
在印度政府颁发了一系列新许可证、放松了曾压制这一全球最大市场之一进口的限制措施后,印度的白银进口量有望在最繁忙的首饰购买季到来之际反弹。
India’s silver imports are set to rebound in time for the busiest jewelry-buying season after the government issued a raft of new permits, easing restrictions that had stifled shipments to one of the world’s biggest markets.
四位知情人士透露,贸易商和银行交易商本周获得了涵盖多达6000吨白银的配额。因未获准公开谈论此事,这些知情人士要求匿名。
Traders and bank dealers this week received quotas covering as much as 6,000 tons of silver, according to four people familiar with the matter. The permits are valid for six months, said the people, who asked not to be named because they’re not allowed to speak publicly.
贵金属咨询公司Metals Focus有限公司首席顾问哈尔沙尔·巴罗特(Harshal Barot)表示,新许可证“应该能够轻松应对任何需求激增”。他说:“因此,我们不再看到市场紧俏,在排灯节来临之前,溢价可能会大幅下降。”印度几乎所有的白银都依赖进口,该国在5月引入了新的许可要求,这是为保护外汇储备和捍卫卢比而采取的一系列措施之一。潜在的白银买家现在必须申请许可证,并且每批货物都必须附有证明原产国的证书。政府还将黄金和白银的进口税提高了一倍以上,增加了购买成本。
The new licenses “should be able to easily cover any demand spike,” said Harshal Barot, principal consultant at Metals Focus Ltd., a precious metals consultancy. “As a result, we no longer see a tight market and premiums are likely to ease substantially in the run-up to Diwali.”India, which imports almost all of its silver, introduced new licensing requirements in May, one of a number of measures taken to preserve foreign-exchange reserves and defend the rupee. Would-be silver buyers must now apply for a permit, and every shipment must be accompanied by a certificate proving the country of origin. The government also more than doubled import taxes on gold and silver, adding to the cost of buying.

因此,白银进口量最初骤降至该国需求的一小部分。据Metals Focus估计,随着有限数量的许可证获批,6月份月度进口量触及37吨的三年低点。9月份这一数字升至328吨。
As a result, silver imports initially plunged to a fraction of the country’s demand. In June, monthly shipments hit a three-year low of just 37 tons. That rose to 328 tons in September, according to an estimate by Metals Focus, as a limited number of permits were granted.
印度对贵金属的需求通常会在10月开始、并在排灯节达到顶峰的节日期间上升,今年的排灯节落在11月8日。巴罗特表示,随着最新许可证的批出,为确保获得白银而支付的溢价可能会大幅回落。
Demand for precious metals in India typically rises during the festival season that starts in October and peaks with Diwali, which this year falls on Nov. 8. With the latest permits granted, premiums paid to secure silver are likely to ease substantially, Barot said.
贵金属贸易商阿肖克全球(Ashoka Global FZCO)董事总经理莫纳尔·塔卡尔(Monal Thakkar)表示,周四印度白银溢价较全球基准价格回落至每盎司约50美分。Metals Focus的数据显示,这低于上周的约2美元。
Indian premiums dropped to around 50 cents an ounce over the global benchmark on Thursday, said Monal Thakkar, managing director of Ashoka Global FZCO, a precious metals trader. That was down from around $2 last week, data from Metals Focus shows.
去年,印度进口了7000多吨白银,这股庞大的购买热潮曾引发全球市场历史性的轧空。随着投机者蜂拥而入,价格进一步上涨——在1月触及每盎司121美元以上的纪录高位——随后在伊朗战争导致能源价格飙升并加剧全球通胀担忧后暴跌。周四现货白银交易价约为每盎司56美元。
Last year, India imported more than 7,000 tons of silver, a massive wave of buying that helped to trigger a historic short squeeze in the global market. Prices rose further as speculators piled in – hitting a record high above $121 an ounce in January – before slumping after the Iran war sent energy prices surging, stoking global inflation fears. Spot silver was trading around $56 an ounce on Thursday.
尽管在节日季来临之际需求有所回升,但预计印度今年的白银消费量与去年相比将黯然失色。巴罗特表示,零售商和批发商的备货一直低迷,今年送白银作为礼物的印度人也减少了。
Although demand has picked up ahead of the festive season, silver consumption in India is expected to pale in comparison with last year. Stocking by retailers and wholesalers has been subdued, Barot said, and fewer Indians are gifting silver this year.
他补充说:“尽管价格进行了修正,但我们并未看到任何实质性的逢低买入,因为许多投资者仍在承担去年购买白银所带来的亏损。消费者也不再像去年那样普遍抱有看涨的价格预期,这阻碍了抄底行为。”
“We have not seen any meaningful dip-buying despite the price correction, as many investors are sitting on losses from silver bought last year,” he added. “Price expectations are also no longer universally bullish among consumers like last year, which has prevented bargain-hunting.”