
从俄罗斯飞往美国的最短航线会让敌方轰炸机飞越北极,穿越加拿大领空。冷战期间,这一简单事实促成了北美航空航天防御司令部(NORAD)的成立,该司令部在两国建立了一个一体化雷达网络,实际上将北美领空视为单一防御区。
The shortest flight path from Russia to the United States would take an enemy bomber over the North Pole and across Canadian airspace. During the Cold War, that simple fact was the impetus for the creation of the North American Aerospace Defense Command, or NORAD, which forged an integrated radar network across the two countries, effectively treating North American airspace as a single defensive zone.
如今,人们对俄罗斯弹道导弹袭击美国本土的担忧减少了,但北美防空司令部依然具有现实意义。俄罗斯轰炸机仍在阿拉斯加和加拿大北极附近飞行。中国不断扩大的核武库构成了自身的威胁。其他空中物体也需要保持警惕,2023年一架中国间谍气球神秘的飞行路线凸显了这一教训,北美防空司令部将其击落。这本该引起特朗普总统的重视,他已将西半球确定为安全优先事项。
Today, there’s less concern about a Russian barrage landing on U.S. soil, but NORAD remains relevant. Russian bombers still fly near Alaska and the Canadian Arctic. China’s expanding nuclear arsenal poses its own threat. Other airborne objects require vigilance, a lesson underscored by the mysterious flight path, in 2023, of a Chinese spy balloon, which NORAD shot down. This should matter to President Trump, who has identified the Western Hemisphere as a security priority.
他甚至为自己的做法起了个名字:“门罗主义2.0”(Donroe Doctrine)。但作为世界上唯一的双国军事指挥机构、总部设在科罗拉多斯普林斯彼得森太空军基地的北美防空司令部,情况并不乐观。北美防空司令部成立于1958年,如今展示了总统对美国盟友的蔑视如何危及数十年来维护美国安全的军事合作。
He even has a name for his approach: the “Donroe Doctrine.”But all is not well at NORAD, the world’s only binational military command, headquartered at the Peterson Space Force Base in Colorado Springs. NORAD, which was founded in 1958, now demonstrates how the president’s disdain for U.S. allies risks undermining the military cooperation that has kept the United States safe for decades.
在北美防空司令部(NORAD)及美国其他一体化作战司令部任职,过去是加拿大有志军官梦寐以求的“肥缺”,让他们有机会在情报、防空反导和联合行动等领域与美方同行协调配合。这种情况正在改变。美加官员透露,加拿大近来难以找到愿意接任这些职位的高级军官,问题严重到加拿大军官已向科罗拉多斯普林斯、渥太华和华盛顿的同行表达了担忧。
Positions at NORAD and other integrated combatant commands in the United States used to be plum posts for ambitious Canadian military officers, giving them a chance to coordinate with Americans on intelligence, air and missile defense, and joint operations. That’s changing. U.S. and Canadian officials told me that Canada has lately struggled to find senior officers willing to take the jobs, a problem acute enough that Canadian officers have shared their concerns with counterparts in Colorado Springs, Ottawa, and Washington.
据现任和前任官员透露,原因主要有三点,他们因话题敏感而要求匿名。尽管美军的影响力和专业度一度让这些职位极具吸引力,但一些军官如今担心,如果美加关系进一步失控,在美国任职的经历可能会损害他们未来的晋升前景。他们还认为,因政治张力导致其职权获取受限,此类任职的回报在递减。此外,他们还面临家庭阻力,家属担心特朗普煽动的反加情绪会让美国变得寸步难行,哪怕只是暂时的。
The reasons are threefold, according to current and former officials who described the dynamic to me on the condition of anonymity in order to address a sensitive subject. Although the influence and sophistication of the U.S. military once made the postings desirable to ambitious officers, some now fear that time in the United States might hurt their chances for future promotions if relations spiral further out of control. They also see diminishing returns from a posting in which they’re likely to have their access curtailed as a byproduct of political tensions. And they face resistance from their families, who worry that anti-Canadian sentiment whipped up by Trump might make the country inhospitable, even temporarily.
