（这是由 Ritholtz Wealth Management 的 Josh Brown 和 Sean Russo 为您带来的《市场最佳股票》。）Josh —— 每周四，我们利用这个专栏介绍一只个股。有时是英伟达，有时是您从未听说过的股票。我保证，这对你们大多数人来说都是一个新名字。Iqvia Holdings（IQV）是一家医疗服务公司，制药商雇佣它来开展临床试验，并追踪其药品的销售情况。
(This is The Best Stocks in the Market , brought to you by Josh Brown and Sean Russo of Ritholtz Wealth Management.) Josh — On Thursdays, we use this column to highlight a single name. Sometimes it's Nvidia, sometimes it's a stock you've never heard of before. I guarantee this will be a new one for most of you. Iqvia Holdings (IQV) is the healthcare services company drugmakers hire to run their clinical trials and to track how their drugs sell.
可以把它们看作整个制药和生物技术行业的“信息军火商”。这个名字是一堂历史课。它始于 1954 年的 InterContinental Marketing Statistics，后来成为 IMS Health，一家处方数据收集公司。1982 年，Dennis Gillings 在北卡罗来纳州创立了 Quintiles，为制药商开展临床试验。两家公司于 2016 年 10 月合并，成为 QuintilesIMS，2017 年 11 月，公司更名为 Iqvia，股票代码也从 Q 变更为 IQV。
Think of them as an information arms dealer to the entire pharma and biotechnology industry. The name is a history lesson. It began in 1954 as Intercontinental Marketing Statistics, which became IMS Health, a collector of prescription data. In 1982, Dennis Gillings founded Quintiles in North Carolina to run clinical trials for drugmakers. The two merged in October of 2016 as QuintilesIMS, and in November 2017 the company renamed itself Iqvia, with the ticker changing from Q to IQV.
I 代表 IMS，Q 代表 Quintiles，VIA 意为“通过”。今年早些时候，这只股票卷入了 AI 颠覆抛售潮，市场担心 AI 会削减对外包研究公司的需求。它在 4 月底触底，目前已从低点上涨 79%。市场正在判断 AI 对这项业务是威胁还是顺风，Sean 将在下文阐述顺风论。Iqvia 将于美东时间周二 10 月 27 日开盘前公布第三季度业绩，因此时机至关重要。
The I is for IMS, the Q is for Quintiles, and VIA means by way of. Earlier this year, the stock got caught in the AI-disruption sell-off, with the market worried that AI would shrink the need for hired research firms. It bottomed in late April and is now up 79% off that low. The market is deciding whether AI is a threat or a tailwind for this business, and Sean makes the tailwind case below. Iqvia reports Q3 before the open on Tuesday, Oct. 27, so the timing matters.
Sean 将在下文介绍基本面。我将稍后回归，分享技术面以及我们可能出错的地方。最佳股票聚焦：Iqvia Holdings, Inc.（IQV）Sean —— 正如 Josh 所说，Iqvia 是制药商雇佣来开展临床试验并告知其药品销售情况的公司（坦白说，我此前并不了解这家公司！）。IQV 拥有一个研究部门，即 R & D Solutions，这是一家合同研究组织。
Sean has the fundamentals below. I'll be back with the technicals and where we'd be wrong. Best Stock Spotlight: Iqvia Holdings, Inc. (IQV) Sean — Iqvia is the company drugmakers hire to run their clinical trials and to tell them how their drugs are selling, as Josh noted (and in full transparency, I was not aware of this business!). IQV has a research side, R & D Solutions, which is a contract research organization.
当制药或生物技术公司想要测试一种新药时，Iqvia 会寻找试验地点、招募患者、开展试验并清理数据。
When a pharma or biotech company wants to test a new drug, Iqvia finds the sites, recruits the patients, runs the trial and cleans the data.
