
比尔·盖茨警告称,人工智能可能引发长达二十年的经济和社会动荡,即使该技术得到成功管理,也会扰乱就业和生活。
Bill Gates warned that artificial intelligence could trigger two decades of economic and social upheaval, disrupting jobs and life even if the technology is managed successfully.
微软联合创始人盖茨在周四发布的《Decoder》播客访谈中表示,向人工智能驱动型经济的过渡将产生赢家和输家,可能重塑就业格局,并引发关于人们在社会中角色的问题。
In an interview with the Decoder podcast posted Thursday, the Microsoft co-founder said the transition to an AI-driven economy would create winners and losers, potentially reshaping employment and raising questions about people's roles in society.
现年70岁的盖茨说:“我最大的担忧是这20年的过渡期,届时将出现赢家和输家,并伴随大量动荡。”他补充称,社会必须先应对这场动荡,才有可能进入一个丰裕时代。
"My big concern is this 20-year transition period, where they'll have winners and losers and a lot of disruption," said Gates, 70, adding that society would have to navigate the upheaval before potentially entering an era of abundance.
他将这一时间框架描述为一种估算,而非确切预测,并承认过渡期可能因技术进步和关于放缓发展的决策而缩短或延长。
He described the timeframe as an estimate rather than a firm prediction, acknowledging that the transition could be shorter or longer depending on technological advances and decisions about slowing development.
盖茨表示,人工智能和类人机器人的进步最终可能让机器承担人类执行的大部分体力劳动,包括建房、种粮,甚至实施手术。
Gates said advances in AI and humanoid robotics could eventually allow machines to perform much of the physical labor carried out by humans, including building homes, growing food, and even performing surgery.
虽然这些进步可能减少商品和服务的短缺,但他建议社会或许应有意将某些活动保留给人类,包括育儿、烹饪、艺术和体育。
While the advances could reduce shortages of goods and services, he suggested societies might deliberately reserve certain activities for humans, including childcare, food preparation, arts, and sports.
这位亿万富翁慈善家还强调了人工智能在医疗和农业领域的潜在益处,但警告称,政府和社会尚未为其快速发展做好充分准备。
The billionaire philanthropist also highlighted AI's potential benefits in healthcare and agriculture but warned that governments and society are not adequately prepared for its rapid development.
他敦促加强政府监管和技术防范措施,以应对网络攻击和生物威胁,并认为仅靠人工智能公司无法承担管理风险的责任。
He urged stronger government oversight and technical safeguards against cyberattacks and biological threats, arguing that AI companies alone cannot be responsible for managing the risks.
盖茨还警告称,即使在最有利的情况下,人工智能的发展也可能带来人类历史上最动荡的时期之一。
Gates also warned that even under the most favorable circumstances, AI's development could bring one of the most tumultuous periods in human history.
他说:“我讨厌在这个问题上带来令人担忧的消息,但不告诉人们这件事即将到来会更糟。作为人类,我们可以选择如何塑造它。”
"I hate being the bearer of concerning news on this, but it's even worse not to tell people that this is coming. We have choices as humans to make about how we shape it," he said.