在革命法国被彻底击败之前，它用长达四分之一世纪的时间，让欧洲遍布泪水、灰烬和坟墓。革命伊朗在中东做了大致相同的事情，已近半个世纪。它尚未被击败。
Until it was decisively defeated, revolutionary France covered Europe with tears, ashes and graves for a quarter-century. Revolutionary Iran has done much the same in the Middle East for nearly half a century. It has yet to be defeated.
英国和美国都曾试图在不付出高昂战争代价的情况下遏制这些革命。英国几乎答应了法国的所有要求，以换取《亚眠和约》。巴拉克·奥巴马为达成伊朗核协议，也做了同样的事。这两项协议都没维持多久。
Both Britain and the United States sought to contain these revolutions without a costly war. Britain conceded nearly everything France demanded to secure the Peace of Amiens. Barack Obama did likewise to secure his Iran nuclear deal. Neither agreement lasted long.
2023年，沙特阿拉伯寻求与伊朗实现关系正常化，然而如今伊朗的代理人却在焚烧沙特的机场和石油管道。正如温斯顿·丘吉尔所言，指望喂饱鳄鱼它就不吃你，这是行不通的。这一忠告对全球经济的所有参与者都至关重要，因为全球经济仍依赖沙特石油。
In 2023 Saudi Arabia sought to normalise relations with Iran, yet today Iranian proxies are burning Saudi airports and oil pipelines. As Winston Churchill noted, it does not work to feed a crocodile enough that it will not eat you. That advice matters to all participants in a global economy that still depends on Saudi oil.
法国大革命和伊朗革命还有许多其他相似之处。两者都始于局部事件，逐渐发展到动摇整个地区，最终牵涉进当时的大国。两者都由变革性意识形态驱动，一个是世俗的，另一个则明确带有宗教色彩。
There are many other similarities between the French and Iranian revolutions. Both began as local events, grew to destabilise entire regions and ultimately involved the great power of the day. Both were driven by transformative ideologies, one secular, the other explicitly religious.
两者都是寻求地区霸权的民族主义运动，且都明确反对君主制。自1979年以来，革命伊朗一直是对阿拉伯海湾君主制持续且公然的威胁。它认为这些皇室家族非伊斯兰、非法、是美国的傀儡。阿亚图拉·鲁霍拉·霍梅尼曾明确呼吁推翻它们。在不同时期，伊朗曾支持沙特阿拉伯、巴林和科威特的什叶派穆斯林发动当地起义。
Both were nationalist movements seeking regional hegemony and both explicitly opposed monarchies. Since 1979, revolutionary Iran has been a persistent and blatant threat to the Arab Gulf monarchies. It considers their royal families un-Islamic, illegitimate, American puppets. Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini explicitly called for their overthrow. At various times Iran has supported local uprisings by Shi’a muslims in Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and Kuwait.
德黑兰还试图利用武装代理人网络包围海湾君主国。这些代理人包括黎巴嫩真主党、加沙地带哈马斯、伊拉克“人民动员组织”民兵，当然还有也门胡塞武装。所有这些团体都从事旨在破坏地区稳定、扩大伊朗影响力的恐怖活动。此外，德黑兰继续挑战沙特对麦加的控制，若以为其已放弃核野心，那将是天真。
Tehran has also sought to encircle the Gulf monarchies with a network of armed proxies. These include Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in Gaza, the Hashd al-l Shabi militias in Iraq and of course the Houthis in Yemen. All of these groups have engaged in terrorism designed to destabilise the region and expand Iranian influence. Moreover, Tehran continues to challenge Saudi control of Mecca, and it would be naïve to think it has abandoned its nuclear ambitions.
尽管伊朗对海湾君主国构成明显的长期威胁，但它们最初寻求在当前冲突中保持中立。它们禁止将本国领空和空军基地用于针对伊朗的进攻性行动。有些甚至阻止美国的空中加油、侦察甚至搜救航班。这对它们毫无益处。所有这些国家都见证了自己的城市和能源基础设施遭到伊朗及其代理人的袭击。你无法与鳄鱼谈判。
Although Iran is a clear long-term threat to the Gulf monarchies, they initially sought to remain neutral in the current conflict. They banned the use of their airspace and airbases for offensive operations against Iran. Some went so far as to block American refuelling, reconnaissance and even search and rescue flights. It did them no good. All have seen their cities and energy infrastructure attacked by Iran and its proxies. You cannot negotiate with a crocodile.
