中国正面临信用卡逾期激增的局面，而这一波浪潮的源头出人意料：中年借款人。他们表面看起来像是模范公民，拥有大学学历和稳定的公共部门工作。
China is facing a surge in credit card delinquencies from a seemingly unlikely source: middle-aged borrowers who otherwise look like model citizens, with university educations and secure public-sector jobs.
中国银行曾争相向这一群体放贷，坚信他们能轻松偿还账单。但在经济放缓的背景下，违约率飙升，迫使贷款机构加大力度处置不良贷款组合。
Chinese banks once rushed to lend to this group, confident they would easily be able to pay their bills. But defaults are now rising so quickly amid an economic slowdown that lenders are ramping up efforts to dispose of their non-performing loan portfolios.
过去一个季度，在银行业信用资产登记流转中心——中国银行和消费金融公司挂牌交易不良债务组合的官方平台上，新登记不良贷款组合的价值环比激增约 50%。
The past quarter saw a roughly 50 per cent jump in the value of non-performing loans registered on the Banking Credit Assets Registration and Circulation Centre – China’s official platform where banks and consumer finance firms list and trade non-performing debt portfolios.
2026 年第三季度，新登记不良贷款组合价值（含本金和利息）达到 1481 亿元人民币（约合 222 亿美元）。其中，信用卡逾期债务占比 35.2%，成为最大单一品类。
The value of newly registered bad-loan portfolios reached 148.1 billion yuan (US$22.2 billion) in the third quarter of 2026, including principal and interest. Credit card arrears accounted for 35.2 per cent of that volume, making it the largest single category.
仅 10 月份，截至周四已有 82 个新组合在该平台挂牌。大多数贷款机构表示，逾期持卡人的平均年龄在 40 至 50 岁之间。平安银行等机构则直接将这些借款人描述为“中年人”。
In October alone, 82 new portfolios had been listed on the platform as of Thursday. Most lenders said the average age of the delinquent cardholders was between 40 and 50. Others, such as Ping An Bank, simply described the borrowers as “middle-aged”.
分析师和银行业内人士称，这些数据反映出一个日益增长的趋势：中年持卡人承担着最高的信用风险。这一情况与美国形成鲜明对比，在美国，信用卡违约长期以来一直与年轻人联系在一起。
Analysts and banking industry insiders say the figures are part of a growing trend, with middle-aged cardholders carrying the highest credit risks. The situation stands in stark contrast to the United States, where credit card defaults have long been associated with young people.
根据纽约联储 2 月发布的一份报告，在 2025 年最后一个季度，20 至 39 岁借款人的严重逾期转化率持续高于年长群体。主要驱动因素包括更高的信用使用率和更薄弱的现金缓冲。
According to a February report by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, borrowers aged 20 to 39 continued to show higher serious delinquency transition rates than older cohorts in the final quarter of 2025. Key drivers included higher credit usage and thinner cash buffers.
当居民面临收入或就业风险时，违约率自然会攀升。拥有数十年中国信用卡行业经验的独立分析师董正表示，中美差异部分源于一个简单的人口现实：中年人构成了中国信用卡用户的核心群体，而年轻借款人现在倾向于青睐网络借贷服务。
When residents face risks to their incomes or jobs, default rates are naturally bound to climbLiao Zhiming, Huayuan Securities Dong Zheng, an independent analyst with decades of experience in China’s credit card sector, says the China-US divergence is partly driven by a simple demographic reality: middle-aged people form the core base of credit card users in China, while younger borrowers now tend to favour online lending services.
“当经济动能减弱时，40多岁的人群成为脆弱群体之一，”他说。“他们通常背负房贷，并面临赡养家庭和抚养子女的义务。”一家中资国有银行上海分行信用卡业务负责人表示，大多数逾期持卡人在催收过程中指出，是遭遇了大幅降薪或裁员。
“And when economic momentum fades, those in their 40s become one of the vulnerable groups,” he said. “They typically carry housing mortgages and face obligations to support their families and raise children.”According to a manager overseeing credit card operations at the Shanghai branch of a Chinese state-owned bank, most delinquent cardholders pointed to steep salary cuts or lay-offs during debt collection.
