加拿大帝国商业银行（CIBC）的策略师警告称，美国资金市场面临风险，可能在 2027 年 6 月强制性央行清算日常交易的关键截止日期前，出现波动且仓促的“争抢”局面。
US funding markets risk facing a volatile, last-minute “scramble” to meet a key 2027 deadline for mandatory central clearing of daily transactions, strategists at Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce warned.
根据国际掉期与衍生品协会（ISDA）的一份报告，距离 2027 年 6 月的截止日期仅剩八个月，回购协议的清算量在今年头几个月放缓后已趋于平稳。由 Michael Cloherty 领导的 CIBC 策略师在周五的一份报告中写道，这一下降“令人深感沮丧”。
Just eight months ahead of the June 2027 deadline, clearing volumes of repurchase agreements have flattened after slowing in the first months of the year, according to a report from the International Swaps and Derivatives Association. The drop is “deeply disheartening,” CIBC strategists led by Michael Cloherty wrote in a note Friday.
他们写道：“这并非暗示主要参与者不会合规。相反，担忧的是，为实现合规而进行的争抢会扭曲市场定价/产能”，从而在合规日期前后推高回购利率。
“This isn’t to suggest that major players won’t be compliant,” they wrote. “Instead, the concern is that a scramble to become compliant distorts market pricing/capacity,” pushing repo rates higher around the compliance date.
尽管策略师们预计央行清算不会导致定价出现剧烈波动，但 Cloherty 表示，“温和波动”的可能性足够高，主要回购借入方应对冲部分风险。
Even though the strategists don’t expect wild swings in pricing as a result of central clearing, Cloherty said the chances of “moderate moves” are high enough that major repo borrowers should hedge some of their risk.
强制性回购央行清算的截止日期为 6 月 30 日，监管机构警告市场参与者要在截止日期前做好充分准备。尽管如此，仍有若干操作和经济问题悬而未决，包括可能增加央行清算交易的交易成本和抵押品要求的决定。
The deadline for mandatory central clearing of repo is June 30, with regulators warning market participants to be prepared well before then. Still, several operational and economic questions remain unresolved, including decisions that could increase both transaction costs and collateral requirements for centrally cleared trades.
CIBC 策略师写道：“我们认为，市场中相当一部分参与者在清算回购下面临更高成本，因此他们在截止日期临近前才会全面转向清算。”
“We believe that a meaningful portion of the market faces higher costs under cleared repo, so they are waiting until closer to the deadline before fully shifting to clearing,” the CIBC strategists wrote.
据 Curvature Securities 执行副总裁 Scott Skyrm 透露，在本月早些时候举行的国际证券借贷协会（ISLA）会议上，资金管理人表示，央行清算文件工作大约完成了 25%。他们预计到 6 月还将完成另外 25%，这意味着他们启动时可能只有目前一半的交易对手接入了清算框架。
At an International Securities Lending Association conference earlier this month, money managers indicated that roughly 25% of central-clearing documentation has been completed, according to Curvature Securities executive vice president Scott Skyrm. They expect another 25% to be finished by June, meaning they may launch with only half of their current counterparties connected to the clearing framework.
另一个悬而未决的问题是，证券交易委员会（SEC）尚未裁定是否将对离岸交易和关联交易给予广泛的中央清算豁免，这可能会减少潜在的扭曲。
Another issue is waiting for the Securities and Exchange Commission to rule as to whether there will be a broad exemption of offshore and affiliate trades from central clearing, which could reduce potential distortions.
加拿大帝国商业银行（CIBC）的策略师表示，如果大多数关联交易被纳入计算范围，大型银行在实体间转移流动性或抵押品的成本将会上升，机构将需要在整个组织内持有更多流动性。这可能会降低资产负债表的灵活性，并在企业针对新的市场结构完成优化之前，导致压力时期出现更加无序的定价。
If most affiliate trades are counted, it would become more expensive for large banks to shift liquidity or collateral between entities, and institutions would need to hold more liquidity across the organization, the CIBC strategists said. That could reduce balance-sheet flexibility and contribute to more erratic pricing during periods of stress until firms optimize for the new market structure.
策略师表示，与任何监管驱动的变革一样，参与者可能需要时间来适应新框架，这意味着“成长的烦恼”可能会持续到2028年。他们援引了2008年金融危机后推出的《巴塞尔协议III》流动性规则的实施经验作为佐证。
As with any regulatory-driven change, participants may need time to adapt to the new framework, meaning growing pains could persist into 2028, the strategists said, citing lessons learned from the rollout of Basel III liquidity rules that were introduced after the 2008 financial crisis.
他们写道：“尽管有漫长的过渡期，但在银行能够重组以在新规则下优化产能之前，市场扭曲依然显著。”“但那花了数年时间。”
“Despite an extended phase in, there were significant market distortions until banks were able to restructure to optimize capacity under the new rules,” they wrote. “But that took years.”