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从加拿大到尼日利亚,一场争夺更多“国防主权”的竞赛正在展开From Canada to Nigeria, a race for more 'defence sovereignty' is on

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2022年,当艾略特·彭斯卸任美国自主武器巨头安德里尔公司国际业务主管一职时,这位出生于加拿大的高管已将大部分职业生涯都奉献给了一个由美国主导的国防科技领域,而他和他的同胞们很少对此提出质疑。

By the time Eliot Pence stood down as head of international operations for US autonomous weapons powerhouse Anduril in 2022, the Canadian-born executive had spent most of his working life in a US-dominated defence-tech sector he says he and his countrymen rarely questioned.

在新冠疫情之后,随着地缘政治紧张局势升温,越来越多的投资涌向新一代武器,如安德里尔公司所制造的武器。就大多数美国盟友对国防技术的思考而言,其优先事项是能够与快速发展的美国军队直接对接。

In the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic and with geopolitical tensions rising, increasing volumes of investment were flowing to a new generation of weapons such as those that company built. Insofar as most US allies thought about defence technology, the priority was its ability to interface directly with a fast-evolving US military.

时隔四年,这一优先事项依然存在。但各国正以比近代任何时候都更快、更大的力度,努力在其系统中重获更多主权。

Fast forward four years, and that priority remains. But nations are pushing harder and faster than at any point in recent history to regain more sovereignty in their systems.

这一转变在各国之间差异很大,但正在形成一些越来越普遍的主题,包括减少对美国的依赖,并寻求受中国控制较少的供应链。

What that shift means varies widely from country to country, but it is developing some increasingly universal themes, including reducing dependence on the United States and a search for supply chains less controlled by China.

彭斯去年创立了多明尼恩动力公司,这是一家致力于在航空航天、自主系统以及指挥与控制领域建立主权能力的加拿大国防科技公司,他担任加拿大-美国经济关系咨询委员会成员。

Pence - who last year founded Dominion Dynamics, a Canadian defence technology company working to establish sovereign capability in aerospace, autonomy and command-and-control - is on the advisory committee on Canada-US economic relations.

他说,加拿大此前超过70%的国防技术需求都来自美国,如今面临着一个新现实:美国政府“有时甚至可以说是充满敌意”。

Canada's previous strategy of sourcing more than 70% of its defence technology requirements from United States, now faced the new reality of a US administration that was "sometimes antagonistic, to put it mildly", he said.

“加拿大现在实际上需要从零开始重建其国防工业,”他在本月伦敦韧性会议的侧边对本栏记者表示。该会议展示了新的国防技术,并与风险投资同台亮相。

"Canada is now effectively needing to rebuild its defence industry from scratch," he told this columnist on the sidelines of this month's London Resilience Conference showcasing new defence technology alongside venture capital.

许多美国盟友对SpaceX运营的“星盾”系统受到的限制、特朗普总统计划购买俄罗斯柴油以及决定豁免对俄罗斯的新制裁感到震惊,乌克兰依赖该系统进行无人机行动。特朗普表示,他是在维护美国利益行事。

Many US allies have been alarmed by limitations placed on the SpaceX-run Starshield system relied on by Ukraine for drone operations and President Donald Trump's plan to buy Russian diesel and decision to waive new Russia sanctions. Trump says he is acting in the interests of the United States.

与此同时,挪威媒体本月报道称,参加挪威军事演习的中国制造电动汽车被发现悄悄拍摄了参演人员,尽管尚不清楚这是否是被故意触发的。

Meanwhile Norwegian media reported this month that Chinese-built electric vehicles taking part in Norwegian military drills were found to have silently filmed participants, although it was not clear if that was deliberately triggered.

多个国家正竞相寻找非中国来源的电池、组件以及关键矿产和化学品,北京去年在与华盛顿的贸易争端中收紧了对多种稀土的出口管制。自去年外交争端以来,北京已切断了对日本的钇供应——钇用于喷气发动机、半导体和国防系统。

Multiple nations are racing to source non-China supplies of batteries, components and essential minerals and chemicals, with Beijing tightening controls of multiple rare earths last year in its trade dispute with Washington. Beijing has choked off Japan's supplies of yttrium– used in jet engines, semiconductors and defence systems - since a diplomatic row between them last year.