“发生这种情况时，他们想保住房子，”这位人士说，他因未获授权公开评论而要求匿名。“所以他们优先偿还房贷和家庭开支。信用卡逾期只会损害他们的信用记录，几乎没有实质性的即时影响。”这位人士补充道，债务人的画像往往令人意外。
“When that happens, they want to hold onto their homes,” said the person, who spoke on condition of anonymity as he was not authorised to comment publicly. “So they prioritise mortgage repayments and family expenses. Overdue credit card bills only hurt their credit profiles, with little tangible immediate impact.”The profile of the debtors is often a surprise, the person added.
“我们看到越来越多的逾期持卡人，从外界视角看拥有看似稳定、甚至体面的工作——例如在上海的国有企业或政府部门任职，”他说。多家贷款机构披露的不良贷款组合细节描绘了类似的图景。
“We are seeing a growing number of delinquent cardholders who hold what look like stable, even decent jobs from an outside perspective – for example, at Shanghai government-owned enterprises or government departments,” he said. The details disclosed in several lenders’ bad-loan portfolios paint a similar picture.
8月，总部位于北京的中国光大银行挂牌了一笔价值超100亿元人民币的不良贷款组合，并指出该组合“持有大专及以上学历借款人占比较高”。
In August, Beijing-based China Everbright Bank listed a non-performing loan portfolio worth more than 10 billion yuan, noting that it had “a high share of borrowers holding college diplomas or above”.
东部地区另一家贷款机构江苏溧水农村商业银行将其组合中的债务人描述为具有“较强的专业能力”，意味着其偿债潜力“相对较高”。
Jiangsu Lishui Rural Commercial Bank, another lender from eastern China, described the debtors in its portfolio as having “strong professional capabilities”, which meant their repayment potential was “relatively high”.
独立分析师董某表示，行业当前的许多问题源于中国在2010年代中期的信用卡使用热潮。
Dong, the independent analyst, said many of the industry’s current issues stemmed from China’s boom in credit card usage in the mid-2010s.
据董某介绍，当时为了快速扩大客户群，贷款机构设定了极低的申请门槛，尤其是针对在政府机关或国有企业工作的申请人。
Back then, lenders set very low application thresholds to rapidly grow their customer bases, especially for applicants working at government agencies or state-owned enterprises, according to Dong.
一位银行业内人士也表达了类似观点。“银行天然信任这些借款人，将其视为优质客户，”他说。“在背景审查宽松得多的情况下，风险多年前就已埋下。”在此背景下，中国贷款机构正竞相剥离不良贷款。今年前九个月，在银行业信用资产登记流转中心登记的不良资产包总价值达3222亿元，同比增长26.4%。展望未来，观察人士预计信用卡不良贷款率将维持高位。
The banking industry source echoed this view. “Banks have an inherent trust in these borrowers and treat them as high-quality clients,” he said. “With far laxer background checks, the risks were sown years ago.”Against this backdrop, Chinese lenders are now racing to offload non-performing loans. In the first nine months of this year, portfolios worth a total of 322.2 billion yuan were registered on the Banking Credit Assets Registration and Circulation Centre, up 26.4 per cent year on year. Looking ahead, observers expect credit card bad-loan ratios to stay elevated.
武汉华源证券分析师廖志明指出，不良贷款堆积叠加监管要求收紧，促使更多中国贷款机构收紧新发信用卡审批。
Analyst Liao Zhiming at Wuhan-based Huayuan Securities noted that mounting bad loans paired with tougher regulatory requirements had prompted more Chinese lenders to tighten new credit card issuance.
“即便如此，由于早年审批标准宽松，该比率仍将维持高位，”廖志明说。
“Even so, the ratio will remain high because of lenient approval standards in earlier years,” Liao said.
“从根本上说，这已成为一个社会问题。当居民面临收入或就业风险时，违约率自然会攀升。”
“At its core, this is a social issue now. When residents face risks to their incomes or jobs, default rates are naturally bound to climb.”