缅因州波特兰——就在唐纳德·特朗普总统对进口钢铁征收50%关税的同一周，马克·布鲁克斯（Mark Brooks）这家为缅因州龙虾捕捞业生产金属网的公司，其国内钢材供应商突然将钢材价格提高了20%。
PORTLAND, Maine — The same week President Donald Trump imposed 50% tariffs on imported steel, the domestic supplier of the wire mesh Mark Brooks uses to make lobster traps in Maine hiked prices by 20%.
随着美国与伊朗的紧张关系升级，柴油价格也开始上涨，布鲁克斯不得不为采购的原材料支付额外的运费；同时，由于龙虾渔民们纷纷削减开支，公司的销售额也大幅下降。到了9月，加拿大总理马克·卡尼（Mark Carney）为了报复特朗普对加拿大商品征收的关税，对美国制造的龙虾捕捞设备征收了50%的关税，这使得布鲁克斯每年通过边境出口的约200万美元的商品几乎瞬间枯竭。
When diesel prices began rising as the U.S. war with Iran escalated, Brooks started paying freight surcharges on his materials and saw sales slow as lobstermen tightened their belts. And when Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney slapped 50% tariffs on U.S. lobster traps in September as retaliation for Trump's own duties on Canadian goods, the roughly $2 million in annual shipments Brooks typically sends over the northern border dried up virtually overnight.
“这简直是40年来我们遇到的最糟糕的商业环境，”布鲁克斯说道。作为第三代龙虾捕捞设备制造商和供应商，他与自己的兄弟姐妹共同经营着“布鲁克斯捕捞设备厂”（Brooks Trap Mill），该公司在缅因州拥有七家分支机构。“我们已经竭尽全力降低成本以维持产品价格，但实在已经无计可施了。”在美加贸易战中，几乎没有哪个州比缅因州更脆弱——该州超过40%的出口产品都销往美国。
"It's basically the worst business climate for us that I've ever seen in 40 years," said Brooks, a third-generation lobster-trap manufacturer and supplier, who along with his siblings runs Brooks Trap Mill and its seven locations across Maine. "We've eaten as much cost as we can to try to keep our prices down, but we just can't eat any more than we have already." Few states have been as vulnerable in the U.S.-Canada trade war as Maine, which sends more than 40% of its exports to the U.S.'s northern neighbor.
这些挑战进一步加剧了本已严重的民生问题（尤其是与取暖油相关的问题），因为缅因州对取暖油的依赖程度远高于其他任何州。因此，在今年参议院选举中，关税问题以及更广泛的“生活成本”问题成为了共和党现任参议员苏珊·柯林斯（Susan Collins）与民主党候选人特洛伊·杰克逊（Troy Jackson）之间的核心争论点。杰克逊曾担任缅因州参议院议长。
Those challenges are also piling on top of cost-of-living issues that were already spiraling, especially relating to things like home heating oil, on which Maine depends more than any other state. As a result, tariffs specifically — and affordability concerns more broadly — are center stage in this year's "toss up" Senate race between GOP incumbent Sen. Susan Collins and Democrat Troy Jackson, a former president of the Maine Senate.
民调显示，在这次选举中，经济问题已成为缅因州乃至全国选民最关心的议题。本月萨福克大学（Suffolk University）对缅因州潜在选民进行的调查显示，超过90%的受访者认为该州的经济状况“一般”或“糟糕”；多数人认为缅因州的发展方向错误，57%的受访者对特朗普的表现持。
Polls show the economy is at the top of the list of voters' concerns this election, in Maine and nationwide. More than 90% of respondents in a Suffolk University poll this month of likely Maine voters rated the state's economy as "fair" or "poor," while a majority said the state is on the wrong track and 57% gave Trump an unfavorable rating.
这里的关键问题是，这种不满是否会转化为对柯林斯的反对票，还是她能够将自己与特朗普和共和党议程中不受欢迎的部分区分开来。
The key question here is whether that dissatisfaction will translate into votes against Collins, or whether she will be able to separate herself from an unpopular piece of Trump's and the Republican Party's agenda.
