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阿拉伯政党或将在以色列大选中掌握关键的力量平衡How Arab parties could hold critical balance of power in Israeli election

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拿撒勒的学生们正在分发传单,鼓励阿拉伯裔以色列人在下周的大选中投票。Students in Nazareth are handing out leaflets encouraging Arab Israelis to vote in next week's election

在以色列阿拉伯人口最多的城市拿撒勒的交通高峰期,学生们正在路边分发传单,敦促驾车者参加下周即将举行的、竞争激烈的全国大选。民调显示,阿拉伯政党可能会在选举中掌握关键的权力平衡。

At rush hour in Nazareth, the largest Arab-majority city in Israel, students are handing out leaflets by the roadside urging motorists to vote in next week's closely fought, general election. Polls indicate that Arab parties could be left holding a critical balance of power.

过去,阿拉伯裔以色列人的投票率一直很低——他们约占全国人口的五分之一,且常常自认为是以色列的“巴勒斯坦公民”。然而这次选举中,人们强烈希望推翻该国历史上最右翼的执政联盟:这个联盟由资深总理本雅明·内塔尼亚胡与极右翼及极端正统派政党组成。

Disaffection has often driven down past turnout among Arab Israelis - who account for about a fifth of the population and often describe themselves as Palestinian citizens of Israel. But this election, there is a strong push to get rid of the most right-wing governing coalition in the country's history - an alliance between veteran Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and far-right and ultra-Orthodox parties.

“我们认为有责任推翻这个极端主义政府,”23岁的阿尔坎·巴德兰(Arkan Badran)说,“他们把我们当作二等公民对待。”他和其他学生们一起分发传单。“我呼吁所有年轻人投票给代表我们利益的阿拉伯政党,因为这关系到我们的未来。”大多数民意调查显示,无论是内塔尼亚胡及其盟友,还是由中右翼前军事将领加迪·艾森科特(Gadi Eisenkot)领导的主要“变革联盟”,都无法确保在议会中获得多数席位。

"I see it as our duty to bring down this extremist government. They treat us as second-class," says Arkan Badran, 23, who is with the students giving out flyers. "I call on all young men and women to vote for Arab lists, which represent us, because this is our future." Most opinion polls indicate that neither Netanyahu and his partners nor the main "Change Bloc", led by centre-right former military chief Gadi Eisenkot, has a clear path to a parliamentary majority.

除一党外,所有主要犹太政党均排除与阿拉伯政党组建联合政府。All but one of the leading Jewish parties have ruled out forming a coalition government with Arab parties

如果他们的预测成立,那么选举结束后,那些希望组建执政联盟的反内塔尼亚胡政党要么必须违背不与内塔尼亚胡合作的承诺,要么就必须与阿拉伯政党达成协议。

If they are right, after the election anti-Netanyahu parties wanting to form a governing coalition would either have to go back on pledges not to work with the prime minister or make a deal with Arab-majority lists.

一个主要的障碍是艾森科特明确表示不会与阿拉伯政党合作,理由是他们之间存在价值观上的分歧。

A major sticking point is that Eisenkot has so far ruled out forming a government with Arab parties, citing a lack of shared values.

2023年10月7日哈马斯对以色列发动的致命袭击以及随后在加沙地带的战争,彻底改变了以色列的政治和社会格局。如今,人们对阿拉伯少数民族的不信任和敌意日益加剧。

Israel's politics and society have been changed by the deadly, unprecedented Hamas-led assault on the country on 7 October 2023, and subsequent war in Gaza. There is increased mistrust of and hostility towards the country's Arab minority.

“10月7日之后,我们被当作这个国家的敌人对待,”位于拿撒勒、旨在倡导阿拉伯公民平等权利的摩萨瓦中心(Mossawa Centre)的苏哈·萨尔曼·穆萨(Suha Salman Mousa)表示,“言论自由的空间在缩小。发生了大规模逮捕,人们也因为在社交媒体上发布内容或反对加沙战争而被从工作岗位上解雇。”萨尔曼·穆萨指责部长们对以色列阿拉伯人进行“系统性歧视和煽动”。公民社会团体表示,他们不成比例地削减了针对阿拉伯社区的预算。政府则表示,削减是为了资助战时国防和安全开支。

"After October 7, we were treated as enemies of this country," says Suha Salman Mousa of the Mossawa Centre in Nazareth, which advocates for equal rights for Arab citizens. "There was shrinking space for freedom of speech. There were major arrests, there was also firing of people from their workplaces because they put something on social media or they went out against the war on Gaza." Salman Mousa accuses ministers of "systematic discrimination and incitement" against Arab Israelis. Civil society groups say they have disproportionately cut budgets for Arab communities. The government says reductions are needed to fund wartime defence and security spending.

