新加坡：总统尚达曼于周二（10月20日）表示，随着美国主导的旧世界秩序逐渐退场，地缘政治分裂的风险不断加剧，能够充当“桥梁建设者”的国家（如新加坡和瑞典）将变得日益重要。
SINGAPORE: Countries that can act as "bridge-builders", such as Singapore and Sweden, will become increasingly important as the old United States-led world order recedes and the risk of geopolitical fragmentation grows, President Tharman Shanmugaratnam said on Tuesday (Oct 20).
他警告称，世界尚未迎来稳定的多极秩序，反而可能面临日益加剧的竞争、贸易与关键物资的武器化，以及向分裂集团滑落的趋势。
He warned that the world has yet to arrive at a stable multipolar order, and could instead see growing rivalry, the weaponisation of trade and materials, and a slide towards divided blocs.
在对瑞典进行国事访问期间，尚达曼于斯德哥尔摩经济学院发表演讲时指出，这类桥梁建设者可以在贸易和投资面临风险的世界中发挥多种作用，例如将不同地区凝聚在一起，并在全球北方和全球南方之间寻找共同利益。
Delivering a lecture at the Stockholm School of Economics during his state visit to Sweden Mr Tharman said such bridge-builders can play various roles, such as bringing regions together in a world where trade and investment are at risk and finding common interests between the Global North and the Global South.
他们还可以为“更大胆、更迫切的气候行动、预防和应对大流行病建立联盟，并共同防范人工智能可能带来的最严重危害”。
They can also build coalitions for "bolder and more urgent climate action, to prevent and prepare for pandemics, and to work together to guard against the worst harms that (artificial intelligence) can bring".
此外，美中之间的桥梁建设者可以帮助维护对两国都至关重要的经济网络，并推动世界“走向一种新型的、经过改革的多边主义”。
In addition, bridge-builders between the US and China can help preserve economic networks integral to both countries and move the world "towards a new, reformed multilateralism".
尚达曼说：“我们必须致力于对现有的多边机构进行改革，但也应认识到，其中几个机构目前实行的全体协商一致决策制度——换句话说，即必须每个国家都同意我们才能前进——可能会阻碍改革的进展。”
"We have to work on reforms to the existing multilateral institutions, but recognise that progress can be held up by the current system of decisions by universal consensus in several of these institutions – in other words, where every country has to agree before we can move forward," said Mr Tharman.
尚达曼表示：“我们必须致力于改变这些决策规则和规范。但在那之前，我们必须通过与多边机构并行运作的联盟来向前迈进。”他还说，尽管美国主导的单极世界秩序已成过去，但世界尚未迎来一个多极秩序。
"We have to work on changing those decision-making rules and norms. But in the meantime, we have to move ahead through coalitions that work in parallel with the multilateral institutions." Mr Tharman said that while the US-led unipolar world order was a thing of the past, the world has not yet arrived at a multipolar order.
他补充说，世界正见证美国“从开明利己主义的信念与实践，转向对国家利益更狭隘、更急功近利的盘算”，这导致美国在亚洲、欧洲和世界各地地影响力日渐衰落。
He added that the world is seeing a shift in the US "from the belief and practice of enlightened self-interest, to a more narrow and immediate calculation of national interests", leading to the waning of US influence in Asia, Europe and around the world.
他说：“极数更多了，但全球领导力却在减弱。多极化这一简单事实并不能确保我们拥有一个国际体系。相反，我们很有可能会看到猜忌、摩擦或冲突不断增加，贸易和物资被武器化，并稳步陷入一个分裂阵营的世界。”在谈到桥梁建设者时，他以新加坡为例。新加坡“绝非中等强国”，但正积极努力促进《全面与进步跨太平洋伙伴关系协定》（CPTPP）与欧盟之间，以及东南亚国家联盟（东盟）与欧盟之间的合作。
"There are more poles, but a thinning of global leadership," he said. "The simple fact of multipolarity does not assure us of a system. If anything, we are more likely than not to see growing suspicion, friction or conflicts, weaponisation of trade and materials, and a steady grind into a world of divided blocs." On bridge-builders, he cited the example of Singapore, which is "by no means a middle power", but is working actively to improve cooperation between the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) and the European Union, as well as between the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and the EU.
尚达曼先生说，与此同时，瑞典拥有作为桥梁建设者的传统，他指出前联合国秘书长、瑞典人达格·哈马舍尔德如何在20世纪50年代苏伊士运河危机后发起了第一支联合国维和部队。
Sweden, meanwhile, has a tradition of being a bridge-builder, Mr Tharman said, pointing to how former United Nations Secretary-General Dag Hammarskjold, a Swede, initiated the first UN peacekeeping force following the Suez Crisis in the 1950s.
