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晨间荣耀:特朗普必须打响广播舆论战,阻止民主党的蓝潮攻势MORNING GLORY: Trump must go to war on the airwaves to stop Democrats’ blue-wave blitz

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唐纳德·特朗普总统下周是否应该发表黄金时段讲话,并公开表明目的是影响全国选举?应该。绝对应该。

Should President Donald Trump deliver a prime-time address next week with the avowed purpose of impacting the elections nationwide? Yes. Absolutely yes.

特朗普总统往往是自己政策的最佳代言人,而备受期待的“蓝色浪潮”将实际上使这些政策以及他完成与伊朗的较量、建造“金穹”和“黄金舰队”、减缓——如果不是逆转——正在进行的监管改革等计划陷入瘫痪。

President Trump is often the best proponent of his own policies, and the much-anticipated "blue wave" would effectively paralyze those policies and his plans to finish the battle with Iran, build the Golden Dome and Golden Fleet, and slow, if not reverse, the regulatory overhaul underway.

失去参议院多数席位也意味着确认任何上诉法院法官或最高法院大法官的可能性几乎为零。五角大楼的开支也将大幅下降,因为民主党人将回到其长期立场,即坚持国防开支每增加一美元,就必须有相应的一美元用于非国防国内可自由支配开支。

Loss of the Senate majority would also mean near-zero chances of confirming any appellate judges or Supreme Court justices. Spending on the Pentagon would also plummet as Democrats return to their long-standing position of insisting that every dollar of increased defense spending must be matched by one for non-defense domestic discretionary spending.

如果特朗普总统直接向选民陈述这些论点,并点名那些是关键盟友的参议员或参议院候选人,或者他认为属于极左翼的民主党提名人,这种更加聚焦的做法可能有助于动员他的基本盘,最后一次支持他的议程。

If President Trump makes these arguments directly to voters and names the names of the senators or Senate candidates who are key allies or the Democratic nominees he believes are from the far, far left, the sharpened focus could help mobilize his base to again support his agenda one last time.

这种呼吁是有先例的,而且结果好坏参半。

13 DAYS UNTIL MIDTERMS, TRUMP HEADS TO SOUTH CAROLINA AS DEMOCRATS WIDEN BATTLEGROUND MAP There are precedents for such an appeal, and they had mixed results.

2022年10月24日,拜登总统在民主党全国委员会总部为民主党人发表了直接的选前最后陈述,此时距离选举日还有15天。当年预期的“红色浪潮”最终只化为一丝涟漪。

On October 24, 2022, President Biden made a direct closing argument for Democrats at Democratic National Committee headquarters, 15 days before Election Day. The expected "red wave" that year was reduced to a ripple.

2006年10月25日,乔治·W·布什总统在中期选举前不到两周举行了全国电视转播的新闻发布会。布什总统讨论了伊拉克问题,并围绕国家安全和税收来界定选举选择。那是一场新闻发布会,不是正式的黄金时段讲话。借用布什总统自己对2006年选举结果的描述,共和党遭到了“重击”。

On October 25, 2006, President George W. Bush held a nationally televised news conference less than two weeks before the midterms. President Bush discussed Iraq and framed the election choice around national security and taxes. It was a news conference, not a formal prime-time address. The GOP got "thumped," to borrow President Bush’s own characterization of the 2006 results.

从这有限的数据中能得出什么结论?演讲可能有助于动员总统的基本盘选民。新闻发布会则不会。

The takeaway from that limited data set? A speech could work to rally a president’s base voters. A press conference won’t.

特朗普总统在全国各地的集会一直是其信息传递的反馈回路。他知道出席集会的是他的基本盘,他会尝试各种信息和主题,然后在后续集会和与媒体的交谈中放大行之有效的内容,剔除无效的部分。

President Trump’s rallies around the country have always served as a feedback loop for his messaging. He knows it’s his base that turns out, and he tries out various messages and themes, then amplifies what works and cuts what doesn’t in subsequent rallies and in his conversations with the press.

