班加罗尔10月23日电：路透社对经济学家的调查显示，得益于蓬勃的半导体出口和人工智能相关投资，有助于抵消依然不均衡的国内需求，韩国经济第三季度增速较第二季度略有加快。
BENGALURU, Oct 23 : South Korea's economy grew slightly faster in the third quarter than in April to June, as booming semiconductor exports and AI-related investment helped offset still-uneven domestic demand, a Reuters poll of economists showed.
由人工智能推动的芯片繁荣已支撑韩国经济多年，但也使其对芯片出口的依赖日益加深，且相关收益尚未广泛惠及国内经济。同时，高昂的借贷成本和居高不下的家庭债务拖累了家庭消费。
An AI-fuelled chip boom has supported South Korea's economy for years, but has also made it increasingly reliant on chip exports, with the gains yet to spread widely through the domestic economy. Meanwhile, high borrowing costs and elevated household debt have weighed on household consumption.
9月出口同比激增84%，达到创纪录的1209亿美元，其中芯片出口激增262.8%至603亿美元，领涨全线。半导体占总出口额近半，凸显该行业在推动国内生产总值（GDP）增长方面的举足轻重地位。
Exports rose 84 per cent from a year earlier to a record $120.9 billion in September, led by a 262.8 per cent surge in chip exports to $60.3 billion. Semiconductors accounted for nearly half of total shipments, underlining the industry's outsized role in driving gross domestic product growth.
据10月14日至23日对16位经济学家的调查，中位数预测显示，经季节性调整后，韩国经济7至9月季度环比增长0.7%，较4至6月季度的0.6%略有回升。预测区间为0.5%至1.6%。
The economy grew a seasonally adjusted 0.7 per cent in the July-September quarter, according to the median forecast of 16 economists polled from October 14-23, a slight pickup from 0.6 per cent growth in the April-June quarter. Forecasts ranged from 0.5 per cent to 1.6 per cent.
野村证券亚洲经济学家郑宇朴（Jeong Woo Park，音译）表示：“问题是我们是否会看到出口部门的红利惠及国内经济。关键在于观察向国内经济的传导，而财政政策缓解压力是关键渠道之一。”
"The question is whether we will see benefits from the export sector. It is important to see the transmission to the domestic economy, and one of the key channels is fiscal policy to ease the pressures," said Jeong Woo Park, Asia economist at Nomura.
朴说：“金融条件正变得不再宽松，劳动力市场结构性低迷。随着企业更快采用人工智能，年轻一代很难找到工作。”
"Financial conditions are becoming less accommodative and the labour market is structurally in downturn. With companies adopting AI more rapidly, for the younger generation it is very hard to find jobs," Park said.
快速增长的芯片行业与经济其他领域较疲软的需求形成鲜明对比，这引发了部分经济学家的担忧：始于第一季度的复苏正变得日益不均衡。
The contrast between the fast-growing chip sector and softer demand elsewhere in the economy has raised concerns among some economists that the recovery, which began in the first quarter, is becoming increasingly uneven.
按同比基础计算，根据16位经济学家的中位数估计，GDP预计增长3.0%，较上一季度的3.7%有所放缓。
On a year-on-year basis, GDP was forecast to grow 3.0 per cent, slowing from 3.7 per cent in the previous quarter, based on the median estimate from 16 economists.
“由人工智能驱动的增长存在集中度风险，这在一定程度上应引起韩国央行的担忧，但我认为他们并未过多表现出来，”Pantheon Macroeconomics高级经济师Kelvin Lam表示。“韩国经济对此非常脆弱，因为现在一切主要都由半导体行业驱动。”韩国央行周四将基准利率维持在3.00%，符合市场共识预期，并将今年经济增长预期上调至3.3%，明年上调至2.9%。另一项路透社调查预测2026年经济增长将达3.5%。
"The concentration risk of growth being driven by AI should worry the BOK to some extent, but I don't think they are showing it too much," said Kelvin Lam, senior economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics. "The Korean economy is very vulnerable to this as everything now is driven mainly by the semiconductor industry." The Bank of Korea held its benchmark interest rate at 3.00 per cent on Thursday, in line with consensus expectations, and raised its growth forecast to 3.3 per cent for this year and 2.9 per cent for next year. A separate Reuters poll forecast growth of 3.5 per cent in 2026.