
让-埃米尔·贾米内很高兴欢迎费德里科·多内利,他是意大利的里雅斯特大学政治与社会科学系国际关系副教授。又三天的军事打击能否实现八个月对抗未能达成的目标?
Jean-Emile Jammine is pleased to welcome Federico Donelli, Associate Professor of International Relations in the Department of Political and Social Sciences at the University of Trieste in Italy. Can another three days of military strikes achieve what eight months of confrontation have failed to deliver?
多内利质疑了这样一个假设:短期高强度攻势必然会产生决定性的政治结果。
Donelli challenges the assumption that a short, intensive offensive would necessarily produce a decisive political outcome.
他认为,“真正的问题是军事施压旨在限制伊朗的能力,还是迫使伊朗坐到谈判桌前。”
He argues, "the real question is whether military pressure is intended to constrain Iran's capacity, or to pressure Iran to sit on the table."
以及他们能否在不引发更广泛地区危机的情况下,将这种能力转化为可持续的政治成果。无论如何,多内利提醒我们,“伊朗仍对美国拥有筹码。”
And whether they can translate that capacity into a sustainable political outcome without provoking a wider regional crisis. Regardless, Donelli reminds us that "Iran still has leverage over the US."