字号·· | 护眼
半岛电视台

保罗·比亚总统返回喀麦隆,他还能继续执政吗?As President Paul Biya returns to Cameroon, can he still rule?

点「原文对照」整页切到原文,或双击某段只看那段的原文。

喀麦隆总统保罗·比亚在妻子尚塔尔注视下于10月12日在雅温得投下选票,竞选第八个任期 [Zohra Bensemra/路透社]Cameroonian President Paul Biya casts his ballot for his eighth term while his wife, Chantal, watches in Yaounde on October 12, 2025 [Zohra Bensemra/Reuters]

喀麦隆总统保罗·比亚,93岁,再次成为死亡传闻的主角。这位非洲任职时间最长的总统,以长期滞留国外、远离他所统治的中非国家而闻名,最近才从一次最长的海外逗留中返回国内。他长期缺席重燃了关于其健康状况的猜测,未经证实的报道称他已住院甚至已去世。

Cameroonian President Paul Biya, 93, is once again the subject of death rumours. Africa’s longest-serving president, known for his long stays away from the Central African nation he governs, only recently returned home from one of his longest stints abroad. His long absence renewed speculation about his health amid unconfirmed reports that he had been hospitalised or had even died.

尽管比亚在8月下旬结束两个多月的海外行程后返回国内,但部分民众仍不满意。

Despite Biya returning to the country in late August after more than two months abroad, some are unsatisfied.

比亚最近一次“度假”也引发了喀麦隆人对后比亚时代前景的讨论,其可能的继任者们正在争夺主导权——同时也引发了在其健康状况成谜的情况下,他是否还能执政的疑问。

Biya’s most recent “vacation” also got Cameroonians talking about what a post-Biya future could look like as his likely successors jostle for dominance – and whether he can rule at all given the uncertainty over his health.

喀麦隆人希望政府改组能尽快宣布。尽管总统在去年10月有争议的选举中连任第八届,但他至今未宣布组建新政府。

Cameroonians hope a government reshuffle will be announced soon. Although the president was re-elected for an eighth term in disputed elections in October last year, he has not announced a new government since.

许多人也希望终于能任命一位副总统,最好是一位长驻国内的副总统。以下是我们了解的情况:罗伯特,75岁,在2025年10月4日经过一块总统保罗·比亚竞选广告牌时,手里拿着面包准备转卖 [Zohra Bensemra/路透社] 谁是比亚?

Many are also hopeful that a vice president, preferably one who stays in the country, will finally be appointed. Here’s what we know: Robert, 75, carries bread to resell as he walks past an election campaign billboard for President Paul Biya on October 4, 2025 [Zohra Bensemra/Reuters] Who is Biya?

比亚自1982年起在喀麦隆人民民主联盟(RDPC)领导下统治喀麦隆。这比喀麦隆3000万总人口中占70%的30岁以下青年所经历的时间要长得多。

Biya has ruled Cameroon since 1982 under the Cameroon People’s Democratic Party (RDPC). That’s significantly longer than any of Cameroon’s under-30s, who make up 70 percent of the nation’s 30 million population, have been alive.

他是非洲年龄最大的领导人,也是世界上执政时间最长的领导人之一。

He is Africa’s oldest leader and among the world’s longest ruling leaders.

75岁的罗伯特手提面包准备转卖,路过总统保罗·比亚的竞选广告牌,摄于10月4日 [Zohra Bensemra/路透社]Robert, 75, carries bread to resell as he walks past an election campaign billboard for President Paul Biya on October 4, 2025 [Zohra Bensemra/Reuters]

在他的统治下,武装组织“博科圣地”在该国北部的袭击持续不断,而分离主义分子在西部活跃。尽管拥有石油财富,该国经济却基本停滞不前。

Under his rule, attacks by the armed group Boko Haram have continued in the country’s north while separatists are active in the west. Despite the nation’s oil wealth, the economy has largely stagnated.

分析人士表示,常被称为“缺席总统”的比亚,很大程度上将治理权力下放给内阁。反对派领导人指责他让喀麦隆处于“自动驾驶”状态。

Analysts said Biya, often called “the absentee president”, largely delegates governance to his cabinet. Opposition leaders have accused him of running Cameroon on “autopilot”.

据信,总统在瑞士洲际酒店度过了大量时间。根据有组织犯罪与腐败报告项目(Organized Crime and Corruption Reporting Project)的一项分析,到2018年为止,他在私人访问国外上总共花费了四年半。他的妻子尚塔尔·比亚以浮夸的风格闻名。

The president is believed to spend extensive periods at the InterContinental Hotel in Switzerland. By 2018, he had spent a total of four and a half years on private visits abroad, according to an analysis from the Organized Crime and Corruption Reporting Project. His wife, Chantal Biya, is known for her flamboyant style.

比亚最近一次连任引发了大规模抗议,并被安全部队暴力镇压。人权组织称,至少有48人丧生。声称胜选的反对派领导人伊萨·奇罗马·巴卡里被迫流亡冈比亚。

Biya’s latest re-election triggered mass protests which were violently suppressed by security forces. Rights groups said at least 48 people were killed. Opposition leader Issa Tchiroma Bakary, who claimed victory, was forced into exile in The Gambia.

奇罗马曾是比亚政府的一员,在16年间担任过多个部长职务。他在政府与“博科圣地”作战的那些年里担任政府发言人,并曾在军队被指控杀害平民时为其辩护。他一度被视为比亚“老卫队”成员,但此次竞选承诺带来“变革”。比亚此次离开喀麦隆多久?

Tchiroma was formerly part of Biya’s government, holding several ministerial positions over 16 years. He also served as government spokesperson during the years the government fought Boko Haram, and he defended the army when it stood accused of killing civilians. He was once regarded as a member of Biya’s “old guard” but has campaigned on a promise of “change”. How long was Biya away from Cameroon this time?