“这是本次竞选中的重大问题之一：苏珊·柯林斯与唐纳德·特朗普之间有多大独立性？”缅因大学法明顿分校政治学教授吉姆·梅尔彻说。
"That's one of the big issues in this campaign: How independent is Susan Collins from Donald Trump?" said Jim Melcher, a political science professor at the University of Maine at Farmington.
在全国各地，竞争性席位上的共和党候选人一直在努力寻找与白宫保持距离的方式。
Across the country, Republican candidates in competitive seats have been working to find ways to distance themselves from the White House.
在密歇根州，共和党候选人迈克·罗杰斯批评了加拿大关税，并呼吁尽快结束伊朗战争。在艾奥瓦州，竞选参议员的共和党人阿什利·欣森公开反对特朗普暂时降低进口碎牛肉关税的决定，她表示这将损害美国养牛户的利益。而在新罕布什尔州、阿拉斯加州、俄亥俄州和内布拉斯加州，共和党参议员候选人都对特朗普允许进口俄罗斯柴油的决定表达了担忧——此举推翻了此前扩大对俄制裁的立法，前后仅隔数周。
In Michigan, GOP candidate Mike Rogers has criticized the Canada tariffs and called for a quick end to the Iran war. In Iowa, Ashley Hinson, a Republican running for Senate, came out against Trump's decision to temporarily lower tariffs on imported ground beef, which she said would hurt U.S. cattle ranchers. And GOP Senate hopefuls in New Hampshire, Alaska, Ohio and Nebraska have all expressed concerns over Trump's decision to allow imports of Russian diesel, reversing course weeks afterg legislation to expand sanctions on Russia.
但缅因州是对今年选民是否会将总统与其所属政党的其他人区分开来的终极考验。柯林斯长期以来以其独立倾向而闻名并备受赞誉，她是在2024年投票反对特朗普的州中唯一寻求连任的共和党现任议员。民调显示选情胶着，在FiftyPlusOne汇总的民调中，杰克逊平均领先2个百分点。
But Maine presents the ultimate test of whether voters this year will distinguish between the president and the rest of his party. Collins, long known and praised for her independent streak, is the lone GOP incumbent running for reelection in a state that voted against Trump in 2024. And polls show the race is tight, with Jackson leading by an average of 2 percentage points in polls compiled by FiftyPlusOne.
“我们不应该与加拿大打贸易战”——柯林斯和杰克逊都严厉批评了关税，关税在这里极不受欢迎：根据CNN上个月的民调，七成可能投票的缅因州选民表示对加拿大商品征收关税对该州不利，而只有12%的人称其为“好事”。
'We shouldn't be in a trade war with Canada' Both Collins and Jackson have sharply criticized the tariffs, which are deeply unpopular here: Seven in 10 likely Maine voters say duties on Canadian goods are bad for the state, while only 12% called them "a good thing," according to a CNN poll last month.
但两位候选人在谁应为经济损失负责以及谁更有能力解决这一问题上的看法存在分歧。
But the candidates disagree over who bears responsibility for the economic damage, and who could better do something about it.
柯林斯多次在关税问题上抵制特朗普政府，并成功争取到部分关键项目免除加拿大关税，包括混凝土、木浆和融雪盐。杰克逊认为，国会本应能够完全阻止这些关税，而柯林斯尽管在华盛顿资历深厚，本应能为本州做更多工作。
Collins has repeatedly pushed back against the Trump administration on duties and was able to secure exemptions from the Canada tariffs for some key items, including concrete, wood pulp and road salt. Jackson argues that Congress should have been able to prevent the tariffs altogether, and that Collins, for all her seniority in Washington, should have been able to do more to help her state.
“底线是，特洛伊和我都会投反对票反对加拿大关税，”柯林斯在10月13日的辩论中表示，这是两位候选人举行的四场辩论中的第三场。“但我已经能够通过谈判让某些项目从关税清单中移除——特洛伊什么也得不到。”
"The bottom line is Troy and I both would have voted against the Canadian tariffs," Collins said in an Oct. 13 debate, the third of four held between the two candidates. "But I have been able to negotiate and get certain items removed from the tariff list — Troy would have gotten nothing."
