你刚才在研究出行方案时皱眉的表情？还是习惯一下吧。
That wince you just made while researching travel options? Get used to it. Why it matters:
为何重要：飞机燃油价格飙升正在加速航空业的变革，体现在票价上涨、高端舱位比例增加以及旅客可选航班减少。
Soaring jet fuel prices are accelerating changes across the airline industry, seen in higher fares, premium-heavy cabins and fewer flight options for travelers.
- 政府的机票价格指数显示，9月机票价格同比上涨22%，连续第10个月上涨，创下历史新高。
• Airfares rose 22% year over year in September, marking a 10th straight monthly increase in the government's airfare price index, which hit an all-time high.
现状：所有主要航空公司都深受其苦：
State of play: All the major airlines are feeling the pain:
- 美国航空公司今日报告称，第三季度燃油账单同比激增近70%，增加成本19亿美元，抵消了收入增长。
• American Airlines reported today that its fuel bill jumped nearly 70% in the third quarter from a year ago, adding $1.9 billion in costs and undercutting its revenue growth.
- 西南航空和联合航空本周均因燃油成本上升下调了盈利预期。
• Southwest and United Airlines both slashed their profit forecasts this week on higher fuel costs.
- 达美航空预计，今年燃油账单将比去年高出60亿美元。
• And Delta Air Lines expects its fuel bill this year to come in $6 billion above last year's.
影响：为保护利润，航空公司正在提高票价，并转向更多高端座位，以从每个航班中榨取更多收入。
The impact: To protect their bottom lines, airlines are raising fares and turning to more premium seats to squeeze more revenue out of their flights.
- 西南航空第三季度平均旅客票价同比上涨26.9%至231.69美元——且不含各项费用。
• At Southwest, the average passenger fare rose 26.9% to $231.69 in the third quarter, compared with a year earlier — and that doesn't include fees.
- 达美航空第三季度高端座位收入增长18%，尽管高端座位数量仅增加6%。
• Delta's premium seating revenue jumped 18% in the third quarter, even though the number of premium seats rose only 6%.
他们怎么说：航班优惠服务Going.com创始人斯科特·基斯表示，航空公司除了涨价，几乎没有其他选择来弥补额外的燃油成本。
What they're saying: The airlines have few options to make up for extra fuel costs other than fare increases, said Scott Keyes, founder of flight-deal service Going.com.
- 基斯在采访中说：“它们不再像过去那样大规模对冲燃油，很大程度上是因为它们以前在这方面吃过大亏。”
• "None of them are hedging fuel the way they used to, in large part because they had a pretty terrible experience with it," Keyes said in an interview.
大局观：然而，航空公司高管认为，这些变化——其中许多早已在进行中——是一种必要的新常态。
The big picture: Airline executives, however, see these changes — many of which were already underway — as a necessary new normal.
- 达美航空首席执行官埃德·巴斯蒂安在10月9日的财报电话会上表示，今年的燃油价格飙升只是“加速”了变革。
• This year's fuel spike has only "accelerated" change, Delta CEO Ed Bastian said on the company's earnings call on Oct. 9.
- “无论燃油价格下一步如何变化，重塑美国航空业的力量将继续发挥作用，许多航空公司在燃油价格飙升之前很久就已难以赚回资本成本，”他说。
• "Regardless of the next move in fuel prices, the forces reshaping the U.S. airline industry will continue with many carriers struggling to earn their cost of capital well before the run-up in fuel," he said.
- 联合航空首席执行官斯科特·柯比周三对投资者表示，近年来，包括机场费、维修和发动机在内的行业潜在成本大幅上升，航空公司必须从根本上改变其经济模式。
• United CEO Scott Kirby told investors Wednesday that the industry's underlying costs — including airport fees, maintenance and engines — have increased so much in recent years that airlines must fundamentally change their economics.
深度解读：高管们呼应了巴斯蒂安本月早些时候关于定价的言论，本周表示，为保护盈利能力而实施的较高票价和其他变动，即便在喷气燃油价格回落后，也很可能会保持不变。
Zoom in: Executives echoed Bastian's comments on pricing from earlier in the month, suggesting this week that the higher fares and other changes to protect profitability are likely to remain in place even after jet fuel prices ease.
- “我非常有信心，我们不会在定价上倒退，”柯比说。“我认为我们今年证明了，这一次不一样了。”
• "I'm pretty confident that we're not going to take steps backwards in pricing," Kirby said. "I think we're demonstrating this year that it's different this time."
- 美国航空首席执行官罗伯特·伊索姆表示，燃油价格飙升“只是一个催化剂，让我们意识到存在价值”，指的是客户强劲的需求，他们愿意支付更高的票价。
• American CEO Robert Isom said the fuel price spike "has just been a catalyst to allow us to realize that there is value," referring to the strong demand from customers willing to pay higher fares. And airlines are becoming
而航空公司正变得越来越不愿运营不赚钱的航班——这可能会让旅客面临更少的选择。
increasingly reluctant to operate flights that don't make money — potentially leaving travelers with fewer options.
- 联合航空的柯比预测，这一趋势将在整个行业持续下去。“一条黄金法则——不飞亏损航线，”他在公司财报电话会上说。“将会有更少的亏损航班，”他预测道。
• United's Kirby predicted that trend will continue across the industry. "One golden rule — don't fly places that lose money," he said on the company's earnings call. "There's going to be less loss-making flying," he predicted.
由伊朗战争引发的燃油价格上涨——这在很大程度上扼杀了供应——其后果始于今年早些时候精神航空的关停。
The fallout from higher fuel prices — triggered largely by the war in Iran, which has throttled supplies — started with the shutdown of Spirit Airlines earlier this year.
- 虽然精神航空的麻烦不少，但燃油价格飙升被普遍视为压垮这家廉价航空公司的最后一根稻草。
• While Spirit's troubles were many, the fuel price spike was widely seen as the last straw for the budget carrier.
- 基斯说，它的退出意味着航空公司现在更容易通过收取更高费用来覆盖额外的燃油成本。
• And its exit means it's now easier for airlines to get away with charging more to cover their extra fuel costs, Keyes said.
- “Spirit的倒闭是导致机票价格如此迅猛上涨的另一个因素，因为它们和其他廉价航空公司在一定程度上充当了机票价格总体的‘锚’，”Keyes说。
• "Spirit's demise is another factor in why you're seeing airfare go up so precipitously because they and other budget airlines act as something of an anchor for airfare in general," Keyes said. The bottom line:
结论：燃油价格最终可能会回落。但别指望机票价格会跟着下降。
Fuel prices may eventually come back down. Don't count on airfares following.