特朗普白宫助手已开始物色替罪羊，以便在中期选举惨败时向总统交代，因为共和党在关键众议院和参议院竞选中面临严峻预测，知情人士透露。
Trump White House aides have started to cast about for a scapegoat to offer the president in the event of bad midterm election losses, as Republicans stare down brutal predictions in key House and Senate races, sources familiar with the matter say.
共和党政治操盘手私下表示，真正的责任在于特朗普，他在大选年挑起伊朗战争，导致全面物价上涨，并引发全国选民的强烈反弹，知情人士称。“显然这是总统的错，”一名操盘手告诉《内部圈子》。
Republican political operatives say privately that the real blame lies with Trump for starting the Iran war in an election year, causing higher prices across the board and prompting a nationwide voter backlash, the sources say. “Clearly it's the president's fault,” one operative tells Inner Loop.
但特朗普助手也清楚，出于显而易见的原因，他们既不能公开说，也不能在闭门会议上告诉总统，他的政策决定有过错，因为他们正考虑到不仅可能失去众议院多数席位，甚至可能失去参议院控制权。
But Trump aides also know, for obvious reasons, they cannot say publicly or tell the president behind closed doors that his own policy decisions are at fault as they contemplate losing not just the House majority, but possibly the Senate.
结果是异常早地启动了寻找替罪羊的行动，知情人士称，目光已落在副幕僚长兼政治策略师詹姆斯·布莱尔身上，他曾组织特朗普2024年竞选的投票率策略，并在此次中期选举周期再次担任该角色。
The result has been an unusually early effort to find a scapegoat, and sources say eyes have fallen on deputy chief of staff and political strategist James Blair, who organized the Trump 2024 campaign's turnout strategy and returned to the role for this midterm cycle.
布莱尔的努力包括一项针对特定州的重磅计划，旨在提前重划国会选区地图，这原本被认为——尽管不确定——能为共和党带来有利的众议院席位，前提是特朗普在2024年动员的联盟能在2026年出来支持共和党。
Blair's efforts included a marquee plan for certain states to redraw congressional maps early, which looked likely—though not certain—to yield favorable House seats for Republicans, so long as the coalition that Trump turned out in 2024 came out to support Republicans in 2026.
即使考虑到伊朗战争，这一重划选区策略本应为共和党在众议院带来约10至15个席位的净增。在弗吉尼亚州最高法院阻止民主党重划地图以在重划战中保持势均力敌后，他在X上写道：“主啊，赐我谦卑吧。”但五个月后出现了惊人的反噬，选举预测机构发现，部分重划后的选区如今反而有利于民主党。
Even accounting for the Iran war, the redistricting gambit was supposed to bring roughly 10 to 15 pickups for Republicans in the House. After Virginia's top court blocked Democrats from redrawing maps to keep pace in the redistricting battle, wrote on X: “Lord grant me humility.”But in a remarkable backfire five months later, election forecasters have found that some of the redistricted seats now favor Democrats.
例如，佛罗里达州第25国会选区（位于劳德代尔堡以南）重新划分后的地图现被定性为“民主党倾向”，形势糟糕到与众议院共和党结盟的国会领导基金已撤出该选区的资金。
The redrawn map for Florida's 25th congressional district just south of Fort Lauderdale, for instance, is now characterized as "Lean Democrat," and the outlook is so bad that the Congressional Leadership Fund, the House Republican–aligned group, has pulled money out of the race.
为共和党绘制的、深红的得克萨斯州地图突然也变得脆弱，甚至在该党有现任议员的席位上也是如此。在得克萨斯州第15国会选区，共和党候选人莫妮卡·德拉克鲁兹的竞选现被库克政治报告评为“势均力敌”。
Maps that were drawn for Republicans in ruby-red Texas are suddenly also vulnerable, even in seats where the party has incumbents. In Texas' 15th congressional district, GOP candidate Monica De La Cruz's race is now rated a "tossup" by the Cook Political Report.
布莱尔在西翼内外的盟友表示，针对他的批评极不公平，因为他无法预见伊朗战争的影响，也无法预见涉及特朗普官员的丑闻会破坏他的规划。
Blair's allies inside and outside the West Wing say the criticism directed at him is grossly unfair because he could not have foreseen the effects of the Iran war and scandals involving Trump officials undoing his planning.
布莱尔也被视为保有特朗普和白宫幕僚长苏西·怀尔斯的信任，他在过去一周内两次乘坐“空军一号”前往集会，暗示最终落在他头上的任何责备可能只是象征性的。
Blair is also viewed as retaining the confidence of Trump and the White House chief of staff Susie Wiles, and he traveled on Air Force One to two rallies within the past week, suggesting any blame that ultimately comes his way could be just symbolic.
毕竟，当布莱尔今年早些时候离开白宫、从外部运作特朗普的中期选举策略时，总统宣布此举只是暂时的，并表示布莱尔将在选举后回归。
After all, when Blair left the White House earlier this year to run Trump's midterm strategy from the outside, the president announced the move as only temporary and said that Blair would return after the election.
针对本文的报道，布莱尔在一份声明中说：“总统、我们在众参两院的合作伙伴以及我，依然专注于十一月获胜。所有共和党人都应为我们正义的事业同等付出。”
Responding to the reporting in this story, Blair said in a statement, “the President, our partners in the House and Senate, and I remain focused on winning in November. All Republicans should be spending themselves equally in our worthy cause.”
白宫发言人戴维斯·英格尔在一份声明中补充道：“这些坐而论道的专家向《连线》兜售毫无根据的揣测，根本不知道自己在说什么。特朗普总统全神贯注于在十一月保持共和党在国会的多数席位。”至于怀尔斯本人，尽管有报道称她承受着压力，但特朗普身边的消息人士坚称，如果怀尔斯在中期选举后离职，将纯粹出于她自己的意愿。
White House spokesperson Davis Ingle added in a statement: “These armchair experts peddling their baseless speculation to WIRED have no idea what they’re talking about. President Trump is laser-focused on maintaining Republican majorities in Congress this November.”As for Wiles herself, despite reporting that she has been under fire, sources inside Trump's orbit are adamant that if Wiles leaves after the midterms, it will be purely of her own volition.
特朗普助手承认，宫廷斗争中大部分的替罪羊行为是抢先发制的。一位消息人士补充说，预期低到如果共和党取得一些胜利——比如守住参议院——布莱尔将会“被视为救世主”。
Trump aides acknowledge that much of the palace intrigue scapegoating is preemptive. Expectations are so low that if Republicans take some wins—like holding on to the Senate—Blair will be “seen as a savior,” one of the sources added.
但他们也表示，在许多方面，布莱尔或许让他们把矛头指向他变得太容易了。他明确主导了众议院中期选举策略，现在可能会被那同一根绳子送上绞刑架。这是雨果·洛厄尔《内部圈子》通讯的一个版本。
But they also say that in many ways Blair has perhaps made it too easy for them to single him out. He explicitly owned the House midterm strategy, and now he may be walked to the gallows with that same rope. This is an edition of Hugo Lowell’s Inner Loop newsletter.