纽森州长获 46% 支持率，43% 不支持率艾默生学院民调（Emerson College Polling）最新对加利福尼亚州选民的调查显示，民主党人哈维尔·贝塞拉（Xavier Becerra）在州长竞选中以 60% 对 33% 领先共和党人史蒂夫·希尔顿（Steve Hilton）27 个百分点。7% 的受访者尚未决定。在询问未决定选民倾向哪位候选人后，贝塞拉以 64% 对 36% 领先。
Gov. Newsom Holds 46% Approval, 43% Disapproval Rating A new Emerson College Polling survey of California voters finds Democrat Xavier Becerra with a 27-point lead over Republican Steve Hilton, 60% to 33%. Seven percent are undecided. After undecided voters are asked which candidate they lean toward, Becerra leads 64% to 36%.
艾默生学院民调执行主任斯宾塞·金博尔（Spencer Kimball）表示：“在 6 月的州长公开初选中获得 28% 选票、居首位的贝塞拉，在州长竞选中领先希尔顿，领先优势超出了本次调查的误差范围。加利福尼亚州无党派选民以 46% 对 36% 的 10 个百分点优势支持贝塞拉，希尔顿若想在大选中具有竞争力，需要争取更多该群体的支持。” 经济是 45% 加州选民最关心的议题，住房负担能力（17%）、医疗保健（10%）和移民（10%）位列其后。
“After receiving the plurality of votes in the open primary for Governor with 28% in June, Becerra leads Hilton in the race for Governor, outside the survey’s margin of error,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said. “California independents break for Becerra by 10 points, 46% to 36%, a group Hilton would need more support among to compete in the general election.”The economy is the top issue for 45% of California voters, along with housing affordability (17%), healthcare (10%), and immigration (10%).
当被问及谁应对加州经济现状负责时，44% 认为是特朗普总统，38% 认为是纽森州长，7% 认为是国会中的共和党多数派，8% 认为是其他人。
When asked who they think is responsible for the current state of the California economy, 44% say President Trump, 38% Governor Newsom, 7% the Republican majority in Congress, and 8% someone else.
与一年前相比，指责特朗普总统导致加州经济现状的选民比例上升了 17 个百分点，从 27% 升至 44%；指责纽森的比例下降了 13 个百分点，从 51% 降至 38%。
Compared to a year ago, the percentage of voters who blame President Trump for the state of the California economy increased 17 points, from 27% to 44%, while those who blame Newsom decreased 13 points, from 51% to 38%.
特朗普总统的支持率为 33%，63% 不支持其工作表现。加文·纽森州长的工作支持率为 46%，不支持率为 43%。12% 持中立态度。调查方法艾默生学院民调加利福尼亚州调查于 2026 年 10 月 17 日至 19 日进行。加州可能选民总样本量 n=1,000，可信度区间（类似于民调的误差范围 MOE）为 ±3.1 个百分点。数据集依据美国人口普查参数和选民档案数据，按性别、教育程度、党派登记和地区进行了加权。
President Trump holds a 33% approval rating; 63% disapprove of the job Trump is doing in office. Governor Gavin Newsom holds a 46% job approval rating, and 43% disapproval. Twelve percent are neutral. Methodology The Emerson College Polling California survey was conducted October 17-19, 2026. The overall sample of California likely voters, n=1,000, has a credibility interval, similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE), of +/- 3.1 percent. The data sets were weighted by gender, education, party registration, and region based on U.S. Census parameters and voter file data.
请务必记住，基于人口统计特征的子群体（如性别、年龄、教育程度和种族/族裔）具有更高的可信区间，因为样本量减少了。调查结果应在民调的得分范围内理解，在 95% 的置信水平下，民调结果有 1/20 的概率会落在得分范围之外。
It is important to remember that subsets based on demographics, such as gender, age, education, and race/ethnicity, carry with them higher credibility intervals, as the sample size is reduced. Survey results should be understood within the poll’s range of scores, and with a confidence interval of 95% a poll will fall outside the range of scores 1 in 20 times.
数据通过联系注册选民收集，选民名单由 Aristotle 提供，采用 MMS 短信转网页方式；基于概率的选民小组由 Consensus Strategies 提供，同样采用 MMS 短信转网页方式；额外的小组访谈由 PureSpectrum 提供。所有受访者均通过定制链接招募，以防止民调样本框架之外的人员作答。小组回复通过受访者的全名和邮政编码与 Aristotle 选民名单进行匹配。调查通过 QuestionPro 实施。
Data was collected by contacting registered voters from a voter file provided by Aristotle using MMS text-to-web, probability-based panel of voters provided by Consensus Strategies using MMS text-to-web, additional panel interviews were provided by PureSpectrum. All respondents were recruited using customized links that prevent responses from anyone outside of the poll’s sample frame. Panel responses were matched to the Aristotle voter file using respondents’ full name and ZIP code. The survey was administered using QuestionPro.
本次调查所提所有问题的准确措辞和顺序，以及完整结果、人口统计数据和交叉列表，均可在下方查阅。
All questions asked in this survey with exact wording and order, along with full results, demographics, and cross tabulations can be found below.