
新德里——印度与美国正寻求敲定一项自去年年初以来一直在谈判的贸易协议,美国总统唐纳德·特朗普称双方“非常接近”达成协议,与此同时,新德里正力求在美国市场上获得相对于孟加拉国和越南等同类国家的“竞争优势”。
NEW DELHI -- India and the U.S. are looking to finalize a trade deal they have been negotiating since early last year, with President Donald Trump saying they are "pretty close" to it, even as New Delhi is aiming to secure a "competitive advantage" over its peers such as Bangladesh and Vietnam in the American market.
“他们想达成协议。我们也要达成协议。非常接近了,是的,”特朗普周二在回答有关拟议中的印美贸易协定的问题时对记者说,并补充称这将是一项“与我们(此前)达成的协议大不相同的协议”。特朗普没有详细说明华盛顿和新德里多快能达成协议,以及可能的协议如何独特,但他的言论与印度官员近期的表态相呼应。
"They want to make a deal. We're going to make a deal. Pretty close, yeah," Trump told reporters on Tuesday in response to a question on the proposed India-U.S. trade pact, adding that it would be "a much different kind of deal than we've done [earlier]." Trump did not elaborate on how soon Washington and New Delhi could reach a deal and how the possible deal could be unique, but his comment resonates with recent remarks made by Indian officials.
印度商业和工业部长皮尤什·戈亚尔上周在新德里的一次活动上表示,与美国的贸易协定的第一批次“已经敲定”。“它正在走最后的流程,即法律起草,我们希望很快能敲定,并在我们获得相对于同类国家的可比优势或竞争优势后将其投入运作。”
The first tranche of the trade agreement with the U.S. "has been finalized," India's Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal said at an event in New Delhi last week. "It's going through the final contours, the legal drafting, and we hope to be able to finalize that soon and operationalize that once we get comparable advantage or competitive advantage over our peer countries."
印度商务秘书拉杰什·阿格拉瓦尔上周另行对记者表示:“贸易协定有一个非常重要的组成部分,即它不仅提供市场准入……(它还)提供优惠市场准入。”至于“比较优势”和“优惠市场准入”意味着什么,观察人士正从美国国务卿马尔科·卢比奥周二开启的印度之行中寻找线索。
India's Commerce Secretary Rajesh Agrawal separately told reporters last week, "A trade deal has a very important component that it gives not only market access ... [but it also] gives preferential market access." On what "comparative advantage" and "preferential market access" mean, observers are looking for hints in U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio's India visit that kicked off on Tuesday.
与包括新德里在内的外国代表团通常的行程不同,卢比奥将行程仅限于印度商业之都孟买和位于西部古吉拉特邦贾姆讷格尔的全球最大炼油综合体。
Unlike the usual route for foreign delegations that include New Delhi, Rubio limited his itinerary to India's commercial capital, Mumbai, and the world's largest oil-refining complex, in Jamnagar in the western state of Gujarat.
“鲁比奥强调务实合作而非外交摩擦,”著名印度地缘战略家布拉马·切拉尼周二在X上发帖称。“在美印政治关系承压之际,鲁比奥此行旨在将焦点转向能源安全、企业合作伙伴关系以及解决贸易僵局。”
"Rubio is emphasizing pragmatic cooperation over diplomatic friction," Brahma Chellaney, a prominent Indian geostrategist, posted on X on Tuesday. "With U.S.-India political ties under pressure, Rubio's visit seeks to shift the focus to energy security, corporate partnerships and resolving trade standoffs."
周二,鲁比奥还在孟买与印度外交部长S·贾尚卡尔举行会谈。双方“欢迎印度—美国双边贸易协定(BTA)谈判取得的进展,并重申致力于尽早达成该协定,”印度政府在会后发表的一份声明中表示。鲁比奥还对记者说,双方距离达成协议“非常、非常接近”。“我认为还剩下少数几个项目需要收尾。……希望能在相当快的时间内宣布一些好消息,之后或许领导人可以签署。”
On Tuesday, Rubio also held talks with India's External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar in Mumbai. Both sides "welcomed the progress made in negotiations on the India-U.S. Bilateral Trade Agreement (BTA) and reaffirmed their commitment to working toward its early conclusion," an Indian government statement said after their meeting. Rubio also told reporters that they were "very, very close" to concluding the deal. "I think there's a small number of items left to wrap up. ... And hopefully have some good news to announce fairly soon, and perhaps the leaders can sign it thereafter."