据多名接受采访的加拿大军官称,考虑赴美任职的加拿大军官不认为自己会受到平等对待。虽然特朗普政府对许多盟友施压威胁,但这些军官感受到针对加拿大的敌意格外强烈——部分源于贸易争端的激烈程度,部分源于总理马克·卡尼曾有时表现出对抗特朗普的姿态。“如果你是加拿大的一名中将(两星上将),职业生涯可能只剩一两个极其关键的职位,你会用其中一个去美国任职吗?在那里你可能人浮于事,职权受限,拿不出什么实质性工作成果。”一名加拿大军官反问。
Canadian officers considering U.S.-based posts don’t believe that they’ll be treated as equals, according to several who spoke with me. While the Trump administration has bullied and threatened numerous allies, these officers perceive particular hostility toward Canada—in part because of the vehemence of the trade dispute, and in part because Prime Minister Mark Carney has been willing, at times, to stand up to Trump. “If you’re a two-star general in Canada, and you’ve got maybe one or two extremely important jobs left in your career, will you use one of them to take up a position in the States, where you might be underemployed, with little access and little meaningful work to show for it?” one Canadian officer asked.
我采访的部分官员指出,紧张关系尚未导致战术层面的崩溃——没有人从雷达屏或红外摄像机前移开视线。这也是北美防空司令部(NORAD)发言人回应我提问时强调的内容,其发表声明称,该双国司令部的高级加拿大职位“依然人员配备充足,并被高度视为有利于职业发展的机会,加拿大人员及其家属完全融入其中,并拥有执行双国国土防御行动所需的系统性访问权限”。
Some of the officials I spoke with noted that strained relations had not yet caused a tactical breakdown—no one had taken their eye off radar scopes or infrared cameras. And that’s what a NORAD spokesperson emphasized in response to my questions, issuing a statement saying that high-level Canadian roles at the binational command “remain fully staffed and highly regarded as career-enhancing opportunities, with Canadian personnel and their families fully integrated and operating with the systemic access required to execute binational defense operations for the homelands.”
加拿大人不愿赴美任职的真实影响,或许只有在危机时刻才会显现。除了执行基本的国家安全职能外,北美防空司令部还增进了两国军队各级人员之间的战友情谊。如果美军未来需要向北投送兵力,包括调动人员穿越加拿大,这一点至关重要。我采访的数人提出了与中国发生冲突的前景,这将迅速威胁到阿拉斯加这一关键战略枢纽。
The true impact of Canadian reluctance to serve in the United States may become manifest only in a crisis. In addition to the essential national-security functions performed by NORAD, the command also fosters camaraderie between the ranks of the two militaries. That’s vital if the U.S. military should ever need to project force to the north, including by moving personnel across Canada. Several of the people I spoke with raised the prospect of a conflict with China, which would quickly threaten Alaska, a crucial strategic hub.
向这个非邻接州调动美军将依赖加拿大的配合。在这种情况下,华盛顿会希望由曾在美服役的加拿大指挥官来合作,这样美军军官就不必建立新的伙伴关系,而是可以依赖他们认识多年的老熟人。因两国摩擦而拒绝赴美任职的加拿大将军,届时不太可能表现出同情。
Moving U.S. forces to the noncontiguous state would depend on Canadian cooperation. In such a situation, Washington would want Canadian commanders who have served in the United States, so that American officers aren’t building new partnerships but are depending on people they’ve known for years. Canadian generals who’ve passed on postings in the United States because of friction between the two countries are much less likely to be sympathetic.
自去年重新掌权以来,特朗普疏远了长期盟友,却对朝鲜等流氓国家赞誉有加。他称德国是“一个破碎的国家”,还说法国总统埃马纽埃尔·马克龙“总是判断错误”。他把欧洲领导人作为一个整体冠以“软弱”的称号。他对这些国家征收了高额关税,并质疑美国对北约宪章第五条的忠诚——即对一个成员国的攻击就是对所有成员国的攻击——从而威胁到西方安全的一块基石。
Since he returned to power last year, Trump has alienated longtime allies while praising rogue states such as North Korea. He has called Germany a “broken country” and said that French President Emmanuel Macron “always gets it wrong.”As a group, European leaders earned the epithet “weak.”He has imposed steep tariffs on their countries and threatened a foundation of Western security by raising doubts about U.S. fidelity to Article 5 of the NATO charter—that an attack on one is an attack on all.