其“商业解决方案”业务部门负责销售基于自身业务数据和分析结果的产品；顺便提一下，该公司拥有全球最大的私人医疗健康数据集之一（包括处方信息、患者记录等）。人工智能（AI）确实可以为该公司带来巨大帮助。Iqvia旗下的两大业务板块都致力于从复杂的数据中挖掘有价值的信息，并提升工作效率。管理层表示，公司已在全球90个应用场景中部署了294个AI系统；全球前20家制药公司中有19家正在使用其AI工具，其中前10家公司中有4家还与该公司共同开发AI技术。
Its Commercial Solutions segment then sells the data and analytics built on its operations, and oh by the way, they have one of the largest private healthcare datasets in the world (prescriptions, patient records and more). AI could really help this company. Both businesses within Iqvia are about finding patterns in messy data and speeding up workflows. Management says it has 294 AI agents deployed across 90 use cases, that 19 of the top 20 pharma companies use its AI tools, and that four of the top 10 are co-developing AI with it.
今年9月，Iqvia推出了“Predictive Clinical Development”（预测性临床开发）平台，该平台的数据清洗效率比公司以往的自动化流程快了50%。首席执行官还表示，由于AI技术能够识别更多有潜力的药物候选物，一些大型制药客户的研发项目数量预计将翻倍。首席财务官将AI视为提升公司运营效率的关键工具之一；该工具在第二财季为公司带来了约90个基点的营业利润率提升。因此，不仅公司的总市场规模在不断扩大，其从该市场中获得的利润也在持续增长。
In September, Iqvia launched Predictive Clinical Development, which it says delivers 50% faster data cleaning than its own historical performance. The CEO also said some large pharma clients expect to double their study-phase portfolios as AI identifies more drug candidates. The CFO described AI as one lever in a productivity program that added about 90 basis points of operating margin in Q2. So not only is the total addressable market expanding, but the margin they earn servicing this market is expanding too.
Iqvia于7月28日公布了第二季度的财务业绩，各项指标均超出预期：营收达到43.7亿美元（同比增长8.7%），调整后的每股收益为3.15美元（同比增长12.1%）。公司的研发新订单额为31.5亿美元，同比增长19%；合同在手订单总额增至342亿美元。管理层指出，营收、息税折旧及摊销前利润（EBITDA）和每股收益均超过了公司此前给出的业绩预期上限。
Iqvia reported Q2 earnings on July 28 and beat on both lines. Revenue was $4.37 billion (+8.7%) vs. $4.3 billion expected, and adjusted EPS was $3.15 (+12.1%) vs. $3.03. R & D net new bookings were $3.15 billion, up 19% with a 1.22x book-to-bill, and contracted backlog grew to $34.2 billion.
首席执行官称这是他在过去25年多时间里看到的最稳健的季度业绩。公司股价在财报公布后上涨了约14%。截至10月20日，这家制药科技公司的年内涨幅已达18.8%，过去三个月的涨幅为31%，股价较52周低点154.50美元上涨了79%。这一低点出现在AI技术引发市场恐慌、投资者担心AI会减少对专业研究机构需求的时期。目前，该公司的市盈率已从2025年底的18倍降至约13倍。
Management said revenue, EBITDA and EPS all came in above the high end of guidance, and the CEO called it the cleanest quarter of his 25-plus years of reporting earnings. The stock jumped roughly 14% on the print. The pharma tech company is up 18.8% YTD (total return through 10/20), 31% over the last three months, and 79% above its 52-week low of $154.50. That low came during the AI-disruption selloff, when the market worried that AI would shrink the need for hired research firms. The forward P/E fell to about 13x in February from 18x at the end of 2025.
