根据 Domain 2026 年 9 月季度房价报告的数据，澳大利亚各首府城市房价 15 年来首次、也是有记录以来第二次全面下跌。
House prices are falling across every capital city for the first time in 15 years and the second time on record, according to figures from Domain's September Quarter 2026 House Price Report.
悉尼房价跌至两年低点，9 月季度下跌 4.7%，至 166 万澳元。
House prices in Sydney are at a two-year low after falling 4.7% in the September quarter, to $1.66 million.
墨尔本房价已连续第三个季度下跌，9 月季度暴跌 3.3%，但仍勉强维持在“百万俱乐部”门槛之上，中位价为 101.4 万澳元，这是四年来最大单季跌幅。
House prices in Melbourne have fallen for the third consecutive quarter, slumping 3.3% in the September quarter, but remains in the million-dollar club, marginally, with a media price of $1.014 million after experiencing its largest quarterly house price fall in four years.
珀斯跌幅最猛，房价下跌 4.7% 创纪录新低，布里斯班和阿德莱德也录得有记录以来最大单季跌幅。
Perth recorded the sharpest drop, with house prices falling a record 4.7%, while Brisbane and Adelaide also logged their steepest quarterly house price falls on record.
Domain 首席住宅经济学家 Nicola Powell 表示：“从地理范围来看，下行趋势已扩大，且波及不同房产类型，独立屋和单元公寓价格双双下跌。”
"Geographically, the downturn has broadened, but also across property types with houses and units also falling," Domain chief residential economist Nicola Powell said.
“出售周期变长，议价空间增大，卖方不得不对价格预期更加务实。”Powell 博士称，较高利率、持续的生活成本压力以及住房投资税收政策变化正在推动价格下跌。
"Homes are taking longer to sell, there is greater scope to negotiate, and sellers are having to be more realistic about price expectations." Higher interest rates, persistent cost-of-living pressures, and changes to housing investment tax policy were driving the reductions, Dr Powell said.
“这些因素叠加在一起，真正削弱了买方尤其是买家的信心，”她说。
"What this has really layered is weak sentiment across buyers in particular," she said.
“最终我们可能会看到墨尔本以低于 100 万澳元的中位房价结束今年，”Powell 博士说。数据显示，借贷能力下降也在抑制交易。
"Ultimately we could see Melbourne close the year with the median house price below a million dollars," Dr Powell said. Reduced borrowing capacity is also stifling sales, the data suggests.
Powell 指出，虽然统计数据显示买卖双方信心减弱，但市场降温为像 Ongarello 女士这样的潜在购房者创造了多年来最好的春季购房开局。
While the statistics show weakened confidence from buyers and vendors, the diminishing market has created the best start to spring for prospective purchasers such as Ms Ongarello in years, according to Powell.
“我们正处于买方市场，许多首府城市的供应量达到了数年来的最高水平，”Powell 说。
"We are in a buyer's market and many of our capital cities have got the highest levels of supply that they've seen in a number of years," Powell said.
“对于财务状况稳健且具备交易能力的买家而言，这创造了近年来难得的机会。”鲍威尔表示，价格可能还会继续下跌数月。
"For buyers with secure finances and the capacity to transact, that creates opportunities that have been difficult to find in recent years." Prices could continue to fall for many months to come, Powell said.
“必须有所变化才能改变交易信心，而在看到降息，甚至看到降息即将到来的讨论之前，我看不出信心会发生改变，”她说。
"Something needs to shift to alter the confidence to transact, and I cannot envisage the confidence changing until we see an interest rate cut or even the discussion that interest rate reductions are on the horizon," she said.
“归根结底，这种前景要等到明年下半年。”摩根士丹利的经济学家持相同看法，预测市场将在2027年下半年触底。他们预计，从高点到低点的跌幅将深达15%。
"And ultimately that prospect is in the latter part of next year." Morgan Stanley economists agreed, predicting the market to bottom out in the second half of 2027. They expect the downturn to run as deep as 15% from peak to trough.