沙特阿拉伯与也门的问题由来已久。90年来，它一直面临与南方邻国的一系列边界争端、代理人战争和军事冲突。1934年《塔伊夫条约》赋予沙特阿拉伯对三个边境省份的控制权，胡塞武装至今仍视这些省份为其固有领土。
Saudi Arabia’s problems with Yemen are not new. For 90 years it has faced a series of border disputes, proxy wars and military conflicts with its southern neighbour. The 1934 Treaty of Taif granted Saudi Arabia control over three border provinces which the Houthis still regard as rightfully theirs.
1962年一次军事政变推翻了也门君主制并建立了共和国。这引发了一场残酷的内战。沙特阿拉伯支持保皇派。埃及时任总统纳赛尔派遣数千军队支持共和派，并明确表示其下一个目标是沙特君主制。美国派遣飞机保护沙特阿拉伯免受埃及轰炸机袭击。以色列暗中协助保皇派及其沙特盟友。
A 1962 military coup overthrew Yemen’s monarchy and established a republic. This triggered a brutal civil war. Saudi Arabia backed the royalists. Egypt’s then president Gamal Nasser sent thousands of troops to support the republicans and made it very clear that his next target was the Saudi monarchy. The United States sent aircraft to protect Saudi Arabia from Egyptian bombers. Israel quietly assisted the royalists and their Saudi allies.
像巴勒斯坦人一样，当伊拉克入侵科威特并威胁沙特阿拉伯时，也门支持萨达姆·侯赛因。作为回应，沙特驱逐了近百万也门客籍工人，并切断了长达十年的财政援助。
Like the Palestinians, Yemen supported Saddam Hussein when Iraq invaded Kuwait and threatened Saudi Arabia. In response the Saudis expelled nearly a million Yemeni guest workers and cut off financial aid for a decade.
2011年的“阿拉伯之春”助长了胡塞武装推翻也门共和政府、攻占首都萨那的行动。这一次，伊朗支持信奉什叶派伊斯兰教的胡塞武装，而沙特阿拉伯继续支持也门内战中获得国际承认的政府。
The 2011 Arab Spring facilitated the Houthi campaign to topple Yemen’s republican government and seize the capital in Sana’a. This time it was Iran that backed the Shi’a muslim Houthis, while Saudi Arabia continued to back the internationally recognised government in Yemen’s ongoing civil war.
伊朗，以及最近的中国，向胡塞武装提供了用于深入打击沙特领土的导弹和无人机零部件。他们袭击了石油基础设施、地区机场以及经由曼德海峡的沙特石油运输。本月，他们严重破坏了利雅得国际机场以及达曼的阿美石油公司总部。这些袭击彻底打乱了在利雅得举行的、许多世界顶级石油高管计划出席的会议。
Iran, and more recently China, have provided the Houthis with missile and drone parts used to strike deep into Saudi territory. They have targeted oil infrastructure, regional airports and Saudi oil shipments through the Bab el-Mandeb. This month they badly damaged Riyadh’s international airport as well as Aramco’s headquarters in Dhahran. These attacks totally disrupted a conference in Riyadh that many of the world’s leading oil executives had planned to attend.
沙特阿拉伯是一个富裕国家，有很多利益面临损失，但自卫能力有限。其对地区稳定的深度承诺及与西方的紧密关系，与伊朗的野心截然对立。沙特正在推行“2030愿景”，这是一个雄心勃勃的经济和社会改革计划，旨在使其对石油依赖的经济多元化并实现社会规范现代化。王国的未来取决于该项目的成败，而项目的成败又取决于国内安全和外国投资。这两者现在都受到胡塞武装的威胁。
Saudi Arabia is a wealthy nation with a lot to lose, but limited capacity to defend itself. Its deep commitment to regional stability and strong ties to the West are diametrically opposed to Iran’s ambitions. It is embarked on Vision 2030, an ambitious programme of economic and social reform intended to diversify its oil-dependent economy and modernise its social norms. The kingdom’s future depends on the success of this project which in turn depends on domestic security, and foreign investment. Both of these are now threatened by the Houthis.
自富兰克林·罗斯福以来，每一位美国总统都以某种方式为沙特阿拉伯的国防提供美国担保。奥巴马政府开始在后勤、目标情报和空中加油行动上支持沙特对抗胡塞武装。拜登政府态度摇摆。在一次注定失败的改善对伊关系努力中，拜登将胡塞武装从恐怖组织名单中移除，并取消了对沙特的部分军事援助。
Every American president since Franklin Roosevelt has in some way provided American guarantees for Saudi Arabia’s defence. The Obama administration began supporting the Saudis against the Houthis with logistics, targeting intelligence and refuelling operations. The Biden administration vacillated. In an ill-fated effort to improve relations with Iran, Biden took the Houthis off the terrorist list and cancelled some military assistance to Saudi Arabia.
