“多重危机”(polycrisis)一词大约在10年前由前欧盟委员会主席让-克洛德·容克在雅典的一场演讲中首次推广开来。
The word “polycrisis” was first popularised in a speech in Athens by Jean-Claude Juncker, the former European Commission president, around 10 years ago.
容克当时指的是欧盟面临的日益增多的挑战——从欧洲边境及内部的安全威胁,到当时严峻的难民危机,以及人们依然记忆犹新的欧元区和希腊债务危机。每一场危机似乎都在相互强化、推波助澜,加剧了乱象丛生的感觉。
Juncker was referring to the growing number of challenges facing the EU – from security threats on Europe’s borders and internally, to the then acute refugee crisis and the still-raw-in-memory eurozone and Greek debt crisis. Each one seemed to reinforce and feed off the other, compounding the sense of gathering chaos.
在他演讲几天后,英国通过投票支持脱欧,似乎印证了他最糟糕的担忧。然而,如果他认为那时就存在多重危机,那与如今这种日益恶化的负面因素大杂烩相比,简直不值一提。当前的危机远超欧洲边界,如今已波及全球。
A few days after his speech, the UK seemed to confirm his worst fears by voting for Brexit. Yet if he thought there was a polycrisis back then, it had nothing on today’s increasingly toxic cocktail of negatives. This stretches way beyond Europe’s borders and is now global in reach.
几乎在所有地方,人们都有一种局势正在崩塌的加深感,最明显的地方莫过于巴黎及其他地区的街头,而且还体现在主权债务市场中;体现在不断上升的利率和抵押贷款利率中;体现在飙升的能源成本中;体现在一个似乎失去理智、比起欧洲盟友更愿站在弗拉基米尔·普京的俄罗斯一边反对乌克兰的白宫中;体现在不断激增的贸易失衡以及中国贸易保护主义造成的猖獗去工业化中;体现在停滞或下降的实际工资中;体现在海湾地区明显升级、如今已将红海的胡塞武装牵扯在内的战争中;体现在不可持续的福利支出中;以及几乎所有国家都面临的、侵蚀社会活力的生活成本危机……我可以继续列举下去。
Almost everywhere there is a deepening sense of things falling apart, most obviously on the streets of Paris and beyond, but also in sovereign debt markets; in rising interest and mortgage rates; in soaring energy costs; in a seemingly unhinged White House more willing to side with Vladimir Putin’s Russia over Ukraine than its European allies; in mushrooming trade imbalances and rampant deindustrialisation at the hands of Chinese mercantilism; in stagnant or falling real wages; in an apparently escalating war in the Gulf, now encompassing the Houthis on the Red Sea; in unsustainable welfare spending; and common to almost all countries, a socially sapping cost of living crisis ... I could go on.
凭借有时会伴随暴力抗议的历史,法国在某些方面是一个特例。根据国际货币基金组织最新的《财政监测报告》,税负已经高达GDP的50%以上,这使得通过进一步加税来应对不断加深的财政赤字的空间微乎其微,甚至根本没有空间。
With its history of sometimes violent protest, France is in some respects a special case. At more than 50pc of GDP – according to the International Monetary Fund’s last Fiscal Monitor – the tax burden is already incredibly high, leaving little if any scope for dealing with deepening fiscal deficits by further increasing taxes.
再者,在主要经济体中,其政治局势几乎是不稳定得独一无二。上一份预算案不得不利用具有压制性的宪法第四十九条之三(49.3)权力,在未经投票的情况下强行通过;而旨在削减开支和提高税收的下一份预算案,则无可挽回地陷入了政治僵局。
What’s more, the political situation is almost uniquely unstable among major economies. The last budget had to be rammed through without a vote, using oppressive article 49.3 constitutional powers, and the coming budget aimed at trimming spending and raising taxes is irrecoverably mired in political stalemate.