在动员基本盘方面,获取反馈尤为重要。过去一个月里,总统四处奔走,他对本轮竞选周期中什么“管用”已有清晰判断。

Getting the feedback is particularly important when it comes to turning out the base. As the president has been everywhere in the past month, he has a good idea of what "works" in this campaign cycle.

特朗普政治行动委员会甚至可能想购买电视网时段来发表讲话,或者干脆让社交媒体自行发挥作用。一段紧凑的15分钟讲话会反复播放,催生上万条帖子和短视频,而且至关重要的是,能让基本盘和独立选民聚焦于利害关系——而这次的利害关系确实非常高。

The Trump PAC may even want to buy network time for an address, or it may simply allow social media to do its thing. A tight 15 minutes would play and play, give birth to ten thousand posts and reels and, crucially, focus the base and independent voters on the stakes, which are very high indeed.

特朗普总统有一支优秀的撰稿团队,但就演讲而言,简洁并非他或他们的第二天性。如果他真的尝试这样一次直接呼吁,我希望他能以简洁方式传达的关键要点如下:总统应明确呼吁选民支持密歇根州的迈克·罗杰斯、明尼苏达州的米歇尔·塔福亚、得克萨斯州的肯·帕克斯顿和缅因州的苏珊·柯林斯。特朗普总统应指出,罗杰斯和塔福亚很可能与柯林斯参议员一样具有独立思维——柯林斯经常反对总统的政策——但他们所有人都能很好地代表各自的州。

President Trump has got a fine writing staff, but brevity is not second nature to him or them when it comes to speeches. If he does try such a direct appeal, the crucial points I hope he makes in succinct fashion are these: The president should explicitly ask voters to support Mike Rogers in Michigan, Michele Tafoya in Minnesota, Ken Paxton in Texas and Susan Collins in Maine. President Trump should note that Rogers and Tafoya are likely to be as independent-minded as Sen. Collins, who has often opposed presidential policies, but that all of them represent their states very well.

“浅蓝”或“浅红”州理应拥有代表它们的参议员,而不是代表哈马斯或其他极端立场的参议员。

States that are "light blue" or "light red" deserve senators that represent them, not Hamas or other extremist positions.

特朗普总统在结尾时应提醒所有人他接手的是怎样一个烂摊子。曾经敞开的边境如今已彻底关闭、严密把守,期盼已久的边境墙即将完工。明尼苏达州、加利福尼亚州和其他蓝州的欺诈行为正被揭露和纠正。通胀已从乔·拜登总统任内的9.1%大幅回落,但仍需进一步下降,特朗普总统及其经济团队可以在国会支持而非阻挠下做到这一点。

President Trump should close by reminding everyone of the mess he inherited. The once wide-open border is now completely closed and sealed tight, with the long-awaited wall nearing completion. Fraud in Minnesota, California and other blue states is being exposed and corrected. Inflation is way down from the 9.1% it reached under President Joe Biden but needs to go down further still, and President Trump and his economic team can get that done with support from Congress, not obstruction.

那个47年来恐吓世界的伊朗邪恶政权已奄奄一息、摇摇欲坠。其核武器计划已被摧毁,且不会允许其重建。我们在全球各地的盟友还有许多工作要做,但因为民主党提不出任何别的方案就把我们推上弹劾之路,对所有人来说都将是一场灾难。

And the evil regime in Iran that has terrorized the world for 47 years is on its last legs and wobbling. Its nuclear weapons program is obliterated and will not be allowed to be rebuilt. There is work to be done with our allies across the globe, but taking us down the impeachment road because the Democrats have no proposals to do anything else would be a disaster for everyone.