“我不会因为柯林斯参议员让某些项目从清单中移除而给她加分，因为我们根本不应该有这份清单，”杰克逊回应道。“我们不应该与加拿大陷入贸易战。”
"I'm not going to give Sen. Collins credit for taking things off the list, when we should have never had a list," Jackson replied. "We shouldn't be in a trade war with Canada." "Troy spent most of his life working along the Canadian border, so he knows how important this relationship is to Maine's economy, and he sees Trump's tariffs for what they are: a tax on Maine families and small businesses," Maggie Amjad, a Jackson's campaign spokesperson, said in response to CNBC's request for comment about the effects of tariffs and the Iran war.
“特洛伊一生中的大部分时间都在加拿大边境工作，所以他深知这种关系对缅因州经济的重要性，他看清了特朗普关税的本质：这是对缅因州家庭和小企业的一种税收，”杰克逊竞选团队发言人玛吉·阿姆贾德在回应CNBC关于关税和伊朗战争影响的置评请求时表示。柯林斯竞选团队拒绝就关税问题进一步置评。
The Collins campaign declined to comment further on the tariffs.
龙虾产业幸免于加拿大征收的最严厉关税，因为渥太华在最后一刻决定将龙虾排除在报复性关税的名单之外。柯林斯（Collins）的团队表示，这一决定在很大程度上也得益于她的努力：她曾与加拿大驻华盛顿的大使会面，讨论龙虾及相关海产品的豁免问题，并随后发表声明警告称，这些关税“将对缅因州的龙虾渔民造成巨大伤害”。
The lobster industry escaped the worst of the Canada tariffs, after Ottawa made a last-minute decision to leave lobster off its retaliation list. Collins' team says that move, too, was partly due to her influence: She met with Canada's ambassador in Washington to discuss lobster and seafood exclusions, and released a statement afterward warning that tariffs "would have caused tremendous harm to Maine's lobstermen."
然而，龙虾渔民们表示，他们每天在船上使用的几乎所有其他物资的价格都在持续上涨。布鲁克斯（Brooks）生产的捕龙虾笼子现在售价为180美元，而两年前仅为130美元；根据AAA的数据，用于驱动渔船的柴油价格在全州范围内上涨了67%。由于关税和燃油成本的增加，从印度进口的绳索以及主要来自欧洲的鱼饵的价格也同样上涨了。
But lobster fishermen say nearly everything else they use on the boat every day is still getting more expensive. The traps that Brooks makes are selling for $180 now, versus $130 two years ago. The diesel fuel that runs the boats is up 67% statewide over the past year, according to AAA. The rope, much of which is imported from India, and the bait, which largely comes from Europe, is also more expensive due to the combination of tariffs and higher fuel costs.
“我们现在从事这项业务所需的成本都在不断增加，”史蒂夫·特雷恩（Steve Train）说。他每天从卡斯科湾（Casco Bay）捕捞400个龙虾笼子。“这些关税战争对我们毫无帮助。”特雷恩将关税问题归咎于特朗普，并批评他“绕过国会、单方面颁布行政命令，从而给我们带来了麻烦”。不过他也感谢柯林斯为龙虾产业所做的努力。作为一名注册独立选民，他表示自己将在这次选举中把票投给不同的政党，但其中一票一定会投给柯林斯。
"Everything we do in this business costs more money right now," said Steve Train, a lobsterman who hauls 400 lobster traps a day out of Casco Bay. "These tariff wars are not helping us." Train faults Trump for the tariffs and criticizes him for "bypassing Congress" to "issue executive orders to do things that cause us a problem." But he credits Collins for the work she has done to help the lobster industry. A registered independent, he says he will split his vote between the parties this election, but one vote will be for Collins.
“多年来，她一直像守护天使一样守护着龙虾产业，”他说，“我不能因为她属于我不太喜欢的政党就反对她。”
"She has been like a guardian angel for the lobster industry for many years," he said. "I can't oppose her because she's in the same party as somebody I don't like."