从现阶段来看,明年总统选举的选择似乎是在极右翼的玛丽娜·勒庞和极左翼让-吕克·梅朗雄之间展开,两人都致力于推翻现政府将退休年龄提高至64岁的计划。这两人对债券市场而言都将是令人厌恶的噩梦,无论哪一人当选,都将对欧盟自身的未来构成重大威胁。换句话说,法国除了遭遇其他种种危机之外,还在经历一场自由民主的危机。起稳定作用的中间阵地正在迅速消失。
The choice in next year’s presidential elections looks at this stage, such as being between the hard-Right Marine Le Pen and the hard-Left Jean-Luc Mélenchon, both of whom are committed to reversing the present government’s planned increase in the retirement age to 64. Both of them would be anathema to bond markets, and either would pose a significant threat to the future of the EU itself if elected. France is, in other words, suffering a crisis in liberal democracy on top of everything else. The stabilising centre ground is vanishing fast.
但法国危机的其他方面——特别是失控的移民问题、陷入困境的公共服务以及不断加剧的生活成本压力——实际上是所有主要发达经济体所共有的。
But other aspects of France’s crisis, in particular out-of-control immigration, failing public services and growing cost of living pressures, are common to virtually all major advanced economies.
正如我所说,这些危机大多在某种程度上相互关联,这是一场重大复合危机的决定性特征。
As I say, most of these crises are in some way linked, a defining feature of a major polycrisis.
特朗普在海湾发动战争的灾难性判断失误,通过飙升的燃油价格,加剧了生活成本的压力,并对利率施加了持续的上升压力。
Trump’s catastrophic error of judgment in starting a war in the Gulf has, through rocketing fuel prices, added to cost of living pressures and put sustained upward pressure on interest rates.
这也极有可能注定了下个月中期选举中共和党的选票。很难预料如果选民背弃他,特朗普会选择如何执政,但越来越反复无常似乎是一个合理的推测。正如《纽约时报》记者在一本近期出版的新书《政权更迭》中所详细描述的那样,特朗普白宫的混乱本质虽然已经足够令人震惊,但据广泛反映,这依然低估了世界最大经济体核心地带真正的政治失能状况。
It has also very likely doomed the Republican vote in next month’s midterms. There is no telling how Trump will choose to govern if voters turn against him, but increasingly erratically would seem a reasonable bet. The chaotic nature of Trump’s White House detailed in a recent book by reporters from The New York Times – Regime Change – though shocking enough, is widely said to be an understatement of the true state of political dysfunction at the heart of the world’s largest economy.
更高的利率反过来进一步加剧了负债累累的主要经济体所面临的财政挑战。例如在美国,债务偿还成本正逼近联邦总支出的五分之一。
Higher interest rates have in turn further compounded the fiscal challenge facing heavily indebted major economies. In the US, for instance, debt servicing costs are approaching a fifth of all federal spending.
美国是一个极端案例,但类似的压力几乎在所有地方都显而易见,它们严重侵蚀了其他形式的公共开支,并限制了各国政府应对未来冲击的能力。
The US is an extreme case, but similar pressures are apparent almost everywhere, eating deep into other forms of public spending and limiting the ability of governments to respond to future shocks.
与此同时,在应对普京的俄罗斯所构成的威胁方面,欧洲似乎只能靠自己。如果特朗普成功出卖乌克兰,那只会进一步助长普京这个杀人政权的气焰,并加剧其对正在快速分裂的欧洲构成的安全威胁。
Europe would appear to be, meanwhile, on its own in dealing with the threat posed by Putin’s Russia. If Trump succeeds in selling Ukraine down the river, it would only further embolden Putin’s murderous regime and supercharge the security threat it poses to a fast-fragmenting Europe.
局势几乎不可能看起来更危险了。特朗普似乎对欧洲的游说充耳不闻。没有什么“说客”强大到足以打破特朗普与普京之间奇特的蜜月关系。
Things could scarcely look more dangerous. Trump seems to be impervious to European lobbying. There is no “whisperer” potent enough to break Trump’s bizarre bromance with Putin.