他说：“半个多世纪前开始，瑞典也一直在构建联盟以支持地球的健康。它与其它北欧国家一起，正积极寻求帮助非洲以支持经济发展的方式实现绿色转型。”
"Sweden has also been building coalitions to support the health of the planet, starting more than half a century ago. And together with the other Nordic countries, is actively seeking to help Africa to make a green transition in ways that supports economic development," he said.
这位总统还举例称，澳大利亚、加拿大、Ghana、日本以及整个欧盟都是桥梁建设者。
The president also cited Australia, Canada, Ghana, Japan and the EU as a whole as being bridge-builders.
没有美中两国就不可能有任何体系 尚达曼先生表示，如果没有美中两国作为世界秩序体系不可或缺的一部分，任何世界秩序体系都是不可能存在的。
NO SYSTEM POSSIBLE WITHOUT US, CHINA Mr Tharman said that no system of world order would be possible without the US and China being integral to it.
他说：“它们拥有最大的市场。它们是最大的创新源泉。它们占据了全球人工智能计算的绝大部分份额。而且，凭借其碳排放规模（就中国而言，还有其技术），它们对于应对气候变化至关重要。”
"They have the largest markets. They are the largest sources of innovation. They have an overwhelming share of global AI compute. And they are essential, by virtue of their scale of carbon emissions, and in China's case, its technologies, to tackling climate change," he said.
“鉴于美国当前的政治气氛，说出这话或许显得有些奇怪。但众所周知，美国从未一成不变。这不仅仅取决于共和党还是民主党赢得选举。变革也取决于政治实体。”这位总统表示，顶级民调持续显示，大多数美国人喜欢全球合作的想法。
"It may appear odd to say this, given the current political mood in the United States. But the US as many know, is never unchanging. It isn't just a matter of whether the Republicans or Democrats win elections. Change also depends on the body politic." The president said that top surveys have consistently shown that the majority of Americans like the idea of global cooperation.
他补充道：“我们不能指望美国重新承担其在‘美国和平’下所承担的责任，但我们也不应假定政治气氛一成不变。”尚达曼先生表示，实现稳定全球秩序的最大困难在于，世界上有两个大国不仅“在经济上相互依存，而且在竞争中接近于势均力敌”。他概述了三件有助于美中两国实现关系稳定的事情。
"We cannot expect the US to get back to the responsibilities it assumed under Pax Americana, but neither should we assume an unchanging political mood," he added, The biggest difficulty in achieving a stable global order is that the world has two major powers which are "not only interdependent economically, but are close to being peers in competition", said Mr Tharman.
首先，两国必须将相互依存和竞争视为一种需要管理的双边关系——特别是要限制物资和技术的武器化——而不是将其视为需要消除的威胁。
He outlined three things that would help the US and China achieve stability in their relationship.
他补充道：“如果我们最终导致整套人工智能和技术栈脱钩，以及其他供应链和支付系统脱钩，世界肯定会变得更加危险。这将使世界陷入更深重的危险之中。”
First, both countries have to view interdependence and competition as a relationship to be managed, especially to constrain the weaponisation of materials and technologies, rather than a threat to be eliminated.
尚达曼先生接着说，其次，必须认识到人工智能竞赛中“没有终点线”。
"It will surely be a more dangerous world if we end up with whole AI and technology stacks decoupled, and other supply chains and payment systems decoupled. It will make for a more profoundly dangerous world," he added.
他说：“我们无法断言美国或中国已经取得决定性和永久的胜利。同样，共同的威胁只会不断增加，美国、中国和我们所有人面临的威胁不仅来自失控的人工智能代理，还来自利用人工智能开发更强大网络攻击的失控人类行动者。”
Next, it has to be recognised that there is "no finishing line" in the AI race, Mr Tharman said.
“人工智能所做的事情，是极大地缩小了大型有组织的行为者与孤立的非国家行为者在开发强大新型网络、生物或化学武器能力之间的差距。没有哪个国家能够独自应对这一威胁。”尚达曼先生最后表示，美国和中国必须认识到，包括赤字在内的国内失衡具有重大的国际影响。减少这些失衡的改革不仅符合其自身国内利益，也符合世界其他地区的利益。
"There is no point at which we can say that the US or China has won decisively and permanently. Equally, the common threats will only grow, for that the US and China and all of us – the threats not just of rogue AI agents, but of rogue human actors using AI to develop more powerful cyber," he said.