尽管如此,当我与多个盟国的高级军官交谈时——甚至包括丹麦,该国武装部队今年早些时候曾为美国可能入侵格陵兰做准备——他们坚持认为,尽管存在政治分歧,军方之间的合作仍在继续。加拿大可能是第一个出现裂痕的地方。“日常关系已经恶化,”驻渥太华的国防分析师戴维·佩里告诉我。“两国在防务和安全方面的互动方式已经发生了明显变化。”
Still, when I speak with senior officers in various allied countries—even Denmark, where the armed forces prepared for a possible U.S. invasion of Greenland, earlier this year—they maintain that military-to-military cooperation continues despite political disagreements. Canada may be the first place where that is cracking. “The day-to-day relationship has deteriorated,” David Perry, an Ottawa-based defense analyst, told me. “There’s been a tangible change in the way the two countries interact on defense and security.”
华盛顿如今选择疏远其北方邻国,这颇具讽刺意味,因为加拿大和其他北约成员国一样,正在投资于那种将使其成为更有用盟友的硬实力。今年2月,当我见到加拿大国防部长戴维·麦金蒂时,政府刚刚发布了其首份国防工业战略,该计划旨在更快地获得武器,并且——鉴于地缘政治的冲突——更多地从加拿大供应商处采购。
That Washington is now choosing to alienate its northern neighbor is ironic because Canada, like other NATO members, is in the process of investing in the type of hard power that will make it an even more useful ally. When I met with Canada’s defense minister, David McGuinty, in February, the government had just released its first defense–industrial strategy, a plan to get weapons faster and—given geopolitical strife—to get more of them from Canadian suppliers.
“显然会继续与美国合作,”麦金蒂说,“但现在正以更大的范围寻求多元化。”今年早些时候,加拿大政府承诺将审查是否推进洛克希德·马丁公司生产的F-35隐形战斗机的全面订单。据加拿大广播公司和加拿大电台报道,本月,由于与华盛顿的贸易和外交摩擦,政府暂停了从美国购买的“黑鹰”直升机的采购。加拿大正花费数十亿美元升级雷达、传感器和其他系统。
“Obviously continuing to work with the U.S.,” McGuinty said, “but now much more expansively looking to diversify.”Earlier this year, the Canadian government promised to review whether to move forward with a full order of F-35 stealth fighters, which are produced by Lockheed Martin. This month, the government paused its acquisition of U.S.-made Black Hawk helicopters because of trade and diplomatic friction with Washington, according to CBC News and Radio-Canada. Canada is spending billions to upgrade radars, sensors, and other systems.
其参与特朗普提议的“金穹”计划将扩展并加强防御盾牌,有可能保护两国。但很难对来自霸凌者的保护寄予太多信任。“信任容易失去,却难以建立,”约翰斯·霍普金斯大学高级国际研究学院美国-加拿大研究中心主任克里斯托弗·桑兹告诉我。
Its participation in Trump’s proposed “Golden Dome” would extend and strengthen the defensive shield, with the potential to protect both countries. But it’s hard to put much faith in protection from a bully. “Trust is easy to lose and hard to build,” Christopher Sands, the director of the Center for U.S.-Canada Studies at Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies, told me.
如今的敌意与过去的贸易争端截然不同,以往的争端往往充满火药味——“就像一场法庭剧,”桑兹说。但争斗曾经远离公众视线,由低调的外交官们处理。现在公众成了观众,无法将目光从总统的种种举动上移开,这些举动已经“毒化了人民与人民之间的关系”。军队也不可能永远置身事外。
The current rancor is entirely different from past trade disputes, which have often been combative—“like a courtroom drama,” Sands said. But the fighting once stayed out of public view, managed by low-profile diplomats. Now the public is in the audience and can’t look away from the president’s antics, which have “poisoned people-to-people relations.”The armed forces couldn’t remain immune forever.
