Kazakhstan cut interest rates for a fourth consecutive meeting after inflation in Central Asia’s largest oil producer slowed to the lowest level since early 2025, but warned there’s little chance of a further reduction this year.

The National Bank of Kazakhstan reduced the benchmark by 50 basis points to 15.75% on Friday, matching the forecasts of three economists surveyed by Bloomberg. The remaining four expected a reduction of 25 basis points.

“The ongoing decline in annual inflation and inflation expectations has created room for a reduction in the base rate,” the Astana-based central bank said in a statement. “At the same time, price pressure remains elevated, and the balance of risks is skewed towards a pro‑inflationary stance.”After a surprise cut in July, Governor Timur Suleimenov signaled that more easing was possible should price growth slow to within 9%-9.5%. Annual inflation reached 9.3% in September.

“Taking into account the current balance of risks, the probability of a change in the base rate by the end of 2026 remains low,” the bank said in its statement. “The possibility of a subsequent rate reduction will depend on the confirmation of a steady weakening of price pressure.”Annual inflation may accelerate by the end of the year due to the low base effect of 2025 for regulated tariffs, according to the statement.

The government will continue to work with the central bank to further combat inflation and improve real incomes, Deputy Prime Minister Serik Zhumangarin told the cabinet on Oct. 13. The administration sees price growth at 7.5% to 9.5% next year, he told parliament the next day.

The tenge’s more than 12% appreciation against the dollar this year — the third best performer in the world — has contributed to efforts to slow inflation. Higher oil prices pushed the nation’s current-account balance to a surplus of $2.4 billion in the first half for the first time in three years.

The Kazakh currency appreciation reduced the appetite of foreign investors, who signaled they could sell more dollars if the tenge weakens from current levels, Aliya Moldabekova, central bank deputy governor, told Bloomberg News this month. It also led the central bank to delay plans to sell as much as $300 million a month from its national oil fund, citing “excess foreign-currency supply.”The economy is expected to grow at an average of more than 5% a year in 2027 to 2029, compared with a 4.2% increase in the first nine months of this year, according to Zhumangarin.

The expansion will be helped a jump in withdrawals from the oil fund to 4.4 trillion tenge ($9.8 billion) in 2027, compared with 2.77 trillion tenge this year, after the government decided to resume additional transfers to the budget to build social and other infrastructure, he said.

Kazakhstan plans to hold elections to regional councils Nov. 29, the final stage of a political revamp introduced by President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev after deadly riots in 2022 that were sparked by increased fuel prices. The nation has gradually raised prices for fuel and utilities services following the April 1 removal of the cap, which was introduced in October last year.

The central bank, whose next policy meeting is scheduled for Dec.4, set its rates corridor — formed from the overnight deposit and lending rates — at plus-or-minus one percentage point around the benchmark.