总统表示：“美国不能继续拖延其为减少赤字而必须做出的艰难抉择。这些抉择将在国内产生越来越大的代价，并成为不稳定的根源。”
"And what AI has done is to reduce dramatically the gap between the ability of large, organised actors and lone, non-state actors, to develop powerful new cyber, biological or chemical weapons. No country can deal with this threat on its own." Finally, the US and China have to recognise that their domestic imbalances, including deficits, have significant international consequences, said Mr Tharman. Reforms to reduce these imbalances are in the own domestic interests, as well of that of the rest of the world.
“中国也必须认识到，要继续成为世界商品的大规模供应源，它就必须比目前成为更大规模的需求源。”
"The US cannot keep deferring the tough choices it has to make to reduce its deficits. They will exert a growing cost domestically, and be a source of instability," the president said.
“中国的改革正在进行中，但提高消费需要时间。在此期间，对中国出口进行临时管理——例如其最近与欧盟就混合动力汽车达成的协议——以及将平衡从出口转向海外市场的外国直接投资，都发挥着有益的作用。”全新的、注入新活力的国内社会契约是关键尚达曼先生在总结其演讲时表示，世界若没有国内“全新且注入新活力的社会契约”，就无法达成合作性的国际秩序。
"China, too, has to recognise that to continue to be a large source of supply of goods to the world, it will have to be a larger source of demand than it is currently.
他说：“许多国家的社会契约，特别是发达世界的社会契约，已经精疲力竭。40、50年前让人兴奋的想法，如今已不再令人兴奋。在我看来，要修复和重振它，我们既要向后看，也要向前看。”
"Reforms within China are underway, but it will need time to raise consumption. In the meantime, temporary management of China's exports, such as in its recent agreement with the EU on hybrid vehicles, and a shift in balance from exports to foreign direct investment in markets abroad, have useful roles to play." NEW, INVIGORATED DOMESTIC SOCIAL COMPACTS KEY Wrapping up his lecture, Mr Tharman said that the world cannot reach a cooperative international order without "new and invigorated social compacts" domestically.
他说，早期的社会民主主义“从根本上说，不是关于向个人重新分配福利，而是关于投资于公共利益”，例如学校、卫生系统、交通系统以及造福所有人的其他公共设施。
"The social compact in many countries, particularly in the advanced world, is exhausted," he said. "Ideas which excited people 40, 50 years ago no longer excite today. And to repair and reinvigorate, it seems to me we have to go backwards as well as forwards." Social democracy in its early days was "not fundamentally about the redistribution of benefits to individuals, but about investing in the public good", such as schools, health systems, transport systems and other amenities that benefit everyone, he said.
“一些再分配是必要的，而且现在仍然是必要的，因为必须缓解不平等。但投资于高质量的公共服务本身就是一种进步的行为，因为从中受益最多的是穷人和中产阶级。它具有一种振奋人心的基调和效果，”尚达曼先生说。
"Some redistribution was necessary, and is still necessary because inequality has to be mitigated. But investing in high-quality public services was itself a progressive act, because the people who benefit most from it are the poor and the middle class. It had an uplifting tone and effect," said Mr Tharman.
“但我们也必须向前迈进。一个充满快速技术变革和全球相互依存的世界的现实是，尽管整个社会已经走向繁荣，但仍会有一些群体失利。”因此，民主国家必须及早采取行动，支持失利的社群。
"But we also have to go forward. And the reality of a world of rapid technological change and global interdependence is that whilst societies have prospered as a whole, there will be groups of people who lose out." As such, democracies have to act early to support communities that lose out.
尚达曼先生表示，虽然一个国家作为一个整体可能表现良好，但那些工作和社区被取代的人所感受到的损失是真实存在的，而且往往对政治体产生比大多数人所享有的广泛分散的利益更大的影响。
While a nation may be doing well as a whole, the perceived losses of those whose jobs and communities have been displaced are real, and often have a greater impact on the body politic than the widely dispersed benefits enjoyed by the majority, Mr Tharman said.
“市场无法迅速解决这些问题，而且往往根本无法解决。政府的任务是不能让此类问题恶化，并进行干预以帮助那些流离失所的人，”他说。
"Markets do not relieve these problems quickly, and often not at all. The task of government is to not let such problems fester, and to intervene to help those displaced," he said.
“因此，诸如（国内生产总值）、整体收入增长或整体失业率等总体指标并不是经济生活中唯一重要的事情，在政治中尤其如此。”
"So, aggregates like (gross domestic product), overall income growth or overall unemployment rates are not all that matter in economic life, and especially not in politics.
“损失至关重要，即便大多数人有所收获。当我们迈入人工智能时代时，我们必须不惜一切代价避免出现K型经济和社会。”
"Losses matter, even if most people gain. We must avoid at all costs a K-shaped economy and society as we move into an AI era."