的副总统J·D·万斯是横扫选场还是面临激烈的初选，共和党人都会对通过抛弃特朗普先生来激怒MAGA（让美国再次伟大）忠实拥趸保持警惕。
The range of options is especially wide for Democrats. Whether Mr Trump’s vice-president, J.D. Vance, clears the field or faces a contested primary, Republicans will be wary of angering the MAGA faithful by repudiating Mr Trump.
由于民主党人一向自我放纵，而且作为一个政党，其政治手腕出奇地糟糕，他们正以一场孤芳自赏的争论来回应这个充满机遇的时刻。华盛顿外交政策重量级人物的对话描述了两个大致的阵营，一个是温和派，另一个是进步左翼。他们一致认为，选民最关心的是国内和经济议题：各方都在高谈阔论要关注工薪家庭的柴米油盐问题。然而，每个阵营也都知道，外部世界习惯于不请自来。
Because Democrats are a self-indulgent bunch and—for a political party—surprisingly bad at politics, they are responding to this moment of opportunity with a navel-gazing argument. Conversations with foreign-policy heavy-hitters in Washington describe two broad camps, one centrist and one on the progressive left. These agree that voters care most about domestic and economic issues: there is much talk of heeding the kitchen-table concerns of working families. Yet each camp knows, too, that the outside world has a habit of intruding.
为了响应需求，民主党智库和前官员代表团已经开始会见外国政府和政治人物。本月，一个由温和派和左翼民主党人组成的此类小组访问了布鲁塞尔、伦敦和巴黎。这些特使传递出一个一致的信息：1945年后的旧秩序不会复活，而且无论谁赢得大选，特朗普主义的一些支柱——关于美国优先的言论以及对工业生产的关注——都将保留下来。
Responding to demand, delegations of Democratic thinkers and former officials have begun meeting foreign governments and politicians. One such group, involving both moderate and leftish Democrats, visited Brussels, London and Paris this month. A consistent message from these envoys is that the old post-1945 order is not coming back, and that some pillars of Trumpism—rhetoric about putting Americans first, and a focus on industrial production—will remain, whoever wins.
特朗普时期的关税政策存在分歧。民调显示，选民将其归咎于高物价。然而，温和派民主党人无法决定，是通过在上台后取消绝大部分进口税来刺激经济更好，还是将其作为对贸易伙伴施加影响的暂时手段更好。左翼则相信保护受扶持的产业（这些产业将游说维持贸易壁垒），并且喜欢关税带来的收入。
Trump-era tariffs are divisive. Polls suggest that voters blame them for high prices. Centrist Democrats cannot decide, though, whether it is better to juice the economy by scrapping most import taxes on taking office, or keep them temporarily as leverage over trade partners. The left believes in protected favoured industries (which will lobby to keep trade barriers) and likes tariff revenues.A loud group would bar from future service those Biden-era officials who worked on Israel policy, deeming them steeped in Gazan blood.
一个声音很大的群体将禁止那些曾参与以色列政策的拜登政府官员未来担任公职，认为他们双手沾满加沙人的鲜血。跨党派共识已经存在，即拒绝给予以色列毫无保留的支持。左翼的一些人甚至希望将美国撤出中东，并对乌克兰仅提供谨慎的支持。美国优先，现在和永远。
A cross-party consensus exists to deny Israel uncritical support. Some on the left would pull America out of the Middle East and offer only cautious support for Ukraine. America First, now and alwaysChina sparks sharp disputes.
中国引发了激烈的争端。温和派认为，美国正与中国进行一场争夺全球技术和世界秩序领导地位的划时代较量。知名的左翼人士则认为这种说法被夸大了，并希望在气候变化和其他全球挑战上与中国合作。有些人荒谬地想象，中国会允许其工人与美国的工人结盟，以商定全球最低工资标准。不幸的是，对于这些中国梦想家来说，他们对人工智能安全和巨型科技公司权力的日益焦虑将他们引向了另一个方向。
Centrists believe that America is in an epochal contest with China for global leadership in technology and the world order. Prominent leftists call that overblown and hope to work with China on climate change and other global challenges. Some, ludicrously, imagine China will permit its workers to ally with America’s to agree on global minimum wages. Unfortunately for such China dreamers, their growing anxiety about AI safety and the power of big tech leads in another direction.
在政治上，任何民主党人都无法在不呼吁遏制中国竞争对手的情况下，安全地呼吁放缓美国人工智能公司的发展。这将涉及对高端计算机芯片及其制造工具实施出口管制，而这将会激怒中国。
Politically no Democrat can safely call for the slowing of American AI firms without calling for their Chinese rivals to be held back, too. That would involve imposing export controls on high-end computer chips and tools to make them, which would enrage China.
在某些领域，民主党人可以在提供连续性要素的同时与特朗普先生决裂。精明的民主党人可以保留受选民喜爱的严厉边境管控，但承诺在美国国内采取不太残酷的移民执法方式，并对合法移民给予更热烈的欢迎。他提议的国防预算数额如此巨大，以至于各派民主党人都可以在不违背左翼或温和派原则的情况下减少开支。
In some fields Democrats can break with Mr Trump while offering elements of continuity. Shrewd Democrats can keep tough border controls, which voters like, but promise less cruel enforcement of immigration laws inside America and a warmer welcome for legal migrants. His proposed defence budgets are so huge that Democrats of all stripes could spend less without breaking leftish or centrist principles.
具颠覆性且无法预测的变革即将来临：关于拆迁锤，我们需要了解的是它们总是飘忽不定。
Disruptive, unknowable change is coming: the thing to know about wrecking balls is that they are erratic.