切尔诺贝尔是人们被迫逃离的地方，但1998年，一项保护计划却故意将一种珍稀野马带到了那里。2019年，谢尔盖·加什恰克和谢尔盖·帕斯凯维奇在《乌克兰兽类学》上发表的一项研究，使用2018年的相机陷阱，统计出切尔诺贝尔禁区乌克兰境内有137匹普氏野马。当你看到这个故事是如何开始时，这个数字就更加令人印象深刻。
Chernobyl is known as a place people had to flee. Yet in 1998, a conservation program brought a rare wild horse there on purpose. A 2019 study by Sergii Gashchak and Sergii Paskevych, published in Theriologia Ukrainica, used camera traps in 2018 and counted 137 Przewalski's horses in the Ukrainian part of the exclusion zone. That number is more impressive when you look at how the story started.
偷猎和早期的损失造成了影响，但马群幸存了下来。野马有了新家园普氏野马是一种生活在开阔草原景观中的珍稀野马。1998年，阿斯卡尼亚诺娃生物圈保护区发起了一项计划，旨在切尔诺贝尔禁区建立一个自由放养的马群，目的是帮助恢复该地区的生物多样性。根据扎尔基赫和亚辛内茨卡2008年的一篇论文，1998年和1999年共有31匹马被转移到那里，其中10匹雄马和18匹雌马来自阿斯卡尼亚诺娃，3匹雄马来自一家当地动物园。
Poaching and early losses took their toll, but the herd survived.A wild horse gets a new homePrzewalski's horse is a rare wild horse found in open steppe landscapes. In 1998, the Askania Nova Biosphere Reserve initiated a program to establish a free-ranging herd in the Chernobyl exclusion zone. The aim was to help restore the area’s biodiversity. According to a 2008 paper by Zharkikh and Yasynetska, 31 horses were transferred there in 1998 and 1999. Ten males and 18 females were from Askania Nova, and three males were from a local zoo.
马匹在放生前被关在围场内，时间从几周到八个月不等。艰难的第一个阶段该项目开局困难。同一篇论文指出，有8匹马在运输过程中或运输后不久死亡。幸存下来的原始马群繁殖良好，1999年至2003年间，种群数量增长，在2003年和2004年达到65匹的峰值。2004年，又有13匹来自城市动物园的马被放生，没有经过适应期。
Horses were kept in enclosures for a few weeks to eight months before release.A tough first chapterThe project got off to a difficult start. Eight horses died while being transported, or soon after, the same paper noted. The surviving original group bred well, and between 1999 and 2003 the population grew, peaking at 65 horses in 2003 and 2004. In 2004, another 13 horses from city zoos were released without a settling-in period.
它们未能适应，很快就灭绝了，没有留下后代。到2007年10月，数量下降到30至40匹之间。作者报告称，在所有死因已知的死亡案例中，超过70%是由于非法狩猎造成的。他们还发现，狼和疾病对马群的影响很小。卷土重来与2018年的统计马群并未消失。2018年，加什恰克和帕斯凯维奇的相机陷阱在乌克兰禁区记录到137匹马。其中包括47匹种马、66匹母马和年轻雌马，以及24匹小马驹。
They failed to adapt, and soon died out, without offspring. By October 2007, the number had decreased to between 30 and 40 horses. The authors report that over 70 percent of all deaths with a known cause were due to illegal hunting. They also found that wolves and disease had little effect on the herd. The comeback and the 2018 countThe herd did not vanish. In 2018, Gashchak and Paskevych’s camera traps recorded 137 horses in the Ukrainian zone. Among them were 47 stallions, 66 mares and young females, and 24 foals.
研究团队调查了该区域2600平方公里中的720平方公里范围，因此实际数量可能更高。他们还在白俄罗斯境内的一个偏远地区发现了至少4匹马。研究指出，这群马目前的种群状况没有出现负面趋势。部分马匹在2007年至2010年间渡过了普里皮亚季河，并形成了一个新的繁殖群体；不过种群增长速度有所放缓——2009年至2018年的增长速度比1998年至2008年期间低了约三分之一。
The team surveyed up to 720 square kilometers of the 2,600-square-kilometer zone, so the true total was probably higher. They also spotted at least four more horses at a remote location in the Belarusian part of the zone. The authors say the herd’s current demographic indicators show no negative trends. Some horses crossed the Prypiat River between 2007 and 2010 and established a new breeding group. But growth did slow. The rate of increase between 2009 and 2018 was about one-third lower than between 1998 and 2008.
研究人员认为，这可能是由于种群年龄结构发生了变化：最初的马群主要由繁殖能力较强的成年母马组成，而随着时间的推移，年轻且繁殖能力较低的母马逐渐增多。
The authors say this was likely due to the changing age composition of the herd, as the first group consisted only of mature, more productive mares, while younger, less productive mares became more common over time.
为什么需要使用摄像头？这些野生马匹很难被直接计数。Gashchak和Paskevych指出，森林正在逐渐取代原有的草地，因此在树林中观察到马匹的情况非常罕见。摄像头在这种情况下发挥了重要作用。2020年，Schlichting、Dombrovski和Beasley在《Mammal Research》杂志上发表的研究中，在废弃建筑的入口处安装了摄像头。
Why cameras helpThe wild horses are not easy to count. Gashchak and Paskevych say forests are taking over old meadows and sightings in the woods are rare. Cameras help. A 2020 study by Schlichting, Dombrovski, and Beasley in Mammal Research placed cameras at the entrances of abandoned buildings.
2016至2017年的冬季，研究人员在10栋被监测的建筑中有9栋发现了马匹的踪迹；到了2018年夏季，这8栋建筑中都记录到了马匹的出现。研究发现，马匹在冬季更倾向于在夜间活动，而在夏季则多出现在黎明和黄昏时分。这种监测方法有助于了解这群马的数量和遗传多样性（这些信息在研究开始时尚不清楚）。
In the winter of 2016 to 2017, horses were seen 35 times at nine of the ten monitored buildings. In the summer of 2018, they were detected 149 times at all eight buildings monitored that season. The horses were more likely to come at night in winter and at dawn and dusk in summer. The authors say this method could help monitor the herd, whose size and genetic diversity were unknown at the time.
这意味着什么？虽然这个结果看似令人欣慰，但实际上并不简单。2019年的研究显示，至少有两匹马出现了与家马杂交的迹象。Zharkikh和Yasynetska也警告称，如果杀死部分早期繁殖出来的马匹后代，可能会降低种群的遗传多样性。不过总体来看，种群数量仍在上升：2007年时种群数量仅为30至40匹，到2018年已增至137匹。这表明即使种群规模较小，也有恢复的可能——不过仍需继续对其进行密切监测。
What it meansThis is not a simple happy ending. At least two males in the 2019 study showed signs of interbreeding with domestic horses. Zharkikh and Yasynetska also warned that killing off some of the early horses’ offspring could reduce genetic diversity. But the numbers are encouraging. A herd that fell to 30 to 40 horses in 2007 was counted at 137 in 2018. It shows that a small herd can bounce back, though it still needs careful watching.