这些安全担忧与欧洲经济经历剧烈变革和社会动荡的时期不期而遇,来自中国的竞争正在对其大片工业腹地造成毁灭性打击。根据德累斯顿伊弗研究所最近的分析,仅德国在过去六年里就失去了近50万个工业工作岗位,这主要归咎于来自中国进口商品竞争的加剧。安全威胁既是地缘政治的,也是经济的。
These security concerns coincide with a period of intense change and social upheaval in the European economy, with Chinese competition laying waste to great swathes of its industrial heartlands. Germany alone has shed close to half a million industrial jobs in the past six years, according to recent analysis by the Ifo Institute in Dresden, mostly because of increased competition from Chinese imports. The security threat is as much economic as it is geopolitical.
不过,至少我们还有人工智能热潮来维持经济运转,对吧?这可能只是一场在长期经济扩张中相对常见的中周期风暴,但即使是人工智能资本支出的军备竞赛,也显露出令人不安的势头减弱迹象,公众对数据中心建设的反对日益激烈,要求进行监管打击的呼声不断高涨,且人工智能相关债务市场出现越来越多的困境迹象。
Still, at least we have the artificial intelligence (AI) boom to help keep the economy ticking over, right? It may be no more than a mid-cycle squall of the kind that is relatively common in a prolonged economic expansion, but even the AI capex arms race shows unnerving signs of running out of steam, with increasingly fierce public opposition to data centre build-out, growing calls for a regulatory crackdown and mounting signs of distress in AI-related debt markets.
我们还在股价中看到清算的早期迹象,超大规模企业面临着巨大的压力,需要证明其投入巨资建设基础设施所带来的回报,以合理解释这些令人咋舌的投资额。
We are also seeing early signs of a reckoning in stock prices, where hyperscalers are under intense pressure to demonstrate the returns needed to justify the jaw-dropping sums being invested in enabling infrastructure.
如果美国经济当前的两大支柱——人工智能热潮和联邦赤字开支——中的任何一个出现动摇,美国经济增长将会陷入停滞。
Growth in the US economy would grind to a halt if either one of its current props – the boom in AI and federal deficit spending – were to falter.
当然,人工智能泡沫的破裂有可能通过消除信贷市场的部分竞争来在一定程度上缓解利率压力,但如果你不得不依靠一场投资热潮的结束来帮助缓解房贷利率和其他生活成本压力,那将是一种相当绝望的境地。
Of course, there is the possibility that an AI bust could provide a degree of interest rate relief by removing some of the competition in credit markets, but it is a pretty desperate state of affairs if you have to rely on an investment boom coming to an end to help ease mortgage rates and other cost of living pressures.
此外,通过给经济增长降温,这种泡沫破裂可能会使人们对财政可持续性已经普遍存在的疑虑进一步加剧。将人工智能热潮从经济增长的方程式中剔除,长期利率非但不会下降,甚至可能还会上升。
By taking the heat out of growth, moreover, such a bust might cause already widespread doubts about fiscal sustainability to further intensify. Remove the AI boom from the growth equation, and far from falling, long-term interest rates might even rise.
容克在10年前就认为正在出现一场复合型危机,但除了人工智能领域的投资支出外,自那时起,几乎所有情况都进一步恶化了。
Juncker thought there was an emerging polycrisis 10 years ago, but except for investment spending on AI, virtually everything has deteriorated further still since then.
地缘政治紧张局势加剧,主权债务规模远超以往,债务偿还成本也是如此。很大程度上属于非熟练劳工的移民潮已达到泛滥的程度,给福利和公共服务带来了更大的压力,而中国则通过向欧洲倾销欧洲生产商无法匹敌的低价受补贴进口商品,来应对自身的房地产泡沫破裂。政府应当如何应对愈发难以捉摸,而想象一个美好的结局则更是难上加难。
Geopolitical tension is up, sovereign debt is far higher and so are the costs of servicing that debt. Immigration, much of it largely unskilled, has reached epidemic proportions, putting further strain on welfare and public services, and China has responded to its own property bust by flooding Europe with subsidised imports at prices European producers cannot match. It’s ever harder to know how governments should respond, and harder still to imagine happy endings.