在欧洲股市动荡时期，瑞士超防御性大公司的股票成为了一个亮点。
Shares of Switzerland’s ultra-defensive big companies are a bright spot in a tumultuous period for European equity markets.
追踪该国20只最大、流动性最好股票的瑞士市场指数本月已上涨4.6%，而其欧元区同行欧洲斯托克50指数则下跌了3.2%。近八个百分点的超额表现是该瑞士基准指数自2020年3月（当时投资者寻求避险以应对新冠疫情冲击）以来的最大值。
The Swiss Market Index, which tracks the country’s 20 largest and most liquid stocks, has risen 4.6% this month while its euro-area counterpart, the Euro Stoxx 50, has fallen 3.2%. That outperformance of almost eight percentage points is the most by the Swiss benchmark since March 2020, when investors sought shelter from the shocks of the Covid-19 pandemic.
这一涨幅表明，面对不断上升的借贷成本、对人工智能交易的怀疑以及法国和西班牙等国的政治动荡，投资者正在欧洲境内削减风险。
The gain shows how investors are paring back risk within Europe in the face of rising borrowing costs, skepticism around the artificial intelligence trade and political turmoil in countries like France and Spain.
这三家最大的公司推动了这一表现。制药商罗氏控股公司和诺华公司在10月份分别上涨了12%和6.7%。全球最大的食品公司雀巢公司上涨了10%。这三家防御型中坚力量贡献了该基准指数本月的所有涨幅。
The three biggest companies have driven the performance. Drugmakers Roche Holding AG and Novartis AG are up 12% and 6.7%, respectively, in October. The world’s largest food company, Nestlé SA, has rallied 10%. The three defensive stalwarts account for all of the benchmark’s advance this month.
瑞士的强势反映了欧洲更广泛地向所谓的防御性股票转变，这些股票的命运不会随着经济周期的大起大落而剧烈波动。投资者正在青睐那些利润率高、资产负债表强劲且受借贷成本上升影响较小的公司。鉴于罗氏、诺华和雀巢占该指数价值的近一半，瑞士市场指数是这种转变的最大受益者之一。
Switzerland’s strength mirrors a broader pivot in Europe toward so-called defensives, whose fortunes don’t rise and fall as much with the cycles of the economy. Investors are favoring high-profitability companies with strong balance sheets that are less exposed to rising borrowing costs. The SMI is one of the biggest beneficiaries of that shift, given that Roche, Novartis and Nestlé account for almost half the index’s value.
EFG资产管理公司瑞士股票主管达米安·布克哈特表示：“投资者喜欢瑞士股票的防御性，并正在积极寻找拥挤的AI交易的替代品。医疗健康曾是AI交易的资金来源，现在这一趋势正在逆转。”美国银行的最新基金经理调查也显示，市场对瑞士股票的情绪显著改善，净16%的受访者表示这是他们最青睐的欧洲股票市场。
“Investors like the defensiveness of Swiss stocks and are actively looking for alternatives to the crowded AI trades,” said Damian Burkhardt, head of Swiss equities at EFG Asset Management. “Healthcare was the funding sector for the AI trade and that is reversing now.”Bank of America Corp.’s latest fund manager survey also showed a sharp improvement in sentiment toward Swiss stocks, with a net 16% of respondents saying it’s their most preferred European equity market.
该指数较小成分股的股价也有所上涨，其中香精香料制造商奇华顿公司和皮肤病学公司高德美集团涨幅最大。与此同时，瑞士市场指数中只有四只股票（全都是周期性公司）本月出现下跌。
Shares of smaller index constituents also have gained, with fragrance maker Givaudan SA and dermatology company Galderma Group AG rising the most. Meanwhile, only four stocks in the SMI — all cyclical companies — are in the red this month.
此前，瑞士指数经历了一段低迷期，该指数因对今年在能源和科技领域的赢家曝光度有限而闻名。在本十年中，按当地货币计算（含股息），瑞士市场指数的回报率为69%，表现落后于翻了一番的欧洲斯托克50指数。
The change in fortunes follows a dry spell for the Swiss index, which is notorious for its limited exposure to this year’s winners in energy and technology. This decade, the SMI has returned 69% in local-currency terms including dividends, underperforming the Euro Stoxx 50, which has doubled.
数据显示，此次反弹也反映了投资者对瑞士市场指数公司2027年加速盈利增长的信心，预计该增长率为10%，将几乎是今年预期增速的两倍。
The rally also reflects investor confidence over SMI companies’ accelerating earnings growth for 2027, which at 10% is set to be almost twice as strong as what is penciled in for this year, according to data .
可以肯定的是，审视瑞士市场指数的估值会让人对这次反弹还能持续多久产生疑问。与过去十年相比——无论是绝对值还是相对于在近两年中最昂贵的欧洲斯托克50指数而言，最新的一波利好已将该基准指数推回了可被视为昂贵的区间。
To be sure, a look at the SMI’s valuation raises questions how much further the rally has to go. The latest boon has pushed the benchmark back into what can be considered expensive territory when comparing to the past decade — both in absolute terms and relative to the Euro Stoxx 50, against which it is the most expensive in almost two years.
瑞士出口依赖型大盘股的盈利前景尤其因瑞士法郎走软而得到改善，目前瑞士法郎对美元的汇率处于2025年上半年以来的水平。过去七个月里，该货币对欧元也有所走弱，尽管本月由于交易员寻求对冲欧元区（尤其是法国）政治紧张局势的风险，该货币已收复了部分失地。
The earnings outlook for Switzerland’s export-dependent large-cap stocks has particularly been brightened by the weakening Swiss franc, which now trades versus the dollar at levels last seen in the first half of 2025. The currency also has weakened against the euro over the past seven months, though it’s recovered some of those losses this month as traders sought a hedge against political tensions in the euro area, particularly in France.
萨拉辛银行股票策略师沃尔夫·冯·罗特贝格表示，瑞士股市的表现通常取决于利率、美元以及见顶宏观周期，他在本月将该国的评级上调至跑赢大盘。
Swiss equity performance typically rests on interest rates, the dollar as well as a peaking macro cycle, according to Bank J Safra Sarasin equity strategist Wolf von Rotberg, who upgraded the country to outperform this month.
冯·罗特贝格说：“这三个因素最近都对瑞士市场指数有利。月初的行情反转是在美国宏观动能见顶的背景下出现的，为饱受打击的瑞士股市复苏提供了完美的背景。”
“All three factors have lately worked in the SMI’s favor,” von Rotberg said. “The roll-over at the beginning of the month came on the back of a peak in US macro momentum and provided the perfect backdrop for a recovery in beaten-up Swiss equities.”