2025年1月,特朗普重返白宫第一天下达的行政命令让加拿大军官们怀疑,美军是否可能被用来对付他们。该命令将美国北方司令部——与北美防空司令部共用科罗拉多州的总部——指派执行“封锁边境、维护美国的主权、领土完整和安全”的任务。命令没有具体说明是南部边境,随着关系日益恶化,驻科罗拉多的加拿大官员不禁问他们的美国同行:你们是打算将北部边境军事化吗?那可是世界上最长的未设防的和平边界之一。美国官员试图向他们保证,任何行动都将是合作性的。
An executive order on Trump’s first day back in office, in January 2025, made Canadian officers wonder whether the U.S. military might be used against them. The order assigned U.S. Northern Command, which shares NORAD’s Colorado headquarters, to the mission to “seal the borders and maintain the sovereignty, territorial integrity, and security of the United States.”It did not specify the southern border, causing Canadian officials in Colorado to ask their counterparts, as relations worsened over time: Are you planning to militarize the northern border, one of the world’s longest undefended and peaceful frontiers? U.S. officials tried to reassure them that any action would be cooperative.
但合作的保证变得难以维持。2025年2月,特朗普在为对加拿大新征关税辩护时在社交媒体上写道,没有美国的支持,“加拿大作为一个可行国家将不复存在”。“因此,加拿大应该成为我们珍爱的第51个州。”起初,在北美防空司令部的员工会议上,提到加拿大成为美国一个州的说法还会引来笑声。但气氛很快变了。4月,特朗普驳斥了有关他吞并言论只是虚张声势的说法。“我真的不是在开玩笑,”他在接受《时代》杂志采访时说。
But the guarantee of cooperation became difficult to sustain. Defending new tariffs imposed on Canada in February 2025, Trump wrote on social media that “Canada ceases to exist as a viable Country” without U.S. support. “Therefore, Canada should become our Cherished 51st State.”Early on, references to Canadian statehood had elicited laughs during staff meetings at NORAD. But the mood soon changed. In April, Trump rebuffed the suggestion that his talk of annexation was just bluster. “I’m really not trolling,” he said in an interview with Time.
到年底,在这个双边指挥部里,关于“第51个州”的玩笑换来的只有沉默或简短的驳斥。态度已经发生了巨大转变。安格斯·里德研究所的一项民调发现,近半数加拿大人表示,他们的政府应将美国视为“敌人”或“潜在威胁”,而只有27%的人称华盛顿是朋友和盟友。在美国服役的加拿大军官向同僚透露,他们的家人不愿在假期前来探望,因为他们害怕过境或在美国社区遭遇敌意。
By the end of the year, jokes within the binational command about the 51st state were met with silence or curt rebuttals. Attitudes had shifted dramatically. An Angus Reid Institute poll found that almost half of Canadians said that their government should view the United States as an “enemy” or “potential threat,” while only 27 percent called Washington a friend and ally. Canadian officers serving in the United States divulged to colleagues that their families didn’t want to visit them over the holidays, because they were afraid of crossing the border or encountering animosity in American communities.
除了科罗拉多斯普林斯的联合指挥部外,加拿大将军还曾担任驻北卡罗来纳州、得克萨斯州和华盛顿州的美国陆军军的副指挥官。
In addition to the joint command in Colorado Springs, Canadian generals have served as deputy commanders of U.S. Army corps in North Carolina, Texas, and Washington State.
2026年初,卡尼点明了特朗普对美国的盟友怀有敌意所引发的态势。“我们正处于一场断裂之中,”他说,并呼吁世界上的中等强国联合起来,抵制霸凌,捍卫国际机构。(后来在接受《纽约时报》采访时,卡尼表示,如果不考虑特朗普可能对加拿大动用武力的可能性,那将是“不负责任的”。)总统的侮辱性言论或许可以被视为一种修辞上的佯攻——一种要求更有利的贸易条件或迫使对方增加军费开支的手段——但对加拿大的蔑视得到了五角大楼高层领导人的呼应。
In early 2026, Carney named the dynamic generated by Trump’s hostility to American allies. “We are in the midst of a rupture,” he said, calling on the world’s middle powers to band together to resist bullying and defend international institutions. (Later, in an interview with The New York Times, Carney said that it would have been “irresponsible” not to take into consideration the possibility that Trump might use force against Canada.) The president’s insults might have been dismissed as a rhetorical feint—a way to demand better trading terms or shake loose more military spending—but the scorn for Canada was echoed by senior Pentagon leaders.
