东京 —— 随着气候变化给全球生产带来挑战，日本对澳大利亚牛肉的依赖程度不断加深，澳大利亚牛肉占日本进口总量的比例已超过 50%，这增加了日本实现进口来源多元化的压力。
TOKYO -- Japan's reliance on Australian beef is growing, with more than 50% of imports coming from the country as climate change challenges production globally, adding pressure to diversify sourcing.
2026 年 1 月至 8 月，日本从澳大利亚进口的牛肉同比增长 9%，达到 169,743 公吨。与五年前同期相比，这一数字增长了 7%。
Japan's imports of Australian beef rose 9% on the year to 169,743 metric tons for the January-August period of 2026. This marked a 7% rise from the same period five years earlier.
尽管整体牛肉进口量因日元疲软推高价格等因素下降了 16%，但澳大利亚牛肉在日本牛肉进口中的份额仍从五年前的 41% 上升至 51%。澳大利亚将出口作为重点，其牛肉产量的 70% 以上销往海外市场。
Australia's share of Japan's beef imports grew to 51% from 41% five years earlier even as overall beef imports fell by 16% on such factors as the weak yen pushing up prices. Exports are a focus for Australia, which sends more than 70% of its beef production to overseas markets.
美国牛肉产量下降是日本增加澳大利亚牛肉进口的一个因素。主要产牛区间歇性干旱打击了牧草生长，从而抑制了产量。
A decline in U.S. beef production is one factor behind Japan's increased Australian imports. Intermittent droughts in major beef-producing regions have hit pasture growth, crimping production.
据美国农业部数据，7 月美国种牛存栏量同比下降 0.7%。8 月屠宰牛只数量同比减少 4%，为 224 万头。
Beef cow numbers in the U.S. breeding herd were down 0.7% on the year in July, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture. Cattle processed in August declined 4% on the year to 2.24 million head.
今年 1 月至 8 月，日本从美国进口的牛肉较五年前同期下滑逾 20%，降至 119,944 吨。美国牛肉供应减少、价格上涨，助推了对澳大利亚牛肉的需求。
Japan's beef imports from the U.S. from January through August slid more than 20% compared with five years ago, to 119,944 tons. The lower supply and higher prices of U.S. beef have helped raise demand for Australian imports.
中国和韩国 —— 与日本一样，牛腩在这两国也很受欢迎 —— 今夏已触及澳大利亚牛肉关税配额上限，现在将对进口征收更高关税。与此同时，日本在触及该国配额上限前仍有进口空间。一家贸易公司的消息人士称，这种情况使得无处可去的澳大利亚牛肉更容易流向日本。
China and South Korea -- where brisket is popular as in Japan -- hit tariff-rate quota limits on Australian beef this summer and will now impose higher tariffs on the imports. Meanwhile, there is still room for more exports to Japan before hitting that country's limit. The situation makes it easier for Australian beef with no other destination to go to Japan, according to a source at a trading company.
日本进口牛肉批发价格居高不下。8 月，用于常见餐厅菜肴的牛腩批发价为每公斤 1,248 日元（按当前汇率约合 7.90 美元）针对美国产，1,279 日元针对澳大利亚产。
Wholesale prices for imported beef remain high in Japan. In August, the wholesale price per kilogram for beef brisket, used in common restaurant dishes, came to 1,248 yen ($7.90 at current rates) for meat from the U.S. and 1,279 yen for meat from Australia.
与一年前相比，这些价格分别上涨了24%和18%，据农畜产业振兴机构统计。与五年前同期相比，澳大利亚牛肉的涨幅尤为显著，达到40%，而美国牛肉仅上涨10%。据日本农林水产省的食品价格调查，进口牛肉同比上涨14%。
Compared with a year earlier, these are up 24% and 18%, according to the Agriculture and Livestock Industries Corp. Since the same month five years ago, the rise for Australian beef is especially notable at 40%, against 10% for American beef. Imported beef was up 14% on the year in a food price survey by Japan's Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries.
价格上涨正在将消费者推离进口牛肉。一家东京超市今夏曾暂时将美国牛肉换为澳大利亚牛肉。负责此事的人士表示，由于澳大利亚牛肉价格也已上涨，门店在决定进货哪种进口牛肉时举棋不定。
Higher prices are pushing shoppers away from imports. A Tokyo supermarket temporarily switched out American beef for Australian beef this summer. The person behind the change said the store was having trouble deciding which imported beef to stock, because Australian prices had also risen.
澳大利亚的牛肉供应预计也将收缩。据研究机构澳大利亚肉类与畜牧业公司预测，其牛群存栏量将从2026年的3080万头下降至2028年的2970万头。屠宰加工量也预计将从2026年的峰值回落。中国和韩国对澳大利亚牛肉的关税配额将于2027年初重置，这将加剧这两国与日本争夺澳大利亚牛肉的竞争。
Australia's beef supply is expected to shrink as well. Its herd is forecast to decline to 29.7 million head in 2028 from 30.8 million head in 2026, according to research firm Meat & Livestock Australia. Processing is also expected to decline from a 2026 peak. China's and South Korea's tariff-rate quotas for Australian beef will reset at the start of 2027, intensifying competition between those countries and Japan for beef from Australia.
日本迫切需要实现进口来源多元化。9月，日本同意允许从阿根廷特定部位进口牛肉，前提是加工设施符合要求。一家肉类加工企业的代表表示，虽然日本的标准严格，但该企业对2027年产品入境抱有期待。
Japan has a crucial need to diversify its sourcing. In September, it agreed to allow imports of beef from certain parts of Argentina for processing facilities that meet requirements. A representative at a meatpacking company said that while Japan's standards are strict, the company is hopeful about products coming in 2027.
日本还在与南美贸易集团南方共同市场成员国（包括巴西）谈判经济伙伴关系协定。“从长远来看，进口牛肉来源将逐渐转向南美，”一位肉类批发商表示。
Japan is also negotiating economic partnership agreements with members of South American trade bloc Mercosur, including Brazil. "Imported-beef sources will gradually shift to South America over the long term," a meat wholesaler said.