萨勒曼·穆萨指责部长们对阿拉伯裔以色列人实行“系统性歧视和煽动”。Salman Mousa accuses ministers of "systematic discrimination and incitement" against Arab Israelis

针对在以色列医院工作的阿拉伯医生的政治化运动,以及犹太以色列人对阿拉伯公交车司机的种族动机袭击也屡屡发生。

There have also been politicised campaigns against Arab physicians working in Israeli hospitals and racially motivated attacks on Arab bus drivers by Jewish Israelis.

一些竞选活动试图通过加深社会分裂来捞取政治资本。极右翼财政部长比撒列·斯莫特里奇(Bezalel Smotrich)发誓要将阿拉伯人居住最多的北部加利利和南部内盖夫部分地区“犹太化”,并将其比作扩大被占领的约旦河西岸的定居点。

Some electioneering has sought to capitalise by deepening social divisions. The far-right Finance Minister, Bezalel Smotrich, has vowed to "Judaise" parts of the northern Galilee and southern Negev regions where most Arabs live, likening this to expanding settlements in the occupied West Bank.

多数阿拉伯以色列人是巴勒斯坦人的后代,他们在1948年建国战争期间留在了后来成为以色列的土地上,当时有数十万人被驱逐或逃离家园。以色列现任政府经常将他们定性为对国家犹太人身份的威胁。最近,总理声称其竞争对手计划与阿拉伯人联手组建一个“危险的政府”。

The majority of Arab Israelis are descendants of Palestinians who remained within what became Israel during the war that surrounded the creation of the state in 1948, when hundreds of thousands were forced from or fled their homes. Israel's current government often frames them as a threat to the state's Jewish identity. Recently, the prime minister has claimed that his rivals plan to team up with Arabs and form a "dangerous government".

为了阐明这一点,他的竞选团队设立了巨型广告牌,其中包括一个位于拿撒勒主要入口处路口的广告牌。它们暗示有一种二选一:“右翼还是巴勒斯坦”——并附上了主要反对派人物的照片,其中包括右翼人士,他们被描绘成代表后者而非前者。内塔尼亚胡的竞选团队还利用人工智能生成的视频,展示他的反对派拥抱阿拉伯领导人。

To make this point, his campaign has put up billboards, including one at a road junction at the main entrance to Nazareth. They suggest a choice between: "Right or Palestine" - with pictures of main opposition figures, including right-wingers, depicted as representing the latter not the former. The Netanyahu campaign has also used AI-generated videos to present his opponents embracing Arab leaders.

在纳萨雷一家名为“纳斯电台”的热门阿拉伯语电台,我见到了新闻主播穆罕默德·马加德利,他同时也是以色列第12频道的分析师。他的父亲拉莱布·马加德利曾在2007年至2009年间担任以色列首位穆斯林部长,代表工党。

At Radio Nas, a popular Arabic-language station in Nazareth, I meet news anchor Mohammed Magadli, who is also an analyst for Israel's Channel 12. His father, Raleb Magadli, served as Israel's first Muslim minister between 2007 and 2009, representing the Labour party.

纳斯电台主播穆罕默德·马加德利表示,本雅明·内塔尼亚胡正试图使阿拉伯政党失去合法性。Radio Nas anchor Mohammed Magadli says Benjamin Netanyahu is trying to delegitimise Arab parties

我问这位小马加德利如何看待“变革集团”领导人拒绝与阿拉伯政党联手。

I ask the younger Magadli what he makes of Change Bloc leaders refusing to join forces with Arab parties.