虽然一些国家对任何政策和产业转变保持沉默,以避免激怒华盛顿或北京,但其他一些国家正在公开发声。加拿大总理马克·卡尼一直是特朗普最直言不讳的批评者之一,呼吁“中等强国”做更多工作,自主规划其全球航向。

While some nations are keeping quiet about any policy and industrial shifts to avoid antagonising Washington or Beijing, others are speaking out. Canada's Prime Minister Mark Carney has been one of the loudest critics of Trump, calling for "middle powers" to do much more to chart their own global course.

Dominion Dynamics表示,截至6月,该公司已筹集1.69亿加元(约1.18亿美元),主要来自加拿大投资者。其早期产品包括“回声”声纳监视系统,该公司称这将帮助加拿大及亲密盟友——特别是其他北极国家——监控其日益受到争夺的水域。

Dominion Dynamics said it had raised C$169 million ($118 million), mainly from Canadian investors, by June. Its early products include the Echo sonar surveillance system that it says will help Canada and close allies – particularly other Arctic nations – keep track of their increasingly contested waters.

与加拿大其他人一样,彭斯也热衷于强调,这并不意味着加拿大与美国北方司令部长期直接合作的结束。但这意味着渥太华的决策者也将拥有可以依赖的主权系统。

Like others in Canada, Pence was keen to stress that this did not mean an end to Canada’s long-running direct collaboration with the US Northern Command. But it meant those in charge in Ottawa would also have sovereign systems on which they could rely.

上个月,卡尼告诉《纽约时报》,军事规划者现已制定了至少有限的计划,用于应对他所谓的“极端尾部风险”——这是一个金融术语,指一种不太可能但合理的情景——即防御加拿大免受假设性的未来美国攻击。

Last month, Carney told the New York Times military planners had now drawn up at least limited plans for what he called the "extreme tail risk" – a financial phrase referring to an unlikely but plausible scenario – for the defence of Canada from hypothetical future American attack.

自2025年初重返白宫以来,特朗普曾多次质疑加拿大存在的权利,并暗示其可能成为美国第51个州,尽管他总体上排除了使用武力的可能性。

Since returning to office at the start of 2025, Trump has on several occasions questioned Canada's right to exist and suggested it might become the 51st US state, although he has generally ruled out using military force.

针对丹麦更为公开的威胁,暗示华盛顿可能夺取格陵兰岛,也让美国盟友感到不安。

Even more overt threats against Denmark suggesting Washington might seize Greenland, though, have also unnerved US allies.

波罗的海国家、北欧国家和波兰等国现在担心的是,正如在乌克兰所见,未来的美国政府可能会切断对美国系统和武器库存的使用权,以迫使各国政府接受由美国斡旋、以领土或主权为代价的协议。

What nations like the Baltics, Nordics and Poland now fear is that as in Ukraine, future US administrations might cut access to US systems and weapons stocks to push governments towards US-brokered deals costing territory or independence.

法国、英国、德国和韩国等传统军事强国倾向于优先发展“高价值大项目”,如舰艇、坦克和潜艇,这些项目往往在政治角力激烈的地区创造大量就业岗位。

Established military players such as France, Britain, Germany and South Korea have tended to prioritise "big ticket" items such as ships, tanks and submarines that bring significant numbers of jobs in often politically contested regions.

然而,越来越多的官员和新一代防务企业通过观察乌克兰乃至更广泛地区的情况,得出结论认为,重心需要转向廉价、可大规模生产的攻击和监视系统。

Increasingly, however, officials and a new generation of defence firms are looking to what has happened in Ukraine and well beyond and have concluded that the focus needs to shift to cheap, mass producible systems for attack and surveillance.

一些防务内部人士表示,其结果可能是全球军工产业版图和军力格局发生迅速而剧烈的变化,包括在意想不到的地方。

The result, some defence insiders say, may be a swift and dramatic shift in the global shape of both military industry and power, including in unexpected places.

本届韧性大会的主要赞助商之一是尼日利亚的Terra Industries公司,该公司目前在阿布贾拥有约200名员工,致力于交付一系列无人机,包括航程1000公里(620英里)的“Archer”无人机,以及提供24小时AI监视的“Kallon”太阳能哨塔。

One of the key sponsors of the Resilience Conference was Nigeria's Terra Industries, now with some 200 staff working in Abuja to deliver a range of drones including the Archer with a 1,000-km (620-mile) range and the Kallon solar-powered sentry tower providing 24-hour AI surveillance.