按2026年调整后每股收益（EPS）指引中点（12.90美元）计算，IQV目前的市盈率约为21.5倍，预期EPS增长率约为8%。Iqvia将于周二（10月27日）开盘前发布第三季度业绩。第三季度指引为：营收43.2亿至43.9亿美元，调整后EBITDA 10亿至10.2亿美元，调整后EPS 3.19至3.29美元。管理层指引全年EBITDA利润率持平，因为低利润率收购和汇率尾风减弱抵消了生产率提升带来的收益，因此不必担心未来几个季度缺乏盈利增长。该股已从低点反弹79%，让我们看看随着公司即将公布第三季度业绩，该如何操作。
At the midpoint of 2026 adjusted EPS guidance ($12.90), IQV now trades at about 21.5x, for roughly 8% expected EPS growth. Iqvia reports Q3 results before the market opens on Tuesday, October 27. Q3 guidance is revenue of $4.32B to $4.39B, adjusted EBITDA of $1B to $1.02B and adjusted EPS of $3.19 to $3.29. Management is guiding to flat EBITDA margins for the year, as lower-margin acquisitions and a fading FX tailwind offset productivity gains, so don't be worried about a lack of profitability growth in coming quarters. The stock has rallied 79% off its low, let's take a look at how to play this as the company heads into its Q3 print.
风险管理：Josh——我一直在寻找的形态是更高的高点和更高的低点，Iqvia完美符合这一模式。该股在春季见底于155美元附近，6月形成更高低点于163美元附近，7月突破200日均线。上文Sean描述的第二季度财报推动股价在大量成交下向上跳空开盘，开盘价接近233美元。该跳空缺口在8月初接受考验，股价回落至227美元，形成另一个更高低点，随后买方接管主导权。
Risk management: Josh — The set-up I'm always looking for is higher highs and higher lows and Iqvia fits the mold perfectly. The stock bottomed near $155 in the spring, made a higher low near $163 in June, and cleared its 200-day in July. The second quarter report Sean described above sent it gapping higher on heavy volume, with the candle opening near $233. The gap was tested in early August when the stock slipped to $227, another higher low, and buyers took over from there.
自8月下旬以来，股价在250至279美元区间震荡，上升的50日均线逐渐上移靠拢。10月初回调至250美元区间时，在与9月低点相同位置获得买盘支撑。该股今早在274美元附近交易，50日均线在262美元，200日均线在208美元。9月高点279美元附近是需突破的关键位。RSI为63，在完全重置后动能正在恢复。RSI曾在8月下旬升至70多点中段，随后在10月初回调时跌至40多点低段，但股价未失守区间。
Since late August it has held a range between $250 and $279, with the rising 50-day climbing up to meet it. The dip to the $250 area in early October was bought at the same spot as the September low. The stock traded around $274 this morning, with the 50-day at $262 and the 200-day at $208. The September high near $279 is the level to clear. With RSI at 63, momentum is rebuilding after a full reset. It ran into the mid 70s in late August, then washed out to the low 40s on the early October dip without the stock losing its range.
想离场的筹码已基本清洗完毕。随着股价逼近区间上沿，RSI在两周内反弹逾20点，在进入超买区域前仍有空间。交易者和投资者可共同以250美元作为关键支撑线。
Anyone who wanted out has already been cleaned up. RSI has climbed back more than twenty points in two weeks as the stock presses the top of the range, and it still has room before it gets stretched. Traders and investors can use the same line here, $250.
9月的低点和10月初的低点都落在这一位置，这是对同一位置的两次测试，也是自8月以来一直守住的价格区间的底部。若收盘跌破该位置，则意味着区间已被跌破，更高的低点也不复存在。图表很快就会告诉你答案。投资者可以等到周线收盘再做判断。艾昆纬下周公布第三季度财报，而财报可能让股价跳空越过任何价位，使你来不及依据收盘价采取行动。
That's where the September low and the early October low both landed, two tests of the same spot, and it's the floor of the range that has held since August. A close below it says the range has broken and the higher lows are gone. The chart will let you know in short order. Investors can wait for the weekly close to make the call. Iqvia reports Q3 next week, and an earnings report can gap a stock through any level before you get a chance to act on a close.