“用一个词说就是种族主义。但如果我们要试图解释原因,那是因为本雅明·内塔尼亚胡的政治利益,”他说。“他一直在试图剥夺阿拉伯政党的合法性——因为他们是阿拉伯人,因为他们是巴勒斯坦人。这正在影响以色列大多数犹太政党。”本周的民调显示,艾森科特的集团和内塔尼亚胡的宗教民族主义集团在以色列120个议会席位中各自可能赢得约50个席位,而阿拉伯人占多数的集团总共可能获得13或14个席位。

"In a word its racism. But if we're trying to explain why, it's because of the political interests of Benjamin Netanyahu," he says. "He's trying all the time to pull the legitimacy of the Arab parties - because they're Arab, because they're Palestinian. This is affecting the majority of the Jewish parties in Israel." Polls this week have suggested that both Eisenkot's bloc and Netanyahu's religious-nationalist bloc could each win around 50 seats of the 120 in Israel's parliament while 13 or 14 seats in total could go to Arab-majority groupings.

这些集团分别是“阿拉伯联合阵线”,由哈达什、巴拉德和塔阿尔组成的联盟,以及规模较小的“阿拉伯联合名单”,这是一个由政治家曼苏尔·阿巴斯领导的伊斯兰主义政党。

These are the Joint Arab List, a coalition of Hadash, Balad and Taal, and the smaller United Arab List, an Islamist party headed by politician Mansour Abbas.

统一阿拉伯名单领袖曼苏尔·阿巴斯希望阿拉伯政党达到“具有影响力的地位”。United Arab List leader Mansour Abbas wants Arab parties to reach a "position of influence"

虽然阿巴斯的政党最初是作为以色列伊斯兰运动的一部分而成立的——该运动拥有社会保守的价值观——但他因与犹太伙伴合作而为人所知。他优先解决阿拉伯裔以色列人的问题,较少谈论约旦河西岸和加沙地带的巴勒斯坦人。

While Abbas's party was originally created as part of the Islamic Movement in Israel - which has socially conservative values - he has become known for joining with Jewish partners. He prioritises solving the problems of Arab Israelis and speaks relatively little of Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza.

阿巴斯尝过权力的滋味。2021年,他在纳夫塔利·贝内特领导的一个短命以色列政府中担任部长——贝内特现在是艾森科特集团中的右翼成员。

Abbas has had a taste of power. In 2021, he became a minister in a previous, short-lived Israeli government led by Naftali Bennett - now a right-wing member of Eisenkot's bloc.

在这次选举中,他采取了一个令人惊讶的步骤,将名单上的第二号位置给了犹太裔前警官、中间派议员约阿夫·塞加洛维茨。阿巴斯相信,选举后艾森科特等人会更愿意与他的政党结盟,并坚持表示他想加入下届政府。

For this election, he has taken the surprise step of giving the number two position on his slate to a Jewish former police official and centrist member of parliament, Yoav Segalovitz. Abbas believes Eisenkot and others will be more open to an alliance with his party after the election and insists he wants to join the next government.

“我们得出的结论是,议会代表权已不足以服务阿拉伯社会。我们决定承担责任,成为解决我们问题的一部分,并为阿拉伯人和犹太人带来希望,”他对我说。

"We've reached the conclusion that parliamentary representation is not enough to serve Arab society. We decided to take responsibility, to become part of the solution to our problems and to offer hope to both Arabs and Jews," he tells me.

“这就是为什么我们的方法一直受到获得影响力地位的渴望所驱动,而不仅仅是代表权。”与此同时,由世俗政党组成的“联合名单”——该名单倡导以色列阿拉伯人的平等权利、结束以色列对巴勒斯坦领土的军事占领,以及通过两国方案解决巴以冲突——旨在反对派内部发挥影响力。

"That's why our approach has been driven by a desire to reach a position of influence, not merely representation." Meanwhile, the Joint List - which is made up of secular parties and advocates for equal rights for Arab Israelis, an end to Israeli military occupation of Palestinian territories, and a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict - aims to wield a position of influence within the opposition.

联合名单谈到为那些可能取代内塔尼亚胡政府的人提供选举“安全网”。The Joint List talks of providing an electoral "safety net" to those who could replace Netanyahu's government

该联盟谈到要为那些可能取代内塔尼亚胡政府的人提供选举“安全网”,以此换取对重要政策的支持。此次选举中阿拉伯裔以色列人的一个主要议题是猖獗的帮派犯罪。

It talks of providing an electoral "safety net" to those who could replace the Netanyahu government, in return for support on important policies. A main issue in this election for Arab Israelis is rampant gang crime.