2025年8月,美国对印度商品征收高达50%的关税,将25%的“对等”关税与对印度购买俄罗斯石油的25%惩罚性关税合并,这一举措使双边关系紧张。
In August 2025, the U.S. imposed steep 50% tariffs on Indian goods, combining a 25% "reciprocal" tariff with a 25% penalty for its purchases of Russian oil, a development that strained bilateral ties.
今年2月,新德里和华盛顿敲定了一项临时贸易协议框架,包括取消25%的惩罚性关税,并将对新德里的关税降至18%。该协议原定于3月签署,但在此之前,美国最高法院于2月20日推翻了特朗普的关税政策,使华盛顿向印度提出的18%关税方案失效,并导致进一步谈判,新德里在这些谈判中寻求相较于孟加拉国和越南等国家竞争对手的出口优惠市场准入。
In February this year, New Delhi and Washington finalized a framework for an interim trade deal that included removal of the 25% penalty and bringing down the tariffs on New Delhi to 18%. This deal was set to be signed in March, but before this could happen the U.S. Supreme Court on Feb. 20 struck down Trump's tariffs, leaving Washington's 18% tariff offer to India ineffective, and leading to further negotiations in which New Delhi sought preferential market access for its exporters vis-a-vis competitors from countries like Bangladesh and Vietnam.
印度商业和工业部数据显示,印度今年4月至9月对美商品出口额为508.1亿美元,较去年同期的457.3亿美元增长11.1%。在当前财政年度的前六个月,美国仍然是印度的第一大出口目的地,其次是阿拉伯联合酋长国和中国。
India's merchandise exports to the U.S. stood at $50.81 billion in April-September this year, up 11.1% from $45.73 billion in the same period last year, Commerce and Industry Ministry data show. The U.S. remained India's top export destination in the first six months of the current financial year, followed by the United Arab Emirates and China.
与此同时,在特朗普于10月16日发布对俄制裁豁免令后,双边贸易协定早日达成的前景似乎有所好转。这距离他签署一项新的美国法律——2026年《林赛·格雷厄姆制裁俄罗斯和伊朗法案》(SRIA)——已过去近一个月,该法案威胁对莫斯科能源的主要买家(包括印度和中国)征收高达100%的关税。
Meanwhile, prospects for an early conclusion of the bilateral trade deal appeared to brighten after Trump on Oct. 16 issued a Russia sanctions waiver, almost a month afterg into law a new U.S. measure -- the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act (SRIA) of 2026 -- that threatened up to 100% tariffs on major buyers of Moscow's energy, including India and China.
然而,智库“全球贸易研究倡议”创始人阿杰·斯里瓦斯塔瓦表示,该豁免令为印度争取了时间,但并未提供持久的确定性。
However, Ajay Srivastava, founder of the Global Trade Research Initiative think tank, said the waiver buys India time but offers no lasting certainty.
他指出,俄罗斯在印度石油进口中的份额从7月的51%降至8月的44%,因为印度尽管面临更高价格,仍从美国和阿联酋购买了更多石油。“然而SRIA依然是法律,这让华盛顿有自由重提关税威胁,以在双边贸易谈判中榨取让步,”斯里瓦斯塔瓦在分享给《日经亚洲》的备忘录中写道。
Russia's share of Indian oil imports fell from 51% in July to 44% in August as India bought more from the U.S., despite higher prices, and from the UAE, he noted. "Yet SRIA remains law, leaving Washington free to revive the tariff threat to extract concessions in bilateral trade talks," Srivastava said in a note he shared with Nikkei Asia.
“印度应保障其能源安全,按商业条款购买石油,并为美国压力的再次施加做好准备。暂时的关税减免不应成为永久贸易让步的基础。”
"India should protect its energy security, buy oil on commercial terms and prepare for renewed U.S. pressure. Temporary tariff relief is no basis for permanent trade concessions."