总统应当明确呼吁选民支持密歇根州的共和党人迈克·罗杰斯、明尼苏达州的米歇尔·塔福亚、得克萨斯州的肯·帕克斯顿以及缅因州的苏珊·柯林斯(见上图)。(马克·马凯拉/盖蒂图片社)The president should explicitly ask voters to support Republican Mike Rogers in Michigan, Michele Tafoya in Minnesota, Ken Paxton in Texas and Susan Collins (pictured above) in Maine. (Mark Makela/Getty Images)

“美国的黄金时代确实已经到来,”特朗普总统应当这样作结。“我需要你们的选票,这些优秀的共和党候选人也需要。请制定投票计划并前去投票。谢谢。愿上帝保佑我们各地的部队,尤其是在封锁线上以及驻在伊朗境内伊斯兰激进分子周边基地的部队,还有那些面对哈马斯、真主党和胡塞武装的部队,愿上帝保佑美国。”

"America’s Golden Age is indeed upon us," President Trump should conclude. "I need your vote, and so do these great Republican candidates. Please make a plan to vote and turn out. Thank you. God bless our troops everywhere, but especially in the blockade and at the bases around the Islamic radicals in Iran, and those confronting Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis, and God bless the United States."

休·休伊特是福克斯新闻撰稿人,也是《休·休伊特秀》的主持人,该节目于美国东部时间工作日下午3点至6点在塞勒姆广播网播出,并在塞勒姆新闻频道同步播出。休伊特通过全国400多家附属电台,以及所有能收看塞勒姆新闻频道的流媒体平台,陪伴东海岸的美国人下班回家、西海岸的美国人吃午饭。他经常做客福克斯新闻频道由布雷特·拜尔主持的新闻圆桌节目,该节目于美国东部时间工作日下午6点播出。

Hugh Hewitt is a Fox News contributor and host of "The Hugh Hewitt Show" heard weekday afternoons from 3 PM to 6 PM ET on the Salem Radio Network, and simulcast on Salem News Channel. Hugh drives Americans home on the East Coast and to lunch on the West Coast on over 400 affiliates nationwide, and on all the streaming platforms where SNC can be seen. He is a frequent guest on the Fox News Channel’s news roundtable, hosted by Bret Baier weekdays at 6pm ET.

休伊特是俄亥俄之子,毕业于哈佛学院和密歇根大学法学院,自1996年起担任查普曼大学福勒法学院法学教授,教授宪法。休伊特于1990年在洛杉矶创办了以自己名字命名的广播节目。休伊特经常出现在各大全国性新闻电视网络上,曾为PBS和MSNBC主持电视节目,为美国各大报纸撰稿,著有十几本书,并主持过二十场共和党候选人辩论,最近一次是2023年11月在迈阿密举行的共和党总统辩论,以及2015-16年选举周期内的四场共和党总统辩论。

A son of Ohio and a graduate of Harvard College and the University of Michigan Law School, Hewitt has been a Professor of Law at Chapman University’s Fowler School of Law since 1996 where he teaches Constitutional Law. Hewitt launched his eponymous radio show from Los Angeles in 1990. Hewitt has frequently appeared on every major national news television network, hosted television shows for PBS and MSNBC, written for every major American paper, has authored a dozen books and moderated a score of Republican candidate debates, most recently the November 2023 Republican presidential debate in Miami and four Republican presidential debates in the 2015-16 cycle.

休伊特的广播节目和专栏聚焦宪法、国家安全、美国政治以及克利夫兰布朗队和守护者队。在从事广播的40年里,休伊特采访过数万名嘉宾,从民主党人希拉里·克林顿和约翰·克里,到共和党总统乔治·W·布什和唐纳德·特朗普。本专栏预告今天将主导他的广播/电视节目的头条报道。

Hewitt focuses his radio show and his column on the Constitution, national security, American politics and the Cleveland Browns and Guardians. Hewitt has interviewed tens of thousands of guests from Democrats Hillary Clinton and John Kerry to Republican Presidents George W. Bush and Donald Trump over his 40 years in broadcasting. This column previews the lead story that will drive his radio/ TV show today.

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