9月,以色列民主研究所智库的一项民调发现,对于53.5%的阿拉伯公民来说,这是决定投票给哪个政党时最重要的因素。

In September, a poll by the Israel Democracy Institute think tank found that this was the most important factor for 53.5% of Arab citizens when deciding which party to vote for.

促进共存的犹太-阿拉伯组织“亚伯拉罕倡议”的数据显示,去年该社群内的谋杀案达到了创纪录的252起——约为被杀害的犹太裔以色列人数量的五倍。

Murders within the community reached a record high of 252 last year – about five times higher than the number of Jewish Israelis who were killed, according to the Abraham Initiatives, a Jewish-Arab organisation that promotes coexistence.

阿拉伯裔以色列人指责政府在帮派犯罪问题上不作为。Arab Israelis accuse the government of inaction on the issue of gang crime

在现在与特拉维夫连为一体的阿拉伯与犹太人混居街区雅法,齐亚德·萨穆尼向我展示了他儿子侯赛因去年11月在家附近被两名骑摩托车的枪手枪杀的地点。

In Jaffa, a mixed Arab-Jewish neighbourhood which is now joined to Tel Aviv, Ziad Samouni shows me where his son, Hussein, was shot dead by two gunmen on a motorcycle near his home last November.

他的案件尚未有人被捕。由于案件破案率低,阿拉伯裔以色列人指责政府不作为。

No arrests have been made in his case. With a low percentage of cases solved, Arab-Israelis accuse the government of inaction.

“看来他们有兴趣确保我们陷入凶手永远抓不到的境地,任由阿拉伯社会中的阿拉伯人继续自相残杀,”萨穆尼说。他现在是“以色列-巴勒斯坦和平丧亲家庭”支持团体的成员。

"It seems they're interested in making sure we reach a situation where the killer is never caught, allowing Arabs in Arab society to keep killing one another," says Samouni, who is now part of a support group, Israeli-Palestinian Bereaved Families for Peace.

以色列警方告诉BBC,其对侯赛因遇害案的调查仍在进行中,并补充称,它“以最高度的严肃性对待每一起暴力和犯罪案件”。

The Israeli police told the BBC its investigation into Hussein's murder remained active, adding that it took "every case of violence and crime with the utmost seriousness."

“作为一名失去儿子的父亲,当然,我希望这场流血冲突结束,”萨穆尼告诉我。“我希望每一位认为需要变革的阿拉伯公民都能看到,现在是去投票的时候了。”本月,以色列最高法院推翻了中央选举委员会的一项决定,该决定曾取消统一阿拉伯名单和联合名单以及其两名成员的参选资格。

"As a father who's lost a son, of course, I want this bloodshed to end," Samouni tells me. "I wish every Arab citizen who believes there needs to be a change sees that this is a time to go to vote." This month, Israel's Supreme Court overruled a decision by the Central Elections Committee to disqualify the United Arab List and the Joint List as well as two of their members.

齐亚德·萨穆尼的儿子侯赛因(左二)去年11月被枪杀,但至今无人被捕。Ziad Samouni's son Hussein (2nd L) was shot dead last November but no arrests have been made

该委员会由执政联盟主导,辩称他们违反了一项禁止否认以色列作为犹太国家存在的候选人的法律。这些政党及其代表予以强烈否认。

The committee, which is dominated by the governing coalition, argued that they broke a law banning candidates who deny the existence of Israel as a Jewish state. The parties and their representatives strongly denied it.

距离投票仅剩几天,回到拿撒勒,一些司机在车上展示着他们支持的政党的旗帜。

With just days to go before voting, back in Nazareth, some motorists display flags for their preferred party on their cars.

此次选举利害攸关:阿拉伯公民仍可能决定谁掌握以色列的权力,他们也将这次投票视为关乎自身在该国未来的关键。

The stakes are high in this election: Arab citizens could yet decide who wields power in Israel, and they also see this vote as key to their own future in the country.

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