比亚在离开74天后于8月20日抵达喀麦隆——这是他最长的缺席之一。2024年,他缺席了42天。

Biya arrived in Cameroon on August 20 after 74 days away – one of his longest absences. In 2024, he was absent for 42 days.

总统府称,总统自6月7日起在日内瓦进行“短暂私人逗留”。据当地媒体报道,有家庭成员和部分亲信随行。

The president had been in Geneva for what his office called a “short private stay” since June 7. According to local media, he was joined by family members and some of his close aides.

随着对他健康状况的猜测不断升温,官方否认了比亚在日内瓦一家诊所住院的报道。

As speculation grew about his health during his absence, officials denied reports that Biya had been hospitalised at a clinic in Geneva.

回国后,比亚夫妇受到大批党内支持者的热烈欢迎。画面短暂捕捉到总统从总统专车上挥手致意,并与总理约瑟夫·恩古特握手。但许多喀麦隆人对仅有这么少的视频来表明总统健康状况感到不满。比亚回国后发生了什么?

Upon their return, Biya and his wife were welcomed by a huge crowd of party supporters. There were fleeting images of the president as he waved from the presidential limousine and shook hands with Prime Minister Joseph Ngute. But many Cameroonians were not satisfied with so little video to indicate the state of the president’s health. What has happened since Biya’s return?

总统回国后没发生多少事,这让一些人感到沮丧。自连任以来,他尚未宣布新内阁或副总统人选。

Not much has happened since the president returned, which has frustrated some people. Since his re-election, he has not announced a new cabinet or a vice president.

在他不在期间,他的办公室颁布了数项法令:一项总统令晋升了五名上校,另一项则重组了军队内部的调动。但此后事态便归于平静。

While he was away, his office issued several decrees: A presidential act promoted five colonels and another reorganised transfers within the military. But things have since quieted.

如今,喀麦隆人在网上开玩笑说,总统只是去访问,很快就会回到他在瑞士的住所。

Now, Cameroonians are joking online that the president is merely on a visit and will soon return to his residence in Switzerland.

有人在社交媒体上发布了一条戏谑的标题,写道:“93岁的喀麦隆总统保罗·比亚预计将于下周访问喀麦隆,进行为期两周的工作访问,随后返回他居住的瑞士日内瓦。”会不会进行内阁改组——他还能继续执政吗?

One person posted a playful headline on social media, saying: “Cameroonian President Paul Biya, aged 93, is expected to visit Cameroon next week for a two-week working visit, before returning to Geneva, Switzerland, where he resides.”Will there be a cabinet reshuffle – and can he still rule?

在他缺席期间,喀麦隆执政党对选民的担忧不予理会,坚称不存在宪法或政治真空。然而,既然比亚已经回来,他接下来打算做什么尚不清楚。

While he was absent, Cameroon’s ruling party dismissed voters’ concerns and insisted there was no constitutional or political vacuum. However, now that Biya is back, it’s unclear what he plans to do next.

撒哈拉以南非洲国家风险分析师杰森·希利此前告诉半岛电视台,推迟部长任命可能是一种战略举措,使比亚得以对任何政治变动保持控制。但专家警告说,长期的政治停滞正在影响投资者对该国的信心。

Jason Healy, a sub-Saharan African country risk analyst, told Al Jazeera previously that delaying ministerial appointments could be a strategic move that allows Biya to maintain control over any political changes. But experts have warned that the prolonged political stagnation is affecting investor confidence in the country.

喀麦隆人现在非常好奇,如果总统无法继续执政,谁可能接替他,因为他长期滞留国外加剧了执政党内潜在继任者之间的权力斗争。比亚从未指明或培养过可能的继任者,这增加了不确定性。

Cameroonians are now highly curious about who might take over from the president if he is unable to continue as his long stay abroad intensified a power struggle among his would-be successors in the ruling party. Biya has never identified or groomed a likely successor, adding to the uncertainty.

现在,所有目光都集中在谁可能被任命为副总统上。该职位于1972年被废除,但今年4月,议会出人意料地恢复了这一职位。

Now, all eyes are on who might be appointed as vice president. The post was abolished in 1972, but in April, the parliament surprisingly re-established it.

根据新法律,总统可以挑选和罢免副总统。如果总统无法履职,被任命者将完成总统七年任期的剩余时间。

Under the new law, the president can select and dismiss the vice president. The appointee would serve out the remainder of the president’s seven-year term if he is unable to.

一些人认为该法律是比亚试图挑选可能继任者的举动,尽管反对党批评其不民主,称它实质上阻碍了选举。

Some see the law as an attempt by Biya to select a possible successor although opposition parties have criticised it as undemocratic, saying it essentially blocks elections.

由于没有副总统,参议院议长阿布巴卡里·阿卜杜拉耶将成为下一顺位领导人,直至举行选举。然而,分析人士指出,该国的秘书长费迪南德·恩戈-恩戈被认为是“事实上的总统”,可能是潜在的副总统人选。

With no vice president, Senate President Aboubakary Abdoulaye would be next in line to lead until elections could be held. Analysts, however, pointed to the country’s secretary-general, Ferdinand Ngoh-Ngoh, believed to be the “de facto president”, as the possible vice president-in-waiting.

还有比亚的儿子弗兰克·比亚,他可能会得到父亲在喀麦隆南部和中部强大根据地的支持。但他缺乏政治经验。

There is also Biya’s son, Franck Biya, who would likely enjoy support from his father’s strong base in southern and central Cameroon. But he lacks political experience.

阅读媒体原文 ↗