创始人内森·恩瓦丘库曾在美国退学创办一家教育科技初创企业,但在考量到2022年俄罗斯全面入侵乌克兰对国际秩序构成的威胁后,他改变了方向。

Founder Nathan Nwachuku quit university in the US to found an educational technology startup first, but changed tack after considering the threat to the international order posed by Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

他说,尼日利亚等非洲国家面临的不是传统入侵的风险,而是武装团体、国家武装帮派、金融利益集团以及包括莫斯科和北京在内的大国实施的更隐蔽但可能致命的干预。

What African nations like Nigeria faced was not the risk of traditional invasion, he said, but more subtle yet potentially lethal intervention by militant groups, state-armed gangs, financial interests and major powers including Moscow and Beijing.

他说,阻止这种干预的关键在于利用廉价技术来保卫边境和关键基础设施。

Critical to stopping that, he said, was using cheap technology to secure borders and essential infrastructure.

恩瓦丘库表示:“我们的中央情报平台可跨基础设施实施大规模指挥控制、自主任务规划和威胁情报工作。”他补充称,目前没有任何中国或美国公司能为非洲企业或政府提供类似的东西。

"Our central intelligence platform carries out large-scale command and control, autonomous mission planning and threat intelligence across infrastructure," Nwachuku said, adding that at present no Chinese or US company could offer African firms or governments anything like that.

关键在于,虽然该公司是尼日利亚企业,但当它与其他国家合作——迄今主要是加纳——时,会将服务器设在该国,以保持有效的国家主权控制。

Crucially, while the company is Nigerian, when it works with other nations – so far primarily Ghana – it bases its servers in that country to maintain effective national sovereign control.

在幕后,美国军方及其全球指挥体系也经常悄悄支持小国建立独立于华盛顿提供的能力。

In the background, the US military and its global command structures are also often quietly supportive of smaller nations building up capability separate to that Washington provides.

有时,这种联合合作能巩固特定盟友之间的更广泛关系。英国正与挪威合作研制军舰,日本也在与澳大利亚合作,而堪培拉还在与美国安德鲁尔公司共同建造“幽灵鲨”水下无人机,并与波音公司共同研制“幽灵蝙蝠”无人机。

Sometimes, such joint working can cement broader relations between specific allies. Britain is working with Norway on warships as is Japan with Australia while Canberra is also building the Ghost Shark underwater drone with US-based Anduril and aerial Ghost Bat with Boeing.

分析人士和外交官表示,初创的英意日“未来全球空战计划”在日本的对欧防务关系中的作用,在东京看来与战机本身同样关键,而乌克兰的战斗持续吸引着几乎各种规模和类型的国防承包商前来汲取经验教训带回国内。

Analysts and diplomats say the role of the fledgling UK-Italy-Japan Future Global Combat Air Program in Japan's defence relationship with Europe is seen in Tokyo as being as critical as the aeroplane itself, while fighting in Ukraine continues to draw in more and more defence contractors of almost every size and type keen for lessons to take home.

但此类伙伴关系往往充满波折。《政客》(Politico)本周报道称,德国退出了原计划采购“幽灵蝙蝠”(Ghost Bat)无人机的计划,而一项法德联合战机项目于6月宣告破裂。

But such partnerships are often fraught. Politico this week reported Germany pulling back from its planned Ghost Bat purchase, while a Franco-German fighter project collapsed in June.

在本月于伦敦举行的另一场峰会上,负责构建“盟军水下战场任务网络”(Allied Underwater Battlespace Mission Network)——该网络整合了来自美国、澳大利亚及欧洲大部分国家的多套系统和传感器——的英国高级军官抱怨称,各国各自为政的实验和重复建设有造成资源浪费的风险。

At another summit in London this month, the senior British officer building an Allied Underwater Battlespace Mission Network – bringing together multiple systems and sensors from the US, Australia and much of Europe – complained nationally driven experimentation and duplication risked wasting resources.

俄罗斯和中国的评论员本周指出,华盛顿与基辅的最新裂痕可能是永久性的,并预示着未来将与其他盟友出现决裂。其他国家必然需要学会在更大程度上自力更生——但要让已经在窥伺的潜在敌手保持威慑,关键在于让这些努力能够无缝协同。

Russian and Chinese commentators have this week suggested Washington's latest schism with Ukraine may be permanent and point to future breaks with other allies. Other nations will surely need to learn to do much more on their own – but it will take making those efforts work seamlessly together to keep already watching potential enemies deterred.

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