当胡塞武装开始袭击以色列和红海航运时，拜登团队改变方向，将其重新列入恐怖组织名单。
When the Houthis began attacking Israel and Red Sea shipping, the Biden team reversed course and put them back on the terrorist list.
拜登随后组织了一场针对胡塞武装的多国空中行动。此前遭冷遇的沙特拒绝参与。“繁荣卫士行动”在战术上取得了成功，但在战略上却以失败告终，胡塞武装依然盘踞原地。
Biden subsequently organised a multinational air campaign against the Houthis. The recently snubbed Saudis declined to participate. Operation Prosperity Guardian was a tactical success, but a strategic failure that left the Houthis in place.
伊朗正变得日益绝望。美国的封锁已实际上终结了其石油出口。与此同时，美国海军协调的“霍尔木兹穿梭”行动结合管道输送，已在很大程度上将沙特石油出口恢复至战前水平。时间站在德黑兰的对立面，而胡塞武装如今是其为数不多的剩余底牌之一。
Iran is becoming increasingly desperate. The American blockade has effectively ended its oil exports. At the same time, the US navy has coordinated the “Hormuz Shuttle” which in combination with pipeline flows has largely restored Saudi oil exports to prewar levels. Time is not on Tehran’s side and the Houthis are now one of its few remaining cards.
出于多种原因，指望美国提供持续的空中行动或派遣地面部队以推翻胡塞武装，依然不切实际。美国国内没有公众支持再陷入一场无休止的中东冲突。美军兵力和后勤并非无限。沙特石油正源源不断进入全球市场。五角大楼清楚之前的空中行动未能驱逐胡塞武装。最后，胡塞武装已向华盛顿保证，他们不会在红海袭击美国航运。
For multiple reasons it remains unrealistic to expect that the United States will provide the sustained air campaign or boots on the ground needed to topple the Houthis. There is no public support in the United States for another open-ended Middle East conflict. American forces and logistics are not limitless. Saudi oil is getting to global markets. The Pentagon understands that previous air campaigns failed to dislodge the Houthis. And finally the Houthis have assured Washington that they will not target American shipping in the Red Sea.
因此，虽然美国仍是最终能够斩断德黑兰这条“毒蛇”头颅的唯一强权，但目前只有一个国家既有能力又有意愿帮助沙特对抗胡塞武装。以色列不仅有能力也有意愿不仅通过空袭，更至关重要的是通过地面行动，在也门正在进行的内战中组织、装备和训练反胡塞武装力量，从而摧毁胡塞武装。
Thus, while the United States remains the only power that can ultimately cut off the head of the snake in Tehran, there is only one nation that is able and willing to help the Saudis confront the Houthis today. Israel has both the ability and the willingness to destroy the Houthis not only with airstrikes, but more importantly with ground operations to organise, equip and train anti-Houthi forces in Yemen’s ongoing civil war.
沙特阿拉伯过去曾多次与以色列进行有限规模的合作。毫无疑问，沙特将继续秘密开展此类合作。沙特人可能会逐渐接受这样一个现实：德黑兰对他们构成的威胁远大于耶路撒冷。他们会考虑与以色列开展更深度的合作吗？沙特正与也门交战，而美国不会派遣地面部队或发动持续的空中打击行动。巴基斯坦和土耳其也不会。只有以色列愿意做出此类承诺，但这需要更公开的合作。
Saudi Arabia has cooperated with Israel on a limited scale many times in the past. It will no doubt continue to do so clandestinely. The Saudis may come to accept that Tehran is a far greater threat to them than Jerusalem. Could they consider more robust cooperation with Israel? The Saudis are at war with Yemen and the Americans are not coming with boots on the ground or a sustained air campaign. Neither are Pakistan or Turkey. Only Israel is willing to make such a commitment, but that would require more open cooperation.
沙特人需要自问：对巴勒斯坦的情感承诺，是否值得拿自己的繁荣与安全去冒险？王国的创始人伊本·沙特认为，没有安全就一无所有。他的观点是有道理的。
The Saudis need to ask themselves whether a sentimental commitment to Palestine is worth risking their own prosperity and security. The kingdom’s founder, Ibn Saud, believed that without security you had nothing. He had a point.
大卫·伦德尔曾任美国驻利雅得大使馆临时代办，是《愿景还是海市蜃楼：处于十字路口的沙特阿拉伯》一书的作者。
David Rundell is a former Chief of Mission at the American Embassy in Riyadh and the author of ‘Vision or Mirage, Saudi Arabia at the Crossroads’