5月,负责政策的国防部副部长埃尔布里奇·科尔比利用社交媒体抱怨加拿大的军事战备状况,并宣布特朗普政府暂停参与常设联合防务委员会——一个负责协调安全政策的双边咨询机构。“一个优先考虑硬实力而非言辞的强大加拿大对我们所有人都有利,”科尔比写道。“不幸的是,加拿大未能在其防务承诺上取得可信的进展。”
In May, Elbridge Colby, the undersecretary of defense for policy, used social media to complain about Canada’s military readiness and announce that the Trump administration was pausing its participation in the Permanent Joint Board on Defense, a bilateral advisory body to coordinate security policy. “A strong Canada that prioritizes hard power over rhetoric benefits us all,” Colby wrote. “Unfortunately, Canada has failed to make credible progress on its defense commitments.”
该委员会自2024年以来一直未召开会议,因此这一举动主要是象征性的。但科尔比尖刻的评论在北美防空司令部内部引发了不安的疑问:这家伙是谁,他有多大权力?
The board hadn’t met since 2024, so the move was mostly symbolic. But Colby’s withering review prompted nervous questions inside NORAD: Who is this guy, and how much power does he have?
国防部长皮特·赫格塞思的做法则更加不加掩饰。今年8月,他发布了一张两名加拿大年轻女学员的照片。她们的外表似乎并未给他留下好印象;他在配文中写道“这才是真实的”。这篇帖子因其粗俗和不专业而令加拿大人震惊。2021年至2024年担任加拿大国防参谋长一职的韦恩·艾尔告诉我,他认为赫格塞思的这番介入“极具侮辱性”。
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s approach was even less subtle. In August, he posted a photo of two young female Canadian cadets. Their physical appearance seemed not to impress him; he captioned the photo “this is real.”The post stunned Canadians for its crassness and unprofessionalism. Wayne Eyre, who served as chief of Canada’s defense staff from 2021 to 2024, told me that he found Hegseth’s intervention “highly insulting.”
紧接着,次月,特朗普在其“真相社交”账号上传播了一张卡通图片,画面中他用冰球杆殴打卡尼——“这是美国总统难以想象的举动,即便在我们最荒诞的想象中也是如此,”一位加拿大官员这样对我说。北美防空司令部的美军领导人试图强作镇定,向来访者汇报称双边合作仍在不受阻碍地继续。但现任和前任官员告诉我,在聚光灯之外,加拿大军官会承认这种紧张关系。
It was followed, the next month, by a cartoon image that Trump circulated on his Truth Social feed of him beating Carney with a hockey stick—“unimaginable conduct by the president of the United States, even in our most dystopian imagination,” as one Canadian official put it to me. U.S. military leaders at NORAD have tried to put on a brave face, reporting to visitors that binational cooperation is continuing unimpeded. But away from the spotlight, Canadian officers will acknowledge the strain, current and former officials told me.
艾尔警告说,他曾协助监管的那种合作比表面上看起来更加脆弱。“看到这种深厚的关系受到攻击,令人悲伤、失望和不安,”他说。“在我看来,这是美国在自我伤害——抛弃并质疑自身的竞争优势,也就是这套联盟体系。”公众对北美防空司令部的了解大多来自其“圣诞老人追踪器”,那是一个在平安夜轻松模拟圣诞老人环游世界的活动。这是因为该司令部的真正职责——守卫天空——基本上是无形的。也就是说,直到它停止运转为止。
Eyre warned that cooperation of the kind that he helped oversee is more vulnerable than it might appear. “It’s sad, disappointing, and disturbing to see that deep relationship come under attack,” he said. “In my view, it’s a case of the U.S. undergoing self-harm by discarding and calling into question its competitive advantage, which is this system of alliances.”Most of what the public knows about NORAD comes from its Santa Tracker, a lighthearted simulation of Santa Claus’s journey around the world on Christmas Eve. That’s because the command’s real business—guarding the skies—is mostly